NFL Picks Week 11: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Everyone wants to know what the experts have to say about impending matchups. Some are looking for odds advice, while others simply want to know if their teams are expected to win. Regardless of your personal reasons, opinions from NFL gurus are fun to digest and can help with wagering decisions.

Week 11 of the NFL season has plenty of questions that need answering. Will Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett win the battle of Tom Brady's former backup quarterbacks? Will Derek Carr earn his first career victory against a shaky San Diego Chargers defense? Can Mark Sanchez outduel Aaron Rodgers?

Before we call on the experts from around the Web to answer these questions, let's take a look at the full slate of Week 11 games and their corresponding odds and predict the final score for each.

Home	Predicted Score	Away	Pick ATS
Miami Dolphins	20-17	Buffalo Bills	BUF +6
Washington Redskins	26-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB +7
Cleveland Browns	27-23	Houston Texans	CLE -3
St. Louis Rams	17-34	Denver Broncos	DEN -10
Chicago Bears	20-23	Minnesota Vikings	MIN +3
New York Giants	27-24	San Francisco 49ers	NYG +4
Carolina Panthers	18-23	Atlanta Falcons	ATL +1.5
New Orleans Saints	34-26	Cincinnati Bengals	NO -7
Kansas City Chiefs	24-23	Seattle Seahawks	KC -1
San Diego Chargers	28-26	Oakland Raiders	OAK +10.5
Green Bay Packers	31-23	Philadelphia Eagles	GB -7
Arizona Cardinals	17-26	Detroit Lions	DET +1
Indianapolis Colts	31-34	New England Patriots	NE +3
Tennessee Titans	14-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	TEN +7

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 12.

Expert Predictions

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Both starting quarterbacks in this contest spent some time learning under Brady in New England. The experience appears to have done wonders for Hoyer, who has led the Browns to a 6-3 record so far this season; however, the jury is still out on Mallett, who has thrown only four regular-season passes in his career.

According to a tweet from Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com, Brady may be paying attention to the matchup:

Hoyer has been playing very efficient football this season, throwing 10 touchdown passes against just four interceptions for a passer rating of 90.4. Mallett has a cannon for an arm and plenty of physical tools, but he's very much unproven. So, who has the advantage?

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com spoke with an NFL executive familiar with both players. Here's what he had to say: "I like Hoyer much better. Mallett has more arm talent than Hoyer, but Hoyer is a better decision-maker. [Mallett] not good with decision-making. Tries to muscle the ball because he knows he has the arm. Hoyer needs talent around him, but I would pick Hoyer."

So, the Browns get the advantage at the quarterback position, and considering the team's versatile backfield and talented secondary, there's no reason to think Cleveland won't win by any less than a three-point margin on its home turf in Week 11.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) at San Diego Chargers

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Raiders are 0-9 and coming off a big loss to the Denver Broncos. While Oakland gave up plenty of points to Peyton Manning and Co. in Week 10, that hadn't previously been the case. In fact, through the team's previous four weeks, it had lost by more than 10 points only once.

Oakland is a young team that has a knack for hanging around against opponents. Philip Rivers and the Chargers know this all too well. After all, when these teams met in Week 6, San Diego escaped with a three-point victory after Carr tossed four touchdown passes.

Interestingly enough, the Chargers secondary hasn't been able to regroup since, giving up plenty of yards in three consecutive losses. ESPN Insider Aaron Schatz noted the team's defensive decline (subscription required):

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No, a bigger issue is the defense. Over the past three weeks, San Diego has dropped from 20th to 23rd to 27th and now 31st in defensive DVOA. Jason Verrett was having a much better year than usual for a rookie corner, and losing him to a shoulder injury has been a huge loss. Veteran cornerback Brandon Flowers came back against the Dolphins, but that wasn't as much of a help as expected.

"

Carr has been playing well enough to get points on the board and keep games close. The emergence of tight end Mychal Rivera has helped things along as well. Don't expect a Raiders victory in Week 11, but don't expect a blowout win for the Chargers either.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-7)

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Here's a matchup between two teams—and two quarterbacks—coming off of rather impressive weeks.

The Eagles enter Week 11 at 7-2 after torching the Carolina Panthers 45-21 thanks to Sanchez completing 20 of his 37 passing attempts for 332 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a passer rating of 102.5. Meanwhile, the Packers trounced the Chicago Bears on the strength of a six-touchdown performance—in the first half—by Rodgers.

In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Info, Rodgers is having his best season since he was named NFL MVP:

So, here's the question: Do Sanchez and the Eagles stand a chance in Green Bay?

While Sanchez played well in Week 10, he's facing a tall order Sunday, according to Jim Reineking of NFL.com. He writes, "Rodgers has lost just one game in his last 17 regular-season home games against opponents from outside the NFC North. In those games, Rodgers has thrown for 53 touchdowns and seven interceptions."

Based on the histories of these two quarterbacks, it's rather difficult to get behind Sanchez. While the Eagles quarterback does look more comfortable in Philadelphia, Rodgers has been lighting up scoreboards in Green Bay on a consistent basis for quite some time.

Competing against Rodgers is difficult enough for Sanchez, but Philadelphia's backup signal-caller must also prepare to face Green Bay's ninth-ranked pass defense. It doesn't look good for the road team in this one.