How Top International Targets Becoming Available Would Impact MLB Free Agency

The New York Yankees made Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka the highest-paid international free agent in baseball history last offseason, signing him to an unprecedented seven-year, $155 million contract (not including the Yankees’ winning bid of $20 million to secure negotiating rights).

This year, Yasmany Tomas is expected to sign the largest contract in baseball history for a Cuban player, with recent reports suggesting the 24-year-old outfielder could receive a deal worth at least $100 million.

The willingness to shell out more money each year to relatively unknown players is a growing trend within Major League Baseball, with teams attempting to capitalize on undeveloped international markets and land impact talents at a bargain price.

At the same time, the increasingly large contracts given to international free agents in recent years, as well as the subsequent validations of those contracts, have ostensibly inspired more players to make the jump to the major leagues, many of them doing so with the free-agent market in mind.

Tomas will dominate the headlines this offseason, but don’t expect his projected record-breaking deal to shake up the free-agent market like it would if he were a middle infielder, positions at which there’s a dearth of available talent.

That's why all eyes will be on respective statuses of Cuban second basemen Jose Fernandez and Hector Olivera moving forward, as both players have reportedly defected (or plan to defect) to pursue a career in MLB. Meanwhile, Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang also will be posted this offseason by his KBO club, and his power could make him a hot commodity on the open market.

So how exactly would Fernandez, Olivera and Kang impact the market for shortstops and second basemen?

Well, Hanley Ramirez represents the top shortstop in this year’s free-agent class, and ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) expects him to receive something along the lines of a four-year, $46 million deal. However, there is legitimate concern about Ramirez’s ability to play the position on an everyday basis, not to mention his overall durability, and it doesn’t make it any better that he’ll soon be on the wrong side of 30.

After that, there’s a considerable drop-off in talent at shortstop after Ramirez, as Asdrubal Cabrera (29), Jed Lowrie (30) and Stephen Drew (31) represent the only other everyday players at the position. Plus, none of them are candidates to receive more than a two-year deal.

The crop of free-agent second basemen is even bleaker, amazingly, headlined by Emilio Bonifacio (29), Kelly Johnson (32) and Rickie Weeks (32). Basically, it’s a collection of older players likely to receive one-year contracts.

With that being said, it’s easy to see why teams will be interested in Fernandez, Olivera and Kang this offseason should they be made available.

But what should be expected from the trio of middle infielders?

Here's a breakdown of each player.

Jose Fernandez, 2B

Jose Fernandez has long been viewed as one of Cuba’s top players, but he’s still nowhere to be found, according to a report from Ben Badler of Baseball America:

From Badler:

"

Fernandez and catcher Lazaro Herrera, who are cousins and teammates on the Matanzas Crocodiles in Serie Nacional, have not played since Oct. 10. Matanzas manager Victor Mesa, who also manages the Cuban national team, had previously said he didn’t know why they were missing.

"

In his last full season in Serie Nacional (2013-14), the left-handed hitting Fernandez posted a .326/.482/.456 batting line with 65 walks and 10 strikeouts in 314 plate appearances.

ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) isn’t optimistic about the 26-year-old’s defense at second base, citing concerns about his limited range at the position, but praises his natural hitting ability:

"

Fernandez's swing is ugly -- he has a severe leak and is almost always off-balance when he makes contact -- but he has hit everywhere he has played. He rarely strikes out. It's a lot of line-drive contact without power, but he has a great feel for squaring up the baseball. I'm not certain that formula will work when facing velocity that is consistently better than what he was used to facing in Cuba or in international tournaments, however.

"

If the 26-year-old Fernandez does defect, he’ll likely become one of the top free-agent position players on the market (once he’s cleared by both OPAC and MLB), and he'll have the potential to command a large contract due to his exemption from international spending restrictions.

Given this year’s available talent, there should be plenty of teams willing to potentially overpay a bat-first player like Fernandez.

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Hector Olivera, 2B

Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported on Sept. 24 that second baseman Hector Olivera had defected from Cuba in pursuit of a career in Major League Baseball.

After missing the entire 2012-13 Serie Nacional season due to thrombosis in his left biceps, per Badler, the 29-year-old Olivera returned strong in 2013-14 to bat .316/.412/.474 with seven home runs, 38 walks and 25 strikeouts in 273 appearances for Santiago De Cuba.

More from Badler:

"

At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size.

[…]

He also won the home run derby at the 2012 all-star game and has displayed impressive power for a middle infielder. He showed his hitting ability with a batting average .315 or better in nine of his 10 seasons in Cuba and recorded more walks than strikeouts in his last eight seasons. During the 2007-08 season, Olivera stole 21 bases in 22 attempts, although he hasn’t been much of a threat on the bases since then, even before he was sidelined.

"

Olivera might not command as large of a contract as Fernandez, but he also shouldn’t be far behind his fellow Cuban defector in terms of average annual salary. That being said, there could be a wider array of teams interested in Olivera when the time comes, including the Miami Marlins, who “definitely have interest” in the 29-year-old, according to Clark Spencer of The Miami Herald.

Jung-ho Kang, SS

Add Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang to the growing list of potential international free agents, as the 27-year-old is likely to be posted this offseason by Nexen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization, reports Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.

Kang had a huge 2014 season for Nexen, batting .360/.463/.756 with a career-high 38 home runs in 107 games.

ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) expects Kang’s power to translate in the major leagues:

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…I see a swing that will generate legit plus power even once he leaves his hitter-friendly home park in the Yangcheon District of Seoul. Kang has a huge leg kick and gets his lead foot down late, which could create timing issues, but the swing is rotational, and I don't think the power surge he has had the past three years is strictly a function of the rising level of offense in the KBO. 

"

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports has some concerns about Kang’s ability to remain at shortstop, but he believes that he’ll be able to offset any defensive shortcoming with 15-20 home runs in a given season.

Law also has his doubts about Kang’s long-term future at shortstop, though he says he’d give Kang “every chance to show he can handle the position, especially given the scarcity in the middle infield in this free-agent crop.”

Once Kang is officially posted, teams will be able to bid freely on the 27-year-old to determine negotiating rights. Should Nexen accept the highest bid, which Law estimates will be somewhere in the $15 million to $20 million range, then Kang will be clear to sign, making him the first position player to make the jump from KBO to MLB.