Fantasy Baseball Stars Who Could Gain, Lose the Most in Free Agency
Free agency will change the way fantasy baseball managers look at several notable names heading into the 2015 season.
In a perfect world, individual talent wins out regardless of outside factors and surroundings. The weak link doesn't sink the group, and each player's product reflects his personal ability.
Of course, that's never the case. A player is often only as valuable as the situation allows, as the right role is needed before anyone can become a fantasy phenom. That premium relief pitcher with no saves is just another guy. That solid starter pitching in a bandbox is useless, and that one-dimensional slugger relegated to part-time status can't optimize his power ceiling.
Luckily for them, the open market allows them to shift scenery during the offseason. If certain players pick the right places, their value skyrockets. Meanwhile, others are more likely to drop down the rankings unless they stumble upon the perfect destinations.
These guys have the most on the line during free agency.
Gain: Hanley Ramirez
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Wherever he goes, Hanley Ramirez holds fantasy gravitas. He's a shortstop who can fill all five traditional categories at an elite level, occasionally with elite success.
Playing for the Los Angels Dodgers, however, does not maximize his appeal. He has a great supporting cast, but Dodger Stadium stymied run production in 2014, rating No. 27 in ESPN.com's list of MLB park factors.
A certain New York Yankees shortstop retired, creating a captain-sized hole Stephen Drew might not be equipped to fill. Do the Yankees ever spend money in free agency?
The Bronx Bombers would certainly add some zest to Ramirez's fantasy worth. Another dream destination is the Toronto Blue Jays, who reached out to the free agent according to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi.
They already have Jose Reyes manning shortstop, but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that Ramirez is willing to play "wherever there is a need." Eventually leaving shortstop behind will hurt his value, but that's not a problem to worry about now. Instead, celebrate the prospect of his gaining eligibility at third base along with short.
Note: Not all new potential suitors represent an upgrade. Signing with the Seattle Mariners neutralizes his stock at best. He'd swap spacious fields but play for a slightly inferior offense, albeit one that would improve with his services at short.
Ramirez's injury and inconsistency concerns are other problems MLB clubs should fret about, but the barren wasteland that is shortstop allows him to maintain his status as an upper-echelon choice.
Lose: Torii Hunter
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Torii Hunter’s fantasy value is holding on for dear life, so leaving the Detroit Tigers very well could serve as the final push off the cliff.
With 16 homers at Comerica Park compared to 19 on the road in two seasons with Detroit, his power won’t fade in a new stadium. The problem is that it already did, as he has hit 17 long balls in each of the past two seasons after generating more than 20 in 10 of the 12 previous years.
Set to turn 40 next July, the outfielder isn’t good for more than five steals, which means he’s dependent on average, runs and RBI. His average has dropped in both years with the Tigers, so an investment in Hunter banks on offering plenty of counting numbers in a cushy starting gig.
Leaving Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez behind won’t help his case, so be prepared to slide him down the rankings. Dave Dombrowski already said farewell to Hunter, according to the Detroit Free Press’ George Sipple:
"I called and said it just didn't look like it was going to fit the way the club was getting put together. Thanked him for everything. Absolutely love him. If something changes where we make some changes for one reason or another, that we're not anticipating, we would still be open. It's just probably not much of a fit right now.
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One potential destination is the Kansas City Royals, who hit less homers than anyone last season. Kauffman Stadium’s wide terrain could also send his tally of round-trippers below 15. At this point of his career, Hunter isn’t worth drafting in standard 10- or 12-team mixed leagues that start three outfielders.
Gain: Michael Morse
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In the right locale, Michael Morse will become a late power source to highlight on the pre-draft cheat sheet. In the wrong destination, he'll fall through the cracks as waiver-wire fodder.
At the plate alone, Morse is one of the premier offensive free agents. Through 482 plate appearances in 2014, Morse hit .279/.336/.475 with a 133 Weighted Runs Created Plus (WRC+), which means the metric values him as 33 percent better than the average hitter.
Throw in his lack of speed, defensive inability and subpar performance against left-handing pitching, and Morse's real-life value evaporates. The San Francisco Giants benched him for most of their postseason run in favor of Travis Ishikawa and Juan Perez.
For three World Series games, however, Morse got a test run at the position he was made to play: designated hitter. Fantasy gamers don't care about his defense and can live without the stolen bases if he gets regular plate appearances.
In 2012, when Morse received a career-high 575 turns in the batter's box, he belted 31 home runs for the Washington Nationals. That may be too much to ask for, but 25 is in his grasp if he's given a regular gig as a designated hitter.
Morse's .811 OPS equals Matt Holliday's mark while topping Josh Donaldson, Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence. There's great value here if he can find an American League home.
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Lose: James Shields
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On the surface, leaving the Royals doesn’t seem that bad for James Shields. He can ditch the American League for the National League. Maybe he’ll even find an offense that will give him more run support.
He won’t, however, find another team that can play defense like the Royals. As a team, they led MLB with a 61.1 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) fueled by three Gold Glovers, and could get even better in 2015.
Nori Aoki is a free agent, which means Jarrod Dyson—frequently used as a defensive replacement during the playoffs—will get more playing time if they don’t locate a replacement. Few balls are finding green grass in an outfield patrolled by Dyson, Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain.
Now more than ever, Shields needs that help behind him. His strikeout rate continues to fall, slipping to 7.14 K/9 during 2014. Including a lengthy World Series run, the 32-year-old hurled 252 innings, so don’t be surprised to see his punch-outs decrease again.
He has twice posted ERAs (3.15 in 2013, 3.21 in 2014) lower than his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) clips (3.47 in 2013, 3.59 in 2014), so fantasy gamers would welcome a prolonged stay with the Royals.
Gain: Brandon McCarthy
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Brandon McCarthy saved his season with the Yankees and has the skills to hold his own in Yankee Stadium. Yet staying put dampens his chances of sustaining his late breakout in 2015.
As a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, McCarthy floundered with a 5.01 ERA. That bought him a one-way ticket to New York, where he bounced back with a stellar 2.89 ERA through 14 starts.
The analytically savvy veteran adapted to the change of scenery, limiting his fly-ball percentage to 24.7 percent. Yet the small stadium still made its presence felt from time to time. In seven home starts following the trade, McCarthy posted a 2.40 ERA despite surrendering five home runs.
New York's infield is also in flux, so there's no guarantee fellow midseason acquisitions Stephen Drew and Chase Headley will stick around to grace McCarthy's starts with stellar infield defense. For someone who generated a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate last season, that matters.
Given his 7.88 strikeouts and 1.49 walks per nine innings, he's worth monitoring even if he stays with the Yankees. If he carries over those improvements back to the National League or a pitcher-friendly AL park, he could become a top-40 fantasy starter who will only require a late-round investment.
Lose: Ervin Santana
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After spending nine years in the AL, Ervin Santana shifted to the other side, where he recorded his highest K/9 rate (8.22) since 2008. After experiencing the NL on a one-year lease with the Atlanta Braves, will he leave?
Despite his posting a 3.95 ERA well above his 3.39 FIP while there, Atlanta is still a great place for Santana to make a living. Along with getting to face opposing pitchers, two of MLB’s best defenders, Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward, would have his back.
If he maintains those strikeouts along with his consistent command, Santana’s ERA will get in line with his peripherals given the right environment. An AL return puts that in peril.
A Kansas City reunion, however, presents an interesting scenario, as the top defense led him to a reversal of fortunes in 2013, landing a 3.24 ERA despite a 3.93 FIP. According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the two sides have discussed getting the gang back together.
Switching leagues again is not ideal, but the Royals would at least salvage his value as a late-round option.
Gain: Sergio Romo, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances
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Standard fantasy baseball leagues are slow to adapt to the sabermetric revolution. A middle reliever means just as much to his actual team as the closer, but don't tell that to a fantasy manager scouring for saves.
Unless holds are a category, it takes a truly special reliever to warrant a selection without a closing job. With that in mind, some select pitchers can make the jump from afterthought to top target during free agency.
If a team buys Sergio Romo's past success in the ninth inning and signs him for that role, he becomes a great bounce-back candidate after losing the designation during the season. Despite his 3.72 ERA, Romo still notched a 9.16 K/9 rate, 1.86 BB/9 clip and 0.95 WHIP.
After allowing 18 home runs in the past four years, he yielded seven before the 2014 All-Star break. When that rate normalized, he quietly posted a 1.80 ERA while working a middle-relief role after the break. If someone brings him aboard to collect saves, he's a top-20 fantasy closer.
Andrew Miller doesn't have the past track record some teams stubbornly desire but does boast a 14.87 K/9 rate that ranks second to Aroldis Chapman. According to CBSChicago.com's Bruce Levine, the Chicago White Sox are interested. Such a team with no incumbent closer is the perfect spot to catapult Miller's fantasy stock.
Dellin Betances is one of the previously described truly special relievers that justifies selection without a closer's label. His 1.40 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 130 strikeouts made him a unique fantasy weapon; he even awarded owners with five wins.
Should David Robertson leave the Yankees, Betances immediately jumps to the top tier of fantasy relievers with saves in his reach.
Lose: Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano
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A pair of veteran closers will hit the open market, and it’s no guarantee either will get a chance to rack up saves for fantasy squads next season.
Although Francisco Rodriguez registered a 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 44 saves last season, a .216 batting average in balls in play (BABIP) and 93 percent strand rate certainly helped his cause. The 32-year-old also unraveled with the Milwaukee Brewers, submitting a 3.97 ERA after the All-Star break.
Given those warning signs, prospective suitors should think twice about giving him top dollar. Even if they don’t, his name brand and past accolades could reel in a big-market club to buy him as a premium setup man, stripping him of any fantasy utility.
Rafael Soriano may have to settle for that job description after allowing eight runs in 8.1 September frames. Like Rodriguez, he has past success in the ninth inning, but his 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP won’t compel everyone to line up at his door.
After breaking out with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, Soriano joined the Yankees to serve as a bridge to Mariano Rivera. He could be poised to find a similar situation again.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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