Predicting 5 Impact MLB Free Agents Who Will Sign Quickly This Offseason

One big name came off the board Wednesday, as Victor Martinez re-signed with the Detroit Tigers for four years, $68 million, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Now, the market depends on four players—Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval—and once they begin to sign, the dominoes will fall.

But as the top players in this year’s free-agent class, they also have incentive to hold out until their contract demands are met, meaning there’s a real chance they don’t sign anytime soon. That could be especially true for Scherzer, who’s represented by mega-agent Scott Boras and widely viewed as the premier talent on the market.

At the same time, there also are free agents who won’t be affected by the high-profile signings. Teams have highly specific needs, and in a thin free-agent class, there are only so many players worth consideration. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if bidding wars were to take place this offseason for seemingly middle-of-the-pack players, resulting in some of them signing earlier than expected.

Here are five impact free agents who will sign quickly this offseason.

Andrew Miller, LHP

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Andrew Miller, 29, was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2014, posting a 2.02 ERA, 14.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.5 walks per nine while appearing in 73 games for the Red Sox and Orioles.

Now, he’s looking to get paid like one of the best relievers in baseball.

According to a report Wednesday from Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (h/t MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams), Miller is looking for nothing less than a four-year contract that has “astounding” average annual value.

Miller’s dominance against both right- and left-handed hitters makes him a hot commodity, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has even heard that some teams are considering him as a closer. Therefore, the southpaw likely is looking at a three- or four-year deal worth upwards of $35 million, possibly even more.

Though Miller’s price tag will be steep, the fact that he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, thanks to a midseason trade to Boston, means he’ll likely have a variety of potential suitors, and I’d expect all those clubs to make him favorable offers.

Miller should get the money he’s looking for this offseason, and when he does, I think he ultimately signs earlier than expected.

Russell Martin, C

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Russell Martin enters free agency fresh off a season in which he reached career-best numbers and batted .290/.402/.430 with 11 home runs. His 5.6 fWAR ranked ninth in the National League, per FanGraphs, and he posted a 9.4 fWAR over his two-year deal with the Pirates.

Martin stands to cash in this offseason, as he’s, without question, the top catcher on the open market, and the lack of realistic trade candidates only helps his stock. From a financial perspective, the only drawback is that Martin will cost the team that signs him a 2015 draft pick, but it’s a small price to pay given the alternatives.

Martin, 31, is a good bet to receive a lucrative deal, perhaps something in the ballpark of four years at around $12 million to $14 million annually, and his potential suitors are likely clubs that will want to get him involved as quickly as possible.

Billy Butler, DH

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There’s no kind way to put it: Billy Butler had a brutal 2014 season for the Kansas City Royals. The 28-year-old designated hitter posted a career-worst batting line of .271/.323/.379, walked less frequently than any other point in his career and failed to reach double-digit home runs for the first time since his 2007 rookie season.

The Royals declined Butler’s $12.5 million option to make him a free agent, and since there may not be much interest in Butler outside of Kansas City (and the American League in general), Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star speculates that the Royals might be able to bring him back on a multiyear deal worth eight figures.

I don’t see Butler being a guy who holds out for the ideal, multiyear contract; his party surely has an idea of the teams kicking the tires on the free agent as well as those that are realistic suitors. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising if he signed early in the offseason should something along the lines of two years and $8 million annually gets thrown his way.

Ervin Santana, RHP

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Ervin Santana's ERA might have jumped from 3.24 in 2013 to 3.95 in 2014, but his 3.39 FIP was his lowest since 2008, and his 3.47 xFIP was the best mark of his 10-year career, per FanGraphs. Beyond that, the 31-year-old right-hander also was less homer-prone (0.7 HR/9) and improved his K/9 from 6.9 to 8.2.

The qualifying offer tied to Santana last offseason likely played a part in his ultimately settling for a one-year, $14.1 million deal with the Braves, and it’s possible that the qualifying offer extended to him by the Royals this year could hurt his chances at landing a multiyear contract.

However, Santana is one of the better free-agent starters and could potentially dictate the market for others in that tier by signing early. He may not be willing to do another one-year deal this year, though; Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Santana is seeking a five-year contract.

If that turns out to be true, then I could see Santana jumping at the opportunity to sign a multiyear deal early in the offseason, even if that means accepting a discounted rate.

Pat Neshek, RHP

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Pat Neshek emerged as a dominant setup man in 2014, posting a 1.87 ERA and 0.787 WHIP to go along with an outstanding 7.6 K/BB ratio over 71 appearances. On top of that, Neshek also appeared in his first All-Star Game at the age of 33.

But after logging a combined 93.2 innings over the previous four seasons, it’s yet to be seen how Neshek will bounce back from the 67.1 frames he logged in 2014, his highest total since 2007 (70.1 innings).

Neshek cost the St. Louis Cardinals just $1 million in 2014, but it’s safe to say he’s in line for a considerable pay raise after his All-Star campaign. Neshek should receive a two-year contract worth around $5 million annually, and it makes sense for him to accept such a deal if one is thrown his way early in the offseason.