Projecting the Domino Effect If MLB's Biggest Hot Stove Rumors Come True
When Sir Isaac Newton developed his Third Law of Motion—that every action has an equal and opposite reaction—baseball wasn't even a sport. Yet his theory holds true when it comes to America's pastime, especially when we're talking about transactions.
Despite the fact that a handful of big moves have already been made, the vast majority of the biggest names available during the hot stove league remain in a sort of holding pattern until someone takes action.
When someone does take action—whether it be a player or a team—the rest of dominoes will begin to fall.
Things during the offseason can—and will—change at a frenetic pace, so what's a big rumor today can become an afterthought in the span of a few hours, much less days. It's entirely possible that things play out in completely different fashion than how the following projections lay them out. All it takes is for a different domino to fall first to throw everything back into flux.
But based on what the rumor mill has told us thus far, what we know about the players and teams involved and our gut instincts, here's how we see things playing out if the biggest rumors become reality.
We'll start with the reigning World Series champions.
San Francisco Re-Signs Pablo Sandoval
1 of 8
Is the grass really greener on the other side of the country?
With similar offers on the table from both the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants—five-year deals in the $80 million to $90 million range, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick—Pablo Sandoval answers that question with a definitive no and chooses to re-sign with the Giants.
Ultimately, Sandoval's decision comes down to these indisputable facts: Playing in San Francisco has made him a three-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star and a World Series MVP. Equaling, much less exceeding, that kind of success in Boston is hardly guaranteed.
Boston Signs Jon Lester
2 of 8
With Sandoval off the board, Boston moves quickly to lock up its other top offseason target, former ace Jon Lester.
While most of baseball believed that the team's decision to trade him to Oakland at last year's trade deadline signaled the end of his Red Sox career, neither Lester nor the team ever closed the door on a reunion.
Lester chooses the comfort and familiarity of Boston—both for himself and for his family—over the chance to play the role of savior in Chicago for former Red Sox executives Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.
Chicago Trades for Cole Hamels
3 of 8
After being spurned by the two free agents they coveted the most—Russell Martin and Jon Lester—the Chicago Cubs are faced with a decision: Do they risk being left at the altar a third time in free agency by going after Max Scherzer, or do they look to turn some of their prospects into a legitimate ace for the rotation?
It only takes a reminder of what Epstein told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune at the general manager meetings in Phoenix recently—“You can make mistakes by holding on to your prospects too long”—for their decision to become clear.
The Cubs strike a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for Cole Hamels, agreeing to pick up all the money left on his deal in exchange for not surrendering Javier Baez, Kris Bryant or Addison Russell in the process. A package that includes Albert Almora, C.J. Edwards and others heads back to the Phillies.
Chicago ultimately has to agree to pick up Hamels' 2019 option to get the southpaw to waive his no-trade clause, pushing the total cost to around $110 million. But it's still cheaper than what it would have cost to sign Scherzer, who comes with the additional cost of a compensatory draft pick.
.png?w=256)
New York Signs Max Scherzer
4 of 8
Remember how the New York Yankees said they weren't going to be players for the big-time free agents this winter?
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman says the team's train of thought is quickly changing:
"With a rotation that leads the league in question marks, it's no wonder the Yankees might rethink their original plan. Two weeks ago, the word was no way they would. Later it was upgraded to probably not. And now it seems to be bordering on a maybe.
"
After missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season, and with both Boston and Toronto having made significant additions, the Yankees come to the realization that as presently constituted, their rotation isn't going to allow them to end that drought.
So they strike a deal for the prize of the free-agent pitching market, Max Scherzer.
Sure, he costs the club nearly $200 million to sign, and his deal takes him well into his late 30s, right around the time when most veterans become shells of the players that they once were. But this is the Bronx, where any season that doesn't result in a World Series championship is considered a failure.
Baltimore Trades Ubaldo Jimenez for Nick Swisher
5 of 8
As negotiations between Baltimore and two of the team's biggest bats—Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis—continue, the Orioles decide to pick up some insurance in the event that one or both wind up leaving as free agents.
Baltimore strikes a deal with Cleveland, the seeds of which were planted at the general manager meetings, flipping one bad contract (Ubaldo Jimenez) for another (Nick Swisher). It's a perfect match, with the Orioles looking to move Jimenez and the Indians looking to bolster their rotation and move Swisher.
The money on their deals isn't too far off: Swisher has two years and $30 million left on his contract (not including a vesting option for 2017), while Jimenez is due $38.75 million over the next three years.
Neither Jimenez nor Swisher has lived up to expectations, and a change of scenery might be exactly what both players need to get going once again. The Indians have been linked to Jimenez since the beginning of November and were known to be looking to flip Swisher for another bad contract, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
Lest we forget: It was only two years ago that Jimenez was arguably the ace of Cleveland's rotation, going 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, while Swisher owns a career .914 OPS at Camden Yards, his highest mark at any American League ballpark.
The move winds up being a shrewd one by the Orioles, because...
Seattle Signs Nelson Cruz
6 of 8
While the Orioles stood pat on their three-year offer to Cruz, Seattle decided that it was worth the risk to give the right-handed slugger a four-year pact (with a team option for a fifth year), something no other team was willing to do.
Baseball's reigning home run champion, Cruz, who has been on Seattle's radar for more than a year, gives the Mariners the powerful right-handed bat that the team sought to put in the heart of its lineup along with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.
Houston Signs Hanley Ramirez
7 of 8
With Seattle signing Cruz, Hanley Ramirez finds his options dwindling and accepts an offer from the one remaining team that, according to Rosenthal, seems to be willing to let him keep playing shortstop—at least for now—the Houston Astros.
While he'll eventually be pushed off the position by top prospect Carlos Correa, signing Ramirez accomplishes two things for the Astros: It bolsters the American League's second-lowest scoring lineup and gives fans another reason to come out to Minute Maid Park, where the team routinely played in front of a nearly half-empty ballpark, according to ESPN.
Of course, there's a downside to his arrival as well. The team's defense in the middle of the infield has gone from shaky to downright terrible, and the double-play combination of Ramirez and Jose Altuve promises to provide as many bloopers defensively as it does highlights offensively.
But for a team that needed to make a big splash and a fading star who needed to land a multiyear deal to protect against his shaky injury history and defensive issues, this is a perfect match.
Kansas City Signs Torii Hunter
8 of 8
While signing Cruz or Ramirez was never really an option for Kansas City, that two fewer sluggers remain available on the market forces the team's hand. Adding some power to a lineup that hit fewer home runs (95) than any other team during the regular season was a necessity for the Royals.
Torii Hunter, even at the age of 39, has power left in his right-handed bat, coming off his 14th consecutive season of double-digit home runs.
That he can play right field and comes on a short-term deal, with incumbent (but powerless) right fielder Nori Aoki still a free agent as he seeks a three-year pact, is an added bonus—and a reason why the Royals, per Heyman, favored Hunter over Aoki all along.
The Royals can split Hunter's time between the outfield and designated hitter spots, keeping his body fresh and his bat productive. Regarded around baseball as one of the best teammates and clubhouse guys in the game, his addition to a young roster that reached the World Series will prove to be invaluable.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
.png?w=480)
