Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 11: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions
Hang tight, fantasy owners. Week 11 marks the second-to-last Sunday of the NFL season that features inactive teams due to bye weeks. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, and fantasy teams will be at full strength once again in short order. Unfortunately, we must deal with roster adjustments a couple more times.
This week, the services of DeMarco Murray, Tony Romo, Justin Forsett, Denard Robinson and others won't be available, so many fantasy enthusiasts will be plagued with difficult roster decisions. Debates over which players to start rage on throughout the week, so let's attempt to put an end to that before Week 11 kicks off.
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Taking matchups, injuries, recent trends and even weather into consideration, here's a look at one fringe player to start, and one to sit, for each fantasy position.
Quarterback
Start 'Em: Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
The 2014 season hasn't been too kind to Kaepernick's fantasy owners. Aside from a stellar performance in Week 6 against the St. Louis Cardinals, the quarterback has put up rather mediocre numbers. Fortunately, a favorable matchup against the New York Giants in Week 11 can put an end to that trend.
New York hasn't been overly stout against opposing signal-callers, allowing an average of 17.1 fantasy points per game to the position. Making matters even better for Kaepernick is the Giants' inability to stop the run as well—they boast the league's worst-ranked run defense, giving up 144.7 yards per game on the ground.
Kaepernick's ability to create plays with his arm and his legs makes him a valuable fantasy starter on Sunday. The quarterback hasn't been running too often this season, but he'll get more than enough chances to rack up yards on the ground against a team that gave up 107 rushing yards and a score to Russell Wilson just one week ago.
Unless you also boast the likes of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or similar top-tier quarterbacks, Kaepernick should be an easy start in Week 11.
Sit 'Em: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
This isn't the week to put any kind of faith in the Bears signal-caller. Cutler has been terrible lately. The quarterback continues to struggle with ball-security issues, and that has led to seven turnovers in the last three weeks. He scored eight or fewer fantasy points in two of those games.
His recent performances are already leading to new, unique scoring methods from analysts such as Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports:
Expect that trend to continue on Sunday, as Cutler will face a Minnesota Vikings defense that has been very good against the pass this season and is fresh off a bye week. The Vikings are allowing an average of just 13.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, the fourth fewest in the league. They haven't allowed more that 15 fantasy points to the position in their four previous games.
Due to Cutler's recent downward trend, he simply can't be trusted against unfavorable matchups going forward. Consider Chicago's quarterback a desperation play in Week 11. Starting him should be avoided if possible.
Running Back
Start 'Em: Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
Here's a name we haven't seen tossed around the fantasy realm in quite some time now. Mathews was lost for a good chunk of the season following a knee injury sustained against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. At first, it appeared as though he'd have a difficult time getting his job back from Branden Oliver, but the rookie has been less than stellar of late.
In fact, according to Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego, Mathews has looked good in practice and will resume his starting role:
While it is to be assumed the running back's carries will be slightly limited, his matchup should still allow for a favorable fantasy output. The Oakland Raiders are giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers this season, allowing an average of 22.2 per game. Even if Mathews sees something in the vicinity of 15 carries, he should still be in line for a solid day.
If you don't own Mathews, be sure to check your league's waiver wire here. Impatient owners dropped him like a bad habit earlier this year, and you could reap the benefits.
Sit 'Em: Joique Bell, Detroit Lions
Bell continues to receive the bulk of carries out of the backfield for the Lions; however, there are multiple factors that are working against him heading into Week 11.
Detroit is a pass-first team, and now that Matthew Stafford has practically all of his weapons at his disposal, the team should be expected to ride the passing game. Bell is also an early-down back, as passing-down responsibilities are relegated to Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick.
A matchup against the Arizona Cardinals only increases the risk of playing Bell this week. The Cardinals are allowing an average of just 11.3 fantasy points to opposing running backs per game, the second fewest in the league. They haven't even given up more than 15 points to the position in a single contest this season.
With the Lions expected to test Arizona through the air, carries should be limited for Bell. His only chance of any kind of fantasy points would be a touchdown, and that's a long shot against a Cardinals team that has only allowed two scores to ball-carriers in its last five games.
Wide Receiver
Start 'Em: Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals
Sanu has been the most consistent wide receiver for the Bengals this season, averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game. Yes, he's coming off his worst showing of the year due to a miserable performance by quarterback Andy Dalton; however, let's go ahead an consider that an outlier—it was Dalton's worst game of his career.
That terrible game led to this anomaly, via Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus:
Even with A.J. Green back in the fold, Sanu isn't seeing a shortage of targets. In Week 9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sanu was targeted eight times and came away with four receptions for 95 yards and a score. He was targeted another seven times in Week 10 against the Cleveland Browns.
This week, Sanu gets a favorable matchup against a New Orleans Saints team that is allowing an average of 24.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Of the Saints' nine contests this season, they gave up at least 25 points in six of them.
Expect New Orleans to roll coverage in Green's direction Sunday, leaving Sanu in man coverage and giving him a great chance to rack up the points for his fantasy owners.
Sit 'Em: Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
Sticking with this Saints-Bengals matchup, Cooks is not the wide receiver fantasy owners will want to roll with on Sunday. Yes, the Bengals haven't been great against the pass this season, allowing 248.9 yards through the air per game. However, that doesn't translate to good fantasy numbers for opposing wide receivers.
Cincinnati is actually giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, allowing an average of just 15.7 per contest. While Cooks is a highly talented rookie pass-catcher, his erratic usage has led to a roller-coaster season. This isn't the matchup to gamble on a big play from the receiver.
Making things even more difficult for Cooks in Week 11 is the possibility of the Saints using a more run-heavy offense than normal. Mark Ingram (a great fantasy start this week, by the way) has been stellar of late, and the Bengals own the league's 31st-ranked run defense.
Cooks certainly has some big games left in him this season; however, Week 11 won't be one of them.
Tight End
Start 'Em: Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams
Cook's speed mixed with his inconsistent usage generally makes him a boom-or-bust play each week. In Week 10, he exploded with 84 yards and a touchdown on just two receptions. Well, there's a good chance he'll do it again Sunday.
The Rams are going up against the Denver Broncos in Week 11. This will most likely mean two things. First, Denver should get out to an early lead, forcing the Rams to pass more. Second, Denver boasts the league's best run defense, making it hard for St. Louis to gain yards on the ground and forcing the team to pass more.
Expect Cook to see plenty of time of the field Sunday, according to these recent statistics from ESPN's Nick Wagoner:
With an expected increase in passing attempts, Cook will have more opportunities to generate solid fantasy numbers against a Broncos team that is giving up an average of 9.8 fantasy points per game, the fifth most in the league.
The one X-factor here will be the return of Shaun Hill under center. Still, Hill is a veteran of the NFL and could look to shake off the rust after a long layoff by looking for a big, friendly target—much like a tight end.
Sit 'Em: Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
A quick, 6'5", 260-pound tight end, Gresham certainly looks the part. Unfortunately, his production hasn't matched his impressive physical traits this season. The tight end has only eclipsed the 50-yard mark once this season and has yet to score a single touchdown.
Considering he's up against a Saints defense in Week 11 that is allowing just 3.4 fantasy points to opposing tight ends per game, the fewest in the league, Gresham isn't worthy of a place in any starting lineup.
Tight ends have only gained more than 46 yards twice this year against the Saints, and the team hasn't given up a touchdown to the position since Week 1. Expect the Bengals to rely heavily on wide receivers and ball-carriers out of the backfield to get the passing game going this week, leaving Gresham by the wayside.
The tight end position is always very thin for fantasy owners, and if one is needed for Week 11, there should be far better options still residing on the waiver wire.
Defense/Special Teams
Start 'Em: Washington Redskins
This is all about the matchup. Washington doesn't have the most prolific defense, giving up an average of 25.4 points per game; however, a contest against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday quickly makes this unit a viable fantasy starter.
Tampa Bay's offense has been horrible this season. The team continues to swap out quarterbacks and can't find a worthy ball-carrier to handle the bulk of the workload. This has led to the Buccaneers allowing an average of 11.0 fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.
While Mike Evans continues to be a threat in the passing game, the Redskins have a better secondary than one may think. Washington is ranked seventh in the league against the pass this season, holding opponents to 222.9 yards per game through the air.
A bad Buccaneers backfield, a shaky quarterback situation and a decent Washington secondary make the Redskins defense a worthy fantasy play in Week 11.
Sit 'Em: San Francisco 49ers
This may seem like a bad choice for a unit to sit. After all, the 49ers are the league's third-ranked defense heading into Week 11. Although, looking closer at their impending matchup against the New York Giants, this play is riskier than you'd think.
Eli Manning has been very efficient this season. He's not the same interception-prone quarterback we've seen in the past. In fact, over his last three games, he's thrown six touchdowns against just one pick. He may have lost Victor Cruz for the season, but rookie Odell Beckham Jr. is filling in just nicely. According to ESPN's Matthew Berry, Rashad Jennings is set to return after missing over a month of action:
His presence in the backfield adds to the offense's firepower as well this week.
Even if the Giants struggle out of the gate, as they have done in recent games, this team is still putting up numbers in garbage time. For example, the Indianapolis Colts blew the doors off this team early in Week 9; however, when the dust settled, the Colts defense was left with just two fantasy points after late Giants touchdowns.
Be sure to take a long, hard look at defenses available on your league's waiver wire before adding San Francisco's defense to your starting lineup.
Kicker
Start 'Em: Nick Novak, San Diego Chargers
San Diego's kicker has been forgotten in fantasy circles after putting up a total of just three points in his last two games. Fortunately, that trend is likely to end in Week 11 against the Raiders.
Oakland is allowing an average of 10.0 fantasy points per game to opposing kickers, the fourth most in the league. With the Chargers fresh off a bye week, expect the offense to be reignited and ready to put up some points on their winless division rival.
The Raiders defense is a bit better than most give it credit for, so expect a few Chargers drives to come to a halt in Oakland territory, bringing Novak into action. A double-digit fantasy performance from this kicker is very much a possibility this week.
Sit 'Em: Matt Prater, Detroit Lions
The Lions are in for another defensive slugfest in Week 11. The Cardinals have been superb on the defensive side of the ball this season, ranking fifth in the league in points against. Needless to say, opposing kickers aren't given many opportunities against this squad, and that has translated into Arizona giving up an average of just 6.2 fantasy points per game to the position.
Making this an even riskier play is the fact Detroit hasn't exactly had much luck with its kickers this season. Prater is heading into his fifth game with the team and has connected on seven of his 10 field-goal attempts.
There are plenty of kickers on the waiver wire each and every week, so do some digging and snatch one up with more upside than Prater.
All fantasy point totals courtesy of ESPN.com and current as of November 14.
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