MLB MVP 2014: Latest Predictions for Winners of AL and NL Races

Barring any major surprises, MLB's best hitter and pitcher will each secure his first MVP award when the results unveil on Thursday.

Baseball's brightest two superstars have the inside track on winning the hardware. Following two runner-up finishes, Mike Trout is poised to finally take what is rightfully his. While the American League contest is easy to call, many anti-pitcher pundits are hesitant to hand over the National League MVP to Clayton Kershaw.

The league released three finalists from each league, dwindling down the list of potential winners. Yet it remains clear who deserves to win on each side of the aisle. Here's a final breakdown of the major award races.

American League
National League
Player	Team	Stats (Slash Line: BA/AVG/SLG)	WAR*
Mike Trout	LAA	.287/.377/.561, 36 HR, 111 RBI, 115 R	7.8
Michael Brantley	CLE	.327/.385/.506, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 94 R	6.6
Victor Martinez	DET	.335/.409/.565, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 87 R	4.4
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 239 K, 31 BB	7.2
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	.314/.410/.542, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 89 R	6.8
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	.288/.395/.555, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 89 R	6.1

American League

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In the worst season of his career, Trout is the clear choice to take home his first of many MVP trophies.

Calling 2014 Trout's worst season is not a slight to his candidacy. The 23-year-old still generated a career-high 36 home runs and 111 RBI while leading everyone with a 7.8 fWAR, via FanGraphs. It's just a testament to how the Los Angeles Angels phenom should be earning his third straight MVP recognition.

After falling short to Miguel Cabrera in his initial two seasons, Trout would follow the path of a star outfielder to whom he's often compared, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Looking at the final three candidates, picking Trout is easy. Victor Martinez hit a tremendous .335/.409/.565, but he also spent most of his time at designated hitter, impeding his overall value.

Michael Brantley is a more formidable foe, but he falls just shy of his Angels adversary in the outfield. His 155 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is notches below Trout's 167 metric, so the power made Trout an all-around more impactful hitter despite a lower on-base percentage.

As for those pesky voters that shunned him before, Trout's spiked power production, along with the Angels' MLB-best 98 wins, will appease them this time around. Their stubbornness to only pick players on winning squads eliminates Brantley's chances of pulling off an upset, as the Cleveland Indians missed the postseason cut.

Predicted Winner: Trout

National League 

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Any opposition to Kershaw stems from a belief that no starting pitcher, no matter how dominant, deserves MVP honors. After all, the ace just received an accolade for his performance, unanimously winning the Cy Young Award on Wednesday.

The thinking is simple. A pitcher plays every fifth game while a position player makes his presence felt daily. Former manager Tommy Lasorda preached those sentiments on MLB Network Radio, per its Twitter page:

It makes sense at first glance, but that faulty logic doesn't take into account the enhanced sway a starting pitcher carries in each appearance.

Despite spending a short stint on the disabled list, Kershaw faced 749 batters during the 2014 season. Meanwhile, Andrew McCutchen and Giancarlo Stanton tallied 648 and 639 plate appearances, respectively. When Kershaw took the mound, the Los Angeles Dodgers won 23 of his 27 starts.

That value is reflected by Kerhsaw's superior WAR. Trout is the only position player with a higher WAR in FanGraphs' model, and the lefty even trumped the fellow L.A. star in overall value by Baseball-Reference's calculations.

The award is Most Valuable Player, not Most Valuable Position Player. On the heels of netting a 1.77 ERA and 239 strikeouts through 198.1 innings, no NL player of any variety generated more value than Kershaw.

Predicted Winner: Kershaw

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.