Impact Free Agents Who Won't Sign Where You Expect Them To

Last year around this time, it wasn't a question of whether Robinson Cano was going to re-sign with the New York Yankees; it was a question of how much money he'd get the free-spending club to commit.

Nobody saw the Seattle Mariners or the 10-year, $240 million deal they gave him coming.

On a yearly basis, baseball fans and pundits alike believe they know where the top free-agent talent is heading. But despite our well-thought-out predictions, the Hot Stove League finds a way to burn us.

This winter will prove to be no different, as a handful of impact free agents will wind up in places nobody thought they would.

Jon Lester, SP (Age: 31)

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Team he was thought to be heading to: Chicago Cubs

Team he winds up with: Boston Red Sox

Between Chicago's desire to sign a front-of-the-rotation arm and Jon Lester's connection to Cubs President Theo Epstein from their days in Boston, no free-agent prediction seemed as obvious heading into the Hot Stove League as Jon Lester taking his talents to Wrigley Field.

Except we forgot about one thing: The Red Sox also need a front-of-the-rotation arm and have cash to spend.

While the two sides weren't able to work out an extension before last year's trade deadline, the southpaw never closed the door on a potential return, as he told the Boston Herald's John Tomase back in August, (h/t Mass Live's Jason Mastrodonato):

"

My time there, the memories and all that stuff don’t get erased based on this whole ordeal. I’m glad with where I’m at, and I understood where Ben (Cherington) was at. At the end of the season, it’s not going to change my mind about going back there if they are aggressive and competitive and do the things they say they’re going to do. Boston is definitely a place I would go.

"

Boston certainly looks as if it's going to be aggressive this winter, with ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes reporting that the club is going "all in" in its pursuit of free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Now, it appears the club is willing to offer a lengthy deal to bring back Lester, something rampant speculation indicated they weren't willing to do.

Lester has always maintained that it's not all about the money for him and that he'd sign where he and his family were most comfortable. You don't get more comfortable than returning to the place they've called home for all but a few months of his nine-year MLB career. 

Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B (Age: 31)

Team he was thought to be heading to: Los Angeles Dodgers

Team he winds up with: Seattle Mariners

Before the Dodgers lured Andrew Friedman away from Tampa Bay, it was a foregone conclusion that Hanley Ramirez would be staying in Los Angeles. But now, with the cost-conscious Friedman running the show, that's simply no longer the case, as ESPNLosAngeles.com's Mark Saxon reports:

Saxon writes, "There has been no internal dialogue about retaining Ramirez on a multiyear deal. The Dodgers will take the compensatory draft pick they get for losing Ramirez and move on."

Ramirez, the most explosive hitter available, comes with baggage. He's played in more than 130 games only once since 2010 and will be viewed as a questionable defender no matter where a team puts him on the field.

But according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, there's one team that doesn't seem concerned with any of that:

While putting Ramirez at shortstop is a risk, the Mariners could split his time between, say, left field and the designated hitter spot. According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, Ramirez has let it be known that he's willing to play "wherever there's a need."

After signing Cano to a record-breaking deal last winter, there's no doubt that Seattle will spend money to sign the right player.

Adding Ramirez to the middle of the order, along with Cano and third baseman Corey Seager, would give the club the impact bat it needs and its best heart of the order since 2001, when Edgar Martinez, John Olerud and Bret Boone locked down the third, fourth and fifth spots in the lineup.

James Shields, SP (Age: 33)

Pool/Getty Images

Team he was thought to be heading to: Boston Red Sox or Chicago Cubs

Team he winds up with: Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels intimated to ESPNDallas.com's Calvin Watkins that the team preferred to add via trade rather than free agency this winter, and that makes sense.

Like the Cubs, the Rangers need starting pitching and have a plethora of young, talented middle infielders to deal in exchange for it. Shields, who spent seven years pitching for Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay, seems like an obvious choice to join his former skipper in Chicago.

Unlike the Cubs, the Rangers already have an ace atop the rotation in Yu Darvish. What they need is quality depth, starting with a reliable, innings-eating No. 2 starter who can keep the team in games and take pressure off the bullpen.

There may not be a pitcher who fits that description any better than James Shields.

The veteran right-hander is coming off his ninth consecutive season with at least 31 starts, 11 wins and 200 innings pitched. While the club has not been officially linked to the veteran starter, he's just about a perfect fit in Texas.

Not only would signing Shields immediately solve the team's front-of-the-rotation arm issue, but it would also free up Daniels to flip someone such as Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar or Luis Sardinas for additional rotation reinforcements.

Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. All ages listed are as of Opening Day 2015.

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