NFL Predictions Week 12: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming Schedule

As we get deeper into the season, wagering on NFL games is becoming increasingly frustrating, as each week seems to be more unpredictable than the last. In Week 11, bettors experienced a bevy of unexpected conclusions that, in turn, lightened many pockets.

In an effort to stop the bleeding and add some valuable coin back into the bank, we must begin to focus on the spreads to completely avoid going forward. With the nightmarish lines out of the way, bettors can give more favorable lines their full attention.

Before we delve into a couple of contests to keep off your betting schedule in Week 12, let's first overview the entire slate of games, their corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -7	Chiefs	The Chiefs have a good defense, and the Raiders aren't good at scoring.
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Falcons	See analysis below.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -10.5	Titans	After giving up 53 points in Week 11, the Eagles don't look capable of an 11-point win.
Detroit at New England	NE -7	Patriots	The Patriots are hands down the league's best team, and the Lions' struggling offense won't keep up.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -2.5	Bengals	The Bengals are coming into Houston with a full head of steam after defeating the Saints.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -9.5	Packers	Aaron Rodgers is throwing touchdowns in his sleep right now. Teddy Bridgewater isn't.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -6	Buccaneers	Beware of Mike Evans against a soft Bears secondary.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14	Jaguars	After sustaining several injuries, the Colts may not be able to blow the doors off in this one.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	Jets	The Bills struggled against the Dolphins, and the Jets are nicely rested coming off a bye week.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -6.5	Cardinals	Arizona's run defense will force Seattle to pass too often. That's not the Seahawks' bread and butter.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -5.5	Chargers	See analysis below.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -8	49ers	The 49ers defense must be chomping at the bit to get its hands on a terrible Redskins offense.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7	Broncos	Regardless of injuries, Peyton Manning has enough time to get back on track before Week 12.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3	Cowboys	DeMarco Murray will run all over New York, and the Cowboys will win big.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -4	Saints	Despite losing two straight, it's just so tough to bet against Drew Brees at home.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 17.

Week 12 Spreads to Avoid

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The reason to stay away from this game is simple: Both of these teams are completely unpredictable.

Let's start with Cleveland. The Browns completely shut down the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, earning a spot atop the highly competitive AFC North. Cleveland was expected to continue its winning ways in Week 11 against first-time starter Ryan Mallett and the Houston Texans. Nope.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer was awful against a porous Houston defense, completing just 20 of his 50 passing attempts. He did throw for 330 yards, but his lone touchdown was also accompanied by an interception and a passer rating of 61.3.

The return of Josh Gordon further adds to a mysterious offense. According to Albert Breer of NFL Network, head coach Mike Pettine is just as unsure about the wide receiver's condition:

Meanwhile, the Browns defense had zero answer for Houston's ground game. With Arian Foster shelved for the week, Alfred Blue got the start, and he pummeled Cleveland's defense for 156 rushing yards just one week after that same defense shut down Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill.

Atlanta is roughly in the same situation. The Falcons are on a two-game winning streak after dropping five straight; however, neither of the team's wins have been impressive.

Matt Ryan and Co. outlasted the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10 and did the same against the Carolina Panthers in Week 11. Both of those teams featured bad pass defenses, but it will be a completely different story against a good Browns secondary ranked 10th in the league against the pass. Will Atlanta be able to keep it up?

It's easy to make a case for both Cleveland and Atlanta in this one. Bettors should make the smart move and avoid this contest completely.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Browns 23

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-5.5)

Harry How/Getty Images

The Rams resemble Clark Kent one week then turn around and become Superman the next. That's the biggest reason to avoid this game—we simply don't know which version of this St. Louis team will show up.

The easiest way to look at how wildly inconsistent the Rams are is to look back at their most recent contests. The results are shocking:

Week	Opponent	Outcome
6	vs. San Francisco 49ers	L, 31-17
7	vs. Seattle Seahawks	W, 28-26
8	at Kansas City Chiefs	L, 34-7
9	at San Francisco 49ers	W, 13-10
10	at Arizona Cardinals	L, 31-14
11	vs. Denver Broncos	W, 22-7

Here's an interesting stat from that stretch, via NFL on ESPN:

That's just crazy. While that stretch of schedule was very difficult, the results varied so tremendously it's difficult to gauge just how good this Rams team actually is.

Let's take Week 11 for example. Shaun Hill looked great under center, completing 20 of his 29 passing attempts for 220 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while rookie Tre Mason finally produced from the backfield, carrying 29 times for 113 yards. The team's defense fared nicely against an injury-plagued Denver Broncos offense as well.

Still, it's difficult to look back just one week prior when the entire St. Louis team looked out of whack against the Arizona Cardinals. There just doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason to the Rams' inconsistency.

Meanwhile, the Rams are up against a Chargers team that has been struggling on the offensive side of the ball recently. San Diego laid an egg against the Miami Dolphins in Week 9, and after a Week 10 bye, it only managed 13 points against the Oakland Raiders on Sunday.

San Diego's defense played much better following the bye week, but it's too soon to tell if that performance was simply an outlier against a bad Raiders offense. The Chargers come with nearly as much mystery as the Rams. Stay away from betting on this game.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Rams 16