USC's Cody Kessler Emerging as One of 2015 NFL Draft's Top Quarterback Prospects

The consensus among media draft analysts, from ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay (both subscription required) to CBS Sports’ Rob Rang and Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, is that Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Florida State’s Jameis Winston are not only the top two quarterbacks eligible for the 2015 NFL draft, but two of the best overall prospects.

After Mariota and Winston, the door is wide open for another quarterback prospect to emerge as the 2015 draft’s No. 3 signal-caller. No one has yet, but USC’s Cody Kessler is one overlooked passer who is quietly making a case for himself.

UCLA’s Brett Hundley, Michigan State’s Connor Cook, Notre Dame’s Everett Golson and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott are the quarterback prospects most frequently labeled as being in the next tier. They are all quarterbacks with intriguing physical tools and who have been very impressive in their best games this year, but they have been beset overall by inconsistency and turnovers.

Kessler does not have the physical upside of those more often-discussed prospects, but he has had a fantastic junior season thus far in which he displayed significant improvement and polish. For a team looking for a potential quick fix at the quarterback position but not in position to draft Mariota or Winston, Kessler just might be the right fit as a Day 2 pick, should he declare for the 2015 draft.

Why Is Kessler Being Overlooked?

It’s unusual for a quarterback at Southern California, one of the most well-known programs in college football, to be putting up some of the best statistics in college football yet still be flying under the radar.

Kessler currently ranks fourth in the Football Bowl Subdivision in quarterback rating (169.0) and completion percentage (70.2), according to CFBStats.com. Only Mariota, with 29 touchdown passes and two interceptions, has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio—among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 15 touchdowns this year—than Kessler (29 touchdowns, three interceptions).

Despite breaking a school record with seven touchdown passes in a game this year against Colorado, at a university that has had six quarterbacks drafted—including three top-10 overall picks—since 2003, Kessler has not generated the buzz of many of the other top senior and junior passers in college football.

It’s seemingly as though “no one expects the junior to leave school early,” as Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times suggested this week after talking to NFL scouts.

It might very well be in Kessler’s best interest to return to USC for his senior season—outside of Mariota and Winston, there are no quarterbacks with remaining collegiate eligibility who should jump to the NFL without seriously considering the pros and cons of declaring for the draft after this season.

Even so, “scouts are beginning to evaluate [Kessler],” according to Farmer.

The senior class of collegiate quarterbacks appears to offer no early-round picks, and the junior class is full of players like Cook, who has a high ceiling but said on The Dan Patrick Show (h/t Detroit Free Press) he intends to return to school, and would be smart to do so.

Considering that, a player who has improved significantly like Kessler has this year should not have his pro potential ignored.

Why It’s Time to Pay Attention to Kessler

When Kessler is auditioning for NFL teams, whether that be in the 2015 draft or in 2016, he will have to fight the stigma of the “game manager” label he seems destined to have stuck to him.

A 6’1”, 210-pound player with limited athleticism, Kessler lacks outstanding physical traits and is not going to be a dual-threat NFL quarterback.

That said, Kessler has a stronger arm than people might think. He has efficient throwing mechanics and regularly generates significant velocity on his downfield passes.

In Kessler’s most recent game, a 38-30 win for USC over California, the following 32-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver George Farmer—which traveled nearly 50 yards through the air—was a prime example of the quarterback’s ability to sling the ball deep with zip.

Screenshot from ESPN.com video, illustrated by author

More important than Kessler’s deep ball, which is not awe-striking but still effective, is his ability to fit intermediate throws with precise timing in between tight windows.

Also from USC’s most recent game against California, the following 10-yard touchdown pass on a diamond-angle route by junior wide receiver and potential early-round draft pick Nelson Agholor, was an evident display of skill in that area.

Skeptics might note that those two examples of throws came against a Golden Bears passing defense that has literally allowed 68 more passing yards per game than any other defense in the FBS. As impressive as Kessler was in his 371-yard, four-touchdown performance last Thursday night, he was expected to be given his opponent.

With multiple games coming up against tougher opponents, including UCLA on Saturday and Notre Dame next week, Kessler will have to show that he can continue to make plays of that degree as the competition rises.

Nonetheless, the throws above would be impressive against any opponent, and seem to be signs of continued improvement from a player who threw for 344 yards and four touchdowns in the Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State at the end of his sophomore season and has continued to play very good football ever since.

One of the most important aspects of evaluating a prospect at any position is assessing how well that player has improved. Since no drafted player is viewed as a finished product, scouts want to see that a player continuously gets better as his collegiate years progress.

That has happened with Kessler, whose play in 2013 prior to the Las Vegas Bowl was average enough that he had to compete with redshirt freshman Max Browne during spring practice in order to retain the starting quarterback job. His improvement over the past year did not only make him USC’s clear-cut starter, but also a player who is no longer (or at least should no longer) be an NFL afterthought.

As an unnamed NFL scout noted in the aforementioned article by Farmer, one of the biggest areas in which Kessler has advanced is in his ability to read defenses and find open targets: "[Coach Steve Sarkisian] has done a nice job developing him. He shows good ability to go through his progressions in the pocket. He's not a big kid, but he seems to see the field pretty well, from first to second and even to the third receiver at times."

Kessler still stares down some of his throws, but with noticeably less frequency than he did in previous years.

The quarterback also does a nice job of consistently keeping his eyes downfield, looking for targets, even when he is pressured and/or on the run.

Although it’s a safe bet Kessler won’t wow anyone with his speed running a 40-yard dash, he shows good ability to extend plays outside the pocket and make downfield throws on the move.

Kessler’s biggest selling point might be his lack of mistakes, as evidenced by his having thrown only three interceptions in 339 passing attempts this season.

While Kessler’s ball placement is not always perfect, it’s rare to see him make a throw to any level that is badly off the mark. He has a clear understanding of how to throw the ball with anticipation, while his velocity enables him to drive the ball to his target.

If Kessler Declares, Where Will He End Up in the Draft?

As noted before, Kessler’s draft stock will be at least in part determined by how strongly he finishes the season.

With his next two games each being high-profile matchups, and against quarterbacks (Hundley and Golson) with whom he could be competing for draft position, Kessler has multiple opportunities in front of him to capture national attention if he can outduel signal-callers who have been hyped up more extensively to this point.

As much of Kessler’s statistical excellence has been accumulated on throws inside 15 yards, he must continue to showcase that he can connect on challenging downfield passes, without compromising the reliability that has become his resume this year.

There are still some noteworthy flaws in Kessler’s game.

While his consistency in keeping his eyes downfield is a positive trait, he needs to become better at sensing pressure coming toward him to avoid sacks. Additionally, he sometimes tries too hard to keep plays alive, despite being a limited athlete, which also results in getting taken down when he should have just thrown the ball away.

There are some impressive examples in Kessler’s tape of completing passes downfield under pressure and/or using his feet to navigate the pocket to step into throws. Overall, however, his footwork is an area in which he needs further improvement.

Kessler’s not likely to suddenly grow three inches or procure sprinter speed, but he’s been able to improve his game significantly, nonetheless. Given his improvement to date, there’s reason to believe that with continued development, Kessler can work his way through the fixable issues that remain in his game.

From a long-term standpoint, it would likely be best for Kessler if he holds off going pro until 2016 and instead continues his development as a third-year starter for USC in his senior year.

“I think he's a prospect down the road, but I would never encourage a junior, especially a quarterback, to come out,” said the NFL scout quoted by Farmer.

On the other hand, it shouldn’t simply be assumed that Kessler will remain at USC past this year—especially if he finishes the season on a high note.

Kessler will have to overcome the “game manager” stigma, along with the dissent some might have from drafting USC quarterbacks, as recent examples like 2009 first-round pick Mark Sanchez and 2006 first-round pick Matt Leinart failed to meet expectations for the teams that invested in them.

However, every prospect is different. A player shouldn’t simply be judged by those who played his position at a school before him—especially considering that Kessler’s current offensive line at USC is not nearly as effective as the blocking units that Sanchez and Leinart had in front of them during their collegiate years.

Kessler's not a franchise-quarterback prospect in whom a team should be investing a first-round draft pick. His limitations might not keep him from becoming a quality starter, but they do make it less likely that he will emerge as a superstar.

As it currently stands, Kessler should project as a selection between the second and fourth rounds. He might never emerge as a team's long-term starter, but he has enough skill to quite possibly be a pleasant surprise if and when he gets the chance to lead an NFL offense, and his development makes it promising that he could play as a rookie if needed.

All GIFs were made at gfycat.com using videos from YouTube.

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow @Dan_Hope