Why Liriano, Santana Will Become Latest Victims of MLB Qualifying Offers

The deadline for MLB players to accept or reject the qualifying offer passed on Monday, and no one accepted, per ESPN's Jim Bowden. No surprise there: In the three years since the QO became a thing, not a single player has taken the bait.

Just as predictably, some players will regret their decision and ultimately settle for less money. This year's prime candidates? A pair of pitchers, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana.

Backing up a bit: Clubs can extend the qualifying offer—which is based on the average salary of baseball's 125 highest-paid players—to any impending free agent (except midseason trade pickups). If the player rejects the offer, the team that signs him surrenders its highest unprotected draft pick, and his former team gets a pick at the end of the first round as compensation.

This year, the QO was set at $15.3 million—a hefty chunk of change, but not enough to entice any of the dozen players who received the offer.

Some were no-brainers; guys like Pablo Sandoval and Max Scherzer, who are guaranteed to make out like bandits on the open market.

Others, though, may have just cost themselves dearly. Let's start with Liriano. 

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

There's a lot to like about the 31-year-old left-hander, who posted a 3.38 ERA and struck out 175 in 162.1 innings with the Pittsburgh Pirates. When he's healthy, he's a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm. That's the rub, though: When he's healthy.

Liriano missed time with a broken right arm in 2013 and was shelved for the first month of 2014 with an oblique strain. Those injuries aren't as troubling as the arm issues that plagued the former top prospect early in his career and led to Tommy John surgery in 2006. But they should give prospective suitors pause.

Liriano seriously considered accepting the Pirates' QO, as FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported, evidence that even he isn't certain what he'll get in free agency.

If he's searching for a cautionary tale, he doesn't need to look further than Santana. Last year, after posting a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings with the Kansas City Royals, the right-hander rejected a $14.1 million QO and tested the free-agent waters.

He got a cold reception. The notion of giving up a draft pick, coupled with Santana's desire for a nine-figure deal, turned off most teams, per USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz. 

"It wasn't what I expected. It was hard,'' Santana told Ortiz in Spanish. 

"I never thought it would happen this way," he added. "I thought it would be easier..."

Santana ended up signing a one-year, $14.1 million contract (essentially what he rejected from the Royals) with the Atlanta Braves.

And he produced. Yes, he posted a higher ERA (3.95) and pitched fewer innings (196) than he did with Kansas City. But he put more distance between himself and his disastrous 2012 campaign—when he allowed an MLB-leading 39 home runs with the Los Angeles Angels—as FanGraphs' Mike Petriello notes:

"

Santana may seem like the same pitcher he was a year ago, but there’s at least one thing working in his favor. Last year, he was coming off one good season and one of the worst seasons by a regular starter in the past 50 years. This year, he’s coming off of two consecutive good seasons. If the goal is to convince a team that his awful 2012 was an outlier, then that’s an easier sell this time.

"

Still, this seems a lot like the cliched definition of insanity—doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

And consider this: Liriano and Santana are part of a rich class of free-agent pitchers that includes marquee names like Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields.

After that, there's an array of less shiny but potentially intriguing arms—Jake Peavy, Jason Hammel, Ryan Vogelsong—who would slot nicely into almost any rotation and won't cost a draft pick.

It's certainly possible Liriano and Santana will get multiyear offers. But will there be enough bidders to drive their value north of $15.3 million per season? That seems less likely.

Bottom line: Every year, someone has regretted rejecting the qualifying offer. If you look around and can't figure out who it'll be this time, it just might be you.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.