NFL Predictions Week 11: Upset Picks and Projections

From Thursday through Sunday night, this week's slate of NFL games might be one of the toughest this season. Sorry Tennessee Titans fans, but it doesn't seem likely that the Pittsburgh Steelers will lay two consecutive eggs.

Two straight weeks of slim pickings due to bye weeks finally end in Week 11. However, bettors will find that many of the matchups are so even that choosing a winner is no easy task.

Like any week, there is upset potential from myriad close contests. Making the correct call can lead to lining those pockets for another week.

Before Week 11 officially gets underway, here's a look at the full predictions and upset specials.

Matchup	Spread	Pick (ATS)
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -4	MIA
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -4.5	MIN
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE
Seattle at Kansas City	SEA -1	SEA
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	ATL
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5	NO
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -6	TB
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -8	DEN
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -3	SF
Oakland at San Diego	SD -11	SD
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET
New England at Indianapolis	IND -2	NE
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -4	PIT

Odds via Odds Shark as of 11 a.m. ET, Nov. 12.

Upset Picks

Detroit Lions (+3) at Arizona Cardinals

Two top-five defenses. Two division leaders. Two outstanding passing attacks—minus Carson Palmer.

That one caveat hasn't hindered the Arizona Cardinals thus far this season, but it will catch up to them against the Detroit Lions. With Palmer now out for the season, it will be up to Drew Stanton to do the heavy lifting under center.

Cards coach Bruce Arians was still bullish about his team's chances with Stanton, per the NFL's official Twitter account:

In a division like the NFC West, just getting to the playoffs is no guarantee.

Stanton has filled in admirably for the Cardinals this season in three starts, going 2-1 with two touchdowns and no picks. He also stepped up against the St. Louis Rams with a touchdown to lead the team to a win.

But this isn't just about Stanton, it's also about the Lions and what they bring to the table. The defense is stout, and the offense is firing on all cylinders with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Expect a close game in the desert but a huge road win for the NFC North leaders.

Prediction: Lions 20, Cardinals 17

New England Patriots (+2) at Indianapolis Colts

Here's some breaking news for everyone: The New England Patriots aren't dead, and Tom Brady still lives up to the billing of Tommy Terrific.

A hiccup in the division and one blowout loss seemingly reshaped what everyone thought about the Patriots early in the season. Let's just say the five-game winning streak has healed all of those wounds.

Just how great has Brady been during his career in New England? The Patriots' official Twitter account notes an astounding statistic about the veteran quarterback:

Meanwhile, Andrew Luck has slowly put his name into serious MVP conversations by helping turn the Indianapolis Colts' season around. After an 0-2 start, the team is now 6-3 but still in search of a signature win.

Luck won't get that win on Sunday night against a team that has won by an average of 18.6 points over the last five games. Brady and Rob Gronkowski will lead the charge because, after all, the Patriots can't afford another prime-time debacle.

Prediction: Patriots 37, Colts 31

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Living in Raleigh, North Carolina, this is a painful one to call. But after watching Mark Sanchez dissect the Carolina Panthers defense, it seems likely Matt Ryan will do the same.

Though it's not all the defense's fault, it has to take some of the blame for allowing 31 points against the Philadelphia Eagles. The other two touchdowns, of course, were courtesy of an arm punt from Cam Newton and an actual one that Darren Sproles returned for a score.

Neither of these two teams can seem to get out of their own way, but the Falcons might just have enough to hold on late this time. After all, Matty Ice was able to penetrate the Detroit Lions defense. He'll just have to do that for two halves against the suddenly porous Panthers D.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 23

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