NFL Predictions Week 11: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

The latter stages of the 2014 NFL regular season are quickly approaching, which means most teams have shown their true colors by this point.

Over the next several weeks, there will still be surprising results and poor performances from teams that looked to be excellent, but there is no question that every team has a body of work that is big enough to judge them on to some degree.

The one issue related to that for bettors is the fact that oddsmakers have a better feel for the landscape of the league, which leads to extremely difficult betting lines.

With that said, there are still plenty of enticing games worth wagering on from the Week 11 slate. Here is a rundown of picks for every game on the schedule, as well as some extra analysis for the key selections.

*Point spreads courtesy of Odds Shark.

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Thursday, Nov. 13	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	MIA (-6)	BUF	BUF
Sunday, Nov. 16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	WAS (-7)	WAS	TB
Sunday, Nov. 16	Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	CLE (-3)	CLE	CLE
Sunday, Nov. 16	Denver Broncos	St. Louis Rams	DEN (-10)	DEN	DEN
Sunday, Nov. 16	Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears	CHI (-3.5)	CHI	CHI
Sunday, Nov. 16	San Francisco 49ers	New York Giants	SF (-4.5)	SF	SF
Sunday, Nov. 16	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-1.5)	CAR	CAR
Sunday, Nov. 16	Cincinnati Bengals	New Orleans Saints	NO (-8)	NO	NO
Sunday, Nov. 16	Seattle Seahawks	Kansas City Chiefs	Even	SEA	SEA
Sunday, Nov. 16	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD (-10.5)	SD	OAK
Sunday, Nov. 16	Philadelphia Eagles	Green Bay Packers	GB (-6)	GB	PHI
Sunday, Nov. 16	Detroit Lions	Arizona Cardinals	DET (-2)	DET	DET
Sunday, Nov. 16	New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3)	IND	IND
Monday, Nov. 17	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans	PIT (-6)	PIT	TEN

Detroit Lions (+2) at Arizona Cardinals

In a clash that could very well decide the NFC, the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals will host the 7-2 Detroit Lions. Detroit certainly seems to have the advantage offensively, but this game is likely to be decided on the defensive side of the ball.

The Lions are first in both total defense and points allowed per game this season. They also happen to be No. 2 against the run, which is bad news for Cards running back Andre Ellington. Arizona is No. 3 against the run in its own right, although Detroit is perfectly capable of leaning heavily on the passing game.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford hasn't had to win many games on his own, although he certainly can now that he has his full allotment of weapons. All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson is back in the fold after missing a few games with an ankle injury, and he paid immediate dividends in Week 10, according to Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press:

Even if Megatron doesn't have a huge game going up against excellent cornerback Patrick Peterson, Stafford should be able to do some damage with Golden Tate, who is closing in on a 1,000-yard receiving season in his own right.

Perhaps the biggest thing working against Arizona, though, is its quarterback quandary. After tearing his ACL against the St. Louis Rams last week, starting signal-caller Carson Palmer is out for the season, per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

That means backup Drew Stanton will have to step in. The Cardinals are officially 2-1 under Stanton this year, and he led them to a come-from-behind victory last week as well. He has an extremely difficult schedule ahead of him in terms of opposing defenses, though, according to ESPN's Ed Werder, and it starts with the Lions:

Winning in Arizona is an extremely difficult task as the Cards have yet to lose there this season. The Lions are perhaps the best-rounded team in football right now, however, and they should be able to take advantage of the Cardinals' quarterback problems.

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Neither the Carolina Panthers nor the Atlanta Falcons are in the midst of particularly good seasons, but they still have plenty to play for. The New Orleans Saints are atop the NFC South with a pedestrian record of 4-5, which means the winner of this game still has a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

The Panthers are 3-6-1, while the Falcons are nipping at their heels at 3-6. Carolina is currently mired in a four-game losing streak, which includes an embarrassing blowout at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Atlanta enters this contest coming off a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they hadn't won in almost two months prior to that, according to ESPN's Field Yates:

Last week also marked the Falcons' first win away from the Georgia Dome this season. They simply aren't a very good road team, which should bode well for Carolina.

If the Panthers are going to win this game, though, they will need much better play from quarterback Cam Newton. The loss to the Eagles can't be pinned solely on him since the offensive line couldn't protect him, but Newton knows that his level of play must be raised significantly moving forward, per Bryan Strickland of Panthers.com.

"

We can't expect to win football games starting out like that. We put a lot of stress on our defense with excellent field position for them with back-to-back turnovers. I should have done a better job by checking the ball down or throwing the ball away. ... 

I pride myself on protecting the football, but that's just not happening right now. I have to protect the football better. I can't put the ball up for grabs. I have to understand the difference between giving our guys an opportunity and risking the football.

"

Perhaps a Falcons defense that allows a league-worst 280 passing yards per game is exactly what the doctor ordered for Newton. In addition to that, Atlanta ranks 31st in the NFL with just 11 sacks, so Newton shouldn't be under a ton of duress.

This almost feels like an elimination game as it relates to postseason contention, and Carolina will find a way to stay alive on its home field.

Denver Broncos (-10) at St. Louis Rams

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

There may be no more difficult team in the NFL to figure out than the St. Louis Rams. Although they have upset both the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers in two of the past four weeks, the other two games over that time frame were blowout losses. With the Denver Broncos coming to town, the latter scenario seems likeliest.

Denver took out the frustrations of its loss to the New England Patriots by crushing the Oakland Raiders 41-17 last week. Quarterback Peyton Manning had another spectacular outing, and the numbers suggest that should continue in Week 11. Not only is Manning comfortable playing in a dome after so many years with the Indianapolis Colts, but the Rams defense also allows the fourth-highest quarterback rating in the league.

The Rams actually had a lead against the Cardinals last week and had momentum on their side when Palmer got injured, but they fell apart late in the game. According to Jim Thomas of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that has been commonplace for the Rams as of late:

That isn't a recipe for success against a Broncos team that can score at any time in myriad ways. While laying 10 points may seem like a lot for a home team, St. Louis has just one victory at home this season anyway.

The Broncos have some tougher games coming up on their schedule, so they will take full advantage of this one by cruising to an easy win.

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