MLB Rumors: Analyzing Trade Buzz for Jordan Zimmermann, Elvis Andrus and More

Even though the calendar says that Major League Baseball's offseason has just started, things are already heating up for all 30 teams. This has become a year-round sport, drawing as much interest in trade rumors and free-agent signings in the winter as for what happens when games are played. 

Most of these rumors will turn out to be bogus, planted by teams or agents or someone involved looking to pressure someone else into overpaying in a deal. It's a nice strategy if it works, but the focus here is to analyze what all the trade talk actually means right now. 

It's one thing to say a team has an interest in moving or acquiring Player X, but then you have to figure out why such a move is being discussed. Here are the hottest rumors being talked about and their possible implications as the offseason moves on. 

Jordan Zimmermann Not Going to Chicago

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

On Tuesday, rumblings that the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs were discussing the possibility of a trade involving Jordan Zimmermann were all over Twitter. Gordon Wittenmyer of The Chicago Sun-Times reported the story:

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Multiple sources said Tuesday the Cubs are in talks with the Washington Nationals to acquire right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, a two-time All-Star who has averaged 200 innings over the past three seasons. ...

One source said the teams have enough mutual interest that names have been discussed. Another said he expected the Cubs to complete the deal – along with Cardinals free agent Justin Masterson, who blamed minor injuries for season-long struggles in 2014 after a 2013 All-Star season.

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Later, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that such a deal wasn't going to happen and that the Cubs weren't actively pursuing Zimmermann: "Officials with the Cubs denied in the strongest possible terms Tuesday night that they were pursuing a trade for Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann."

James Wagner of The Washington Post echoed Rosenthal's sentiments on Twitter:

On the surface, such a deal would seem to make sense. Even though Zimmermann is arguably Washington's best starting pitcher, and the Nationals have a deep rotation to play with. Their weakness during this run of success has been on offense; they've finished no higher than ninth in runs scored since 2012. 

The Cubs have a litany of impressive positional prospects including middle infielders like Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell. The Nationals need a middle infielder, specifically a second baseman, because Asdrubal Cabrera is a free agent and Danny Espinosa had a .634 OPS last year. 

It's no secret that the Cubs are in the market for starting pitching. While they've stocked their system with high-impact position players, there's a dearth of impact starters coming through the minors. 

However, digging deeper into a potential trade, the Nationals would be giving up that rarest of commodities—a true No. 1 starter signed to an affordable contract through 2016—in the hopes one of those young bats turns into a superstar. 

As great as those Cubs' prospects look on paper, they are still prospects. There are any number of things that can go wrong with players who have no MLB track record. 

On the other side, the Cubs would be selling a piece of their long-term future for a player under control for two years. It's going to take time for this young talent to establish itself in the big leagues, so by the time they are ready to take the next step, Zimmermann is on his way to free agency and a massive contract. 

There's no reason for the Cubs to do that when they can negotiate right now with the likes of Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. It's a nice thought to put the Nationals and Cubs in trade discussions together because a deal makes sense given the weaknesses of both teams right now. 

Unfortunately, it just doesn't make sense when you look at the logistics of a deal. 

Elvis Andrus a "Long Shot" Solution For Yankees 

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

With the shortstop position vacated following Derek Jeter's retirement—not sure if you heard about that—the New York Yankees are able to explore all possible avenues to replace the legend. 

One such road the Yankees could take is to engage the Texas Rangers in trade talks for Elvis Andrus. According to Mark Feinsand of The New York Daily News, if such a move were to take place, it would be a huge surprise:

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A source told the Daily News a trade for the Rangers’ 26-year-old shortstop is nothing but the longest of long shots, as the Yankees have no interest taking on his massive contract.

One executive believes it would take “a huge leap of faith” to deal for Andrus, who signed an eight-year, $120 million extension with the Rangers that begins this upcoming season.

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The extension that Andrus signed with Texas in April 2013, which kicks in starting next season, was one of the most interesting deals in recent memory. He's not a traditional $100-million player since so much of his value is on defense. 

That's not saying it was a bad extension, because the value of an elite defensive shortstop is high. However, Andrus has never done much with the bat. Most teams don't want to commit big dollars to a player whose primary skill is defense. 

According to FanGraphs' metrics, Andrus has been a negative offensive player in four of his six seasons. In 2012, his offensive value was 0.2. 

The Yankees have enough things to worry about with their lineup heading into 2015. Is Mark Teixeira ever going to hit for average and power again? Will Brian McCann get his on-base percentage over .300? Are Martin Prado and Chris Young going to survive with a full season in the AL East?

They have all those questions, and that's not even mentioning the elephant in the room: Alex Rodriguez. Andrus' defense at shortstop will be a huge benefit to a New York team that watched Jeter get far more credit than he ever deserved. 

It's hard to put a player who offers little potential with the bat in the lineup for the next eight years. If Andrus isn't hitting now at the age of 26, imagine how low things will fall once he gets older and some of those skills start to deteriorate. 

There may not be a lot of top-shelf shortstops available this offseason, especially since Hanley Ramirez shouldn't be playing shortstop, so the Yankees would be better off finding a short-term solution for the position. 

Jeremy Hellickson Trade Imminent?

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Not all of the rumors making their way around the Internet are much ado about nothing. One that appears to have real traction is that Tampa Bay might move right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, which Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports could happen sometime this week:

Adding to Sherman's report, Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com noted that the Arizona Diamondbacks are a team interested in Hellickson:

Using Arizona as the landing spot for Hellickson (just for the purpose of evaluating a deal), it's not a good move for the Diamondbacks. Even though the right-hander is not likely to cost much in prospects coming off an injury-plagued 2014 season, the things that make him successful don't translate well to Chase Field. 

Hellickson is a pitcher who pitches more to contact, never striking out more than 6.98 hitters per nine innings in a full season, and he also gives up fly balls at a 41.4 percent clip, per FanGraphs. 

Hitters make contact against Hellickson, and when they do it's often in the air. Arizona is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, allowing 1.194 homers per game last season, per ESPN.com. It's easy to see how that could become a problem. 

There are situations where Hellickson would be a nice fit. He's a pitcher who will be most effective with a good defense behind him. Just as an example, San Francisco, Atlanta and St. Louis would take advantage of his skills far better than a team like Arizona. 

Whether those are the kinds of teams engaging the Rays in discussions for Hellickson is another story. He's a solid bounce-back candidate for 2015 with the right team. It appears we will find out soon what his situation will be. 

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