Aging Hitters Will Benefit Greatly from Offensive Slowdown

Major League Baseball is going the way of Generations X and Y, rappers and celebutants. 

Basically, today’s 30s are yesteryear’s 20s.

In this relatively new baseball market, hitters on the normally wrong side of 30 years old are benefitting from baseball’s depressed offensive output. As PED testing has become stricter, Hulked-up mashers are things of the distant past, and teams have started locking up their young position players to long-term extensions, aging hitters suddenly have a plush market in the winter of 2015.

None of them are candidates for six- or seven-year contracts, but the offensive competence of guys like Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Hanley Ramirez and even Russell Martin now has spiked value. The overall drop in offensive production along with a lack of young, elite position players on the market because of early contract extensions means those post-30 hitters will have a market that likely would not have existed at their current age five years ago.

Martinez is at the top of the crop, but he is also the oldest of the productive hitters, turning 36 next month. As the primary designated hitter for the Detroit Tigers, Martinez put together a career season with a .335/.409/.565 line, .974 OPS, 32 home runs, 103 RBI’s, a 168 OPS-plus and 5.3/4.4 WAR via Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, respectively.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Ten years ago, Martinez’s age and production spike would lead to rumors about PED use, and that he doesn’t have a position—he could play first base if needed—would shrink his financial opportunities. But in this market, Martinez is the best hitter, and his age and being locked into the DH role won’t affect him too badly.

In fact, ESPN.com Baseball Insider and former MLB general manager Jim Bowden predicts (subscription required) an average annual value of $17 million for Martinez, and CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman sees him getting four years and somewhere between $70-80 million.

Helping Martinez’s cause is that the Tigers are focused on him as their No. 1 target this offseason, according to The Associated Press (h/t George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press). 

As for Cruz, his market was severely dented by the Biogenesis suspension last year, but his 40 home runs and .859 OPS have him seeking a multiyear deal despite him, like Martinez, being limited to a DH role.

Cruz will be 35 on July 1, and a three-year deal at around $40 million seems likely for one of the true power hitters in the American League.

As for Ramirez, who still has time on his side at 31 when next season starts, he is trying to quell his position issues. He was steadfast on being a shortstop, but as he’s witnessed the market for him at that position dissipate, he recently moved back from that stance, and if he’s sincere, it will increase his suitors.

"

longtime SS star hanley ramirez is telling teams he'd play 3B if needed, or maybe even elsewhere. http://t.co/wcIuEGXnCK

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 7, 2014"

Ramirez had a dip in production from 2013, but he was still steady enough to prove he is a middle-of-the-lineup bat. Depending on how many teams find him and his willingness to move around the diamond attractive, Ramirez could fetch up to $100 million, according to Heyman. That kind of loot for a 30-something player without a definite position, an injury history and a downswing in production shows exactly how much competent hitters are valued this offseason.

Russell Martin, Torii Hunter and Chase Headley are other free-agent hitters on the downside of 30, and all three expect to have several teams vying for their services.

Michael Cuddyer, who will be 36 on Opening Day, was a free agent for about four seconds before he signed a two-year, $21 million deal with the New York Mets despite him having huge splits when playing at home in Coors Field last season. Still, any semblance of a potent bat is garnering attention.

It’s not just free agency where teams are seeking offense from older players with injury histories. While teams are certainly valuing draft picks more and more these days, they also aren’t totally opposed to giving up prospects for the right player. We’ve seen this with pitchers in the past, notably James Shields two years ago, and we may see it again this winter with pitchers like Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister and possibly even David Price.

However, hitters are going to draw similar attention because of what the free-agent market possesses, or does not possess, which is top-flight youth.

Now that the Colorado Rockies are willing to deal away shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, according to Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post, that team will see action on the trade market. Despite Tulowitzki’s injury history and the fact that he is already 30 and is still owed at least $118 over the next six years, there will be a decent sized market for him because he produces at an elite level and plays an elite position well. Teams will be willing to part with prospects to get Tulowitzki because, when healthy, he is better than every other free-agent hitter on the market. 

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Oakland’s Josh Donaldson, 29 in December, most likely will not be traded, but the fact that his name even created a stir tells us any whiff of available offense is attracting hounds.

Again, this shows that the league is in an offensive depression and even elder batsmen are watching their values rise.

This offseason will be unlike any other when it comes to aging position players with questionable histories getting paid, but as the game has shifted from offense-happy to pitcher-dominant, so have winter priorities.

We are about to see that play out with the 30-something hitters on the open market.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.