Prospect Report: Chris Tillman

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If you’re a Mariners fan, or a close friend of one, don’t be stunned to see them calling out of work today because of some stomach discomfort.  Maybe they’re nauseous, have some heartburn or can’t seem to quell Montezuma’s revenge.  It’ll only be a day away from the job, so don’t worry about a prolonged absence.

Since Feb. 8, 2008, the day that the Mariners traded Adam Jones, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman to the Baltimore Orioles for Erik Bedard, these have been the common symptoms shown by fans and those in the organization, most notably former GM Bill Bavasi. 

The point is that while the pain my last a lifetime, these symptoms should be more controllable as time goes on.  Or maybe not.  

I’m not a doctor, but I’m confident that these signs will recur on Wednesday, July 29, 2009, as the Baltimore Orioles promote Chris Tillman to the major leagues to make his first start of his career against the Kansas City Royals.

Warning: for those Mariners diehards out there, this may be hard to swallow

The Baltimore Orioles are going nowhere this season.  And with the struggles of Rich Hill, 7.80 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP, and Jason Berken, 6.55 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, the Orioles are set to see what the future has in store for them. 

Chris Tillman has been scratched from his Wednesday Triple-A start and will now get a taste of Zach Greinke and the Kansas City Royals instead.

Ranked the Orioles 2nd best prospect by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus behind the super-hero Matt Wieters, Tillman is a 6′5″, 195 lb, 21-year-old who has all the makings of a big time ace in the major leagues.  

From rookie ball at age-18 to this year, his first year at Triple-A, Tillman has compiled 398.2 IP, allowed 372 hits and struck out 437 batters.  He has a 3.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  They don’t sound like star prospect numbers, but realize Tillman is still only 21, has shown the massive strikeout potential already and most importantly improved as he’s matured.

For instance, from last season in Double-A to this year in Triple-A, Tillman has lowered his ERA nearly a half a point from 3.18 to 2.70.  Of course the strikeouts are a given: a 10.2 K/9 last year compared to 9.2 K/9 in a much more mature Triple-A.  The only flaw on Tillman’s short resume has been his high walk totals, a 3.9 per nine rate in his few seasons in the minors. 

This season, Tillman has rectified his control problems to a tune of 2.4 BB/9 and that’s a large reason for his promotion.  Stuff is one thing with young pitchers, but being able to harness it is another.  Tillman seems to have caught on.

From July 3 to July 17, a span of three starts, Tillman really showed he was ready for the big leagues.  He threw 21.1 innings, gave up 1 ER and allowed 17 hits.  He also struck out 20 batters and walked one. 

This was a key stretch for him in opening the eyes of the Orioles brass.  He lasted 3.2 innings and gave up 4 ER in his July 23 start, but we’ll write that off for now.

This year he has thrown 96.2 innings, allowing 85 hits and fanning 99.  His 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP have been numbers that have catapulted him into impact fantasy discussion.  He’s also done it with a .315 BABIP, which shows that with a bit more luck he could’ve had an even lower ERA. 

His strand-rate is also a low 73.2 percent this year, revealing he wasn’t overly lucky with leaving runners on base either.  Finally, his FIP of 2.76 compared to his 2.70 ERA indicate he’s justifiably dominated Triple-A batters this season.

Couple these statistics with some impressive scouting reports and you have a pitcher that keeper leaguers have to be swooning over.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein had this to say about Tillman’s repertoire: “Tillman’s long, skinny frame is absolutely loaded with potential, which is somewhat terrifying as his right-now stuff is very good. His fastball sits at 92-94 mph while featuring a heavy boring action, and his power curveball is a true swing-and-miss offering that he’s comfortable using as an out pitch.” 

And MLB.com said that Tillman “has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation type. At worst, he should become a workhorse in the middle of a big-league rotation soon.”  These are some very glowing projections, indeed.

Obviously Tillman has all the makings of a top of the rotation fantasy mainstay in the coming years.  Of course growing pains should be expected, as is the case with any young pitcher. 

Keeper leaguers should grab him as soon as possible, but yearly leaguers should take a more cautious approach with their expectations.  I’d grab him, but don’t expect him to fulfill his promise immediately.

The Orioles may also limit his innings, so it will take time for Tillman to truly provide a fantasy impact.  I think he’s a good gamble for the rest of the year, but his control issues have the potential to haunt him in the major leagues. 

He needs to build off this season’s lower walk totals for success to be more immediate in the major leagues.  We all know there are plenty of guys who throw hard and have great stuff, but get hurt because they fail to locate their pitches.

What do you guys think?  Will you take a chance on Chris Tillman this season?  Or let another owner take the risk with a young pitcher?