Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will both try to bounce back from losses last week when they meet in a key AFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Bills and Dolphins each just missed covering the spread in their last games, as well, with Buffalo falling to the Kansas City Chiefs, 17-13, as a two-point home underdog and Miami dropping a 20-16 decision to the Detroit Lions as a three-point road dog.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as four-point favorites; the total was 42 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-20.8 Dolphins

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills have performed well against the Dolphins lately and also as road underdogs heading into this divisional game. They are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the past three meetings and 3-1 SU and vs. the line in their last four games as road dogs.

Buffalo is coming off a tough home loss to the Chiefs in which head coach Doug Marrone opted to go for it on fourth down at the Kansas City 15-yard line in hopes of getting a touchdown with roughly two minutes, 30 seconds remaining, rather than kick a field goal, which would have covered the spread.

Still, the Bills had their chances in that game, and they already have road wins against the Bears and Lions this year.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami may have seen its three-game winning streak end at Detroit in a close game last Sunday, but the team has still played well recently and deserves to be favored by close to a touchdown in this spot. The Dolphins blanked the San Diego Chargers, 37-0, in their previous home game as 2.5-point favorites before losing to the Lions, which followed back-to-back road wins against the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The key for Miami is the play of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown just two interceptions in the past four games combined after totalling three in the previous two. Limiting turnovers was critical for Tannehill during the winning streak, and the Dolphins will need to stay focused on that when they host Buffalo.

Smart Pick

Tannehill has been sacked 20 times this season, which is tied for ninth in the NFL right now, after he was dropped a league-high 58 times a year ago. However, he was sacked three times by the Lions and took even more hits last week to the point that he was dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries on Monday.

To make matters worse for Tannehill, he lost his starting left tackle Branden Albert, who tore his ACL and MCL in the loss.

That could be a big issue for Miami against a Bills team that likes to rush the passer. With Dolphins running back Lamar Miller also nursing a shoulder injury, there will be too much pressure on Tannehill to come through. Look for Buffalo to rebound here with yet another victory as a road dog, which would be their third of the year.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in six of Buffalo's last eight games when playing on the road against Miami
• Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing Buffalo

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.