NFL Week 11 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Weeks of outrageous spreads continue in Week 11, mostly thanks to the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.

Of course, those two are the culprits for wildly different reasons.

Denver and Oakland actually met last week in a knee-slapper in which bettors better have made tons of money on an over/under in the neighborhood of 50 and a spread around 11.5. Peyton Manning and the Broncos won 41-17.

Both are back at it again in Week 11, along with plenty of other juicy lines to ride. They are as follows.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -6	MIA	Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league's best pass defenses.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -3.5	MIN	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	EVEN	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5	NO	Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10	DEN	See analysis below.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4.5	SF	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10.5	OAK	See analysis below.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB	Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3	NE	A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -6	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 11.

Analyzing Biggest Spreads of Week 11

Denver (-10) at St. Louis

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

First up is Manning's team. 

After a loss to New England in Week 9 that potentially threw bettors for a loop, the Broncos got back to their usual selves with the aforementioned dissection of Oakland. Manning threw for 340 yards and five scores to bring his totals to a gaudy 2,912 and 29, respectively.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Rams fell off the face of a cliff to signal what may be the end of the team's competitive streak. Jeff Fisher's team has three wins, one of which was an upset of Seattle, the other an upset of San Francisco.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch provides a note that suggests it was a matter of time before a lengthy losing streak began for the Rams:

Part of the problem for the Rams is that they must rely on quarterback Austin Davis. As great as he has been at times, he has also thrown just three touchdowns to five interceptions over the course of his last three games.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Another issue is the team's defense, which is especially wobbly against the run and ranks 25th.

Denver has no such issue. The Broncos rank No. 1 overall against the rush by allowing just 67.0 yards per game on the ground. This effectively kills the Rams' offensive strength, not that the team would have been able to ride the ground game much anyway once Manning and the Broncos began to pull away.

As one can tell from how the season has played out so far, St. Louis plays divisional opponents tough, but that is about it.

This one has all the makings of a colossal blowout as Manning continues to hit on all cylinders. The Rams are at the bottom at the wrong time, although bettors should not complain.

Prediction: Broncos 35, Rams 20

Oakland at San Diego (-10.5)

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Now for those downtrodden Raiders. 

Rookie quarterback Derek Carr (1,903 yards and 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions) and his team are 0-9 on the year, but the team cannot be expected to get blown away every time out, right?

Right. Think back to Week 6, when the San Diego Chargers hardly escaped Oakland with a 31-28 win. There, Carr tossed a jaw-dropping four scores and Darren McFadden summoned his past prime to gain 80 yards on 14 carries.

It makes sense, then, that a number of Chargers are not taking their rivals lightly, as captured by the team's Twitter account:

The Raiders do little right and have yet to win, but a 10.5-point spread seems a tad much. Keep in mind that these Chargers, despite coming off a bye in Week 10, are reeling on the ropes after three straight losses.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Granted, those losses came against contenders in Kansas City, Denver and Miami, but the point stands that the Chargers have been mediocre at best lately, especially considering that matchup with the Dolphins was a 37-0 shellacking.

After looking like an underrated MVP contender, Philip Rivers has thrown five touchdowns to six interceptions in his last four games, and the defense has been unable to stop much of anything.

Now, this should change against the Raiders. The more talented team that has also had an extra week of prep against a familiar opponent should win out. But more than 10 points seems entirely too much given all of the circumstances around this one.

Prediction: Chargers 35, Raiders 30

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.