Odds of Max Scherzer Signing Blockbuster Deal with Each Top Possible Suitor

It takes a ton of confidence to do what Max Scherzer did back in the spring.

The right-hander passed on a monster contract extension offered by the Detroit Tigers reportedly worth $144 million over six seasons, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

After reeling off an 18-5 record and posting a 3.15 ERA during the 2014 season, Scherzer now has the chance to find out if his big gamble is going to pay off.

What follows is a rundown of the odds of Scherzer signing a blockbuster deal with each of the top possible suitors. There were three questions taken into consideration during the process of ranking the prospective bidders. 

First, does the particular team have a track record of dishing out lucrative contracts to free agents during recent offseasons? Second, how well would Scherzer fit into the team's plans on the diamond both in 2015 and beyond? And most crucially, does the team have the financial flexibility to add Scherzer to its payroll? 

As the starter looks to win his $144 million bet, the good news is that there's an upstart club ready to jump into the market. The bad news is that a couple of baseball's biggest spenders could end up sitting this bidding war out.

Detroit Tigers

Associated Press

Max Scherzer tips his cap to the crowd at Comerica Park after a start against the Kansas City Royals on September 10.

It appears Max Scherzer is done in Motown.

In the words of Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press, the starter is "probably gone" after spending the past five seasons pitching for the American League Central club. That's a reasonable assessment after Scherzer spurned the club's lucrative offer back in March.

With David Price now in the mix, keeping Scherzer around just isn't as critical as it was before the left-hander arrived in July.

Odds of Re-Signing Scherzer: 19-1

Boston Red Sox

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

One of the top priorities for general manager Ben Cherington and the rest of the Boston Red Sox brain trust will be to find an ace.

That need for a front-line arm has led "some folks" to speculate that the Red Sox could bid on Scherzer, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports.

Scherzer ending up at Fenway Park in 2015 appears highly unlikely. As Davidoff points out, if Boston wants to bring in a big-name starter, why not pick former Red Sox ace Jon Lester instead?

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 9-1 

Texas Rangers

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Rolling out a one-two punch of Yu Darvish and Scherzer is one way for the Texas Rangers to immediately catapult back into contention in the AL West. Of course, it's not particularly likely that such a scenario will play out before Opening Day 2015.

The club is already on the hook for major financial commitments to Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, among others. Then again, as the trade for Fielder and the signing of Choo demonstrated last winter, the team certainly isn't afraid of making big offseason moves. Inking Scherzer to a megadeal would certainly fit that description.

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 9-1 

Los Angeles Dodgers

With Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke already on the staff, adding another high-priced ace to the payroll definitely isn't at the top of Los Angeles Dodgers' offseason to-do list.

The shrewd move for Andrew Friedman, the club's new president of baseball operations, would be to focus on revamping the Dodgers' dilapidated bullpen. Still, it sure would be fun to watch a rotation that consisted of Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 6-1

New York Yankees

With a track record of handing out exorbitant contracts to the biggest names on the free-agent market, the New York Yankees would appear to be an ideal landing spot for Scherzer.

The problem for the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner is that the Yankees aren't looking to break out the checkbook this winter, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports: "At least for the moment, sources connected to the team suggest they have 'zero' plans to pursue either of the top two starting pitchers on the free-agent market—Max Scherzer and Jon Lester—and will instead concentrate on a mid-rotation guy."

It's possible that the key phrase from that sentence will prove to be "at least for the moment." That's what Scherzer will be hoping for. The longer it takes for the starter to find a new employer, the more probable it becomes that the Yankees will enter the bidding.

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 5-1

St. Louis Cardinals

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

For Scherzer, signing with the St. Louis Cardinals would offer the two-time All-Star the chance to go home. The 30-year-old is from Chesterfield, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis.

As one AL executive told Bleacher Report's Scott Miller, it's possible that geography will factor into Scherzer's decision: "He's a Missouri guy. The Cardinals wouldn't surprise me on him."

Dishing out a mint to a prominent free agent doesn't exactly fit the organizational philosophy of the Cardinals. However, a rotation headlined by Scherzer and Adam Wainwright would be dominant.

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 4-1

Chicago Cubs

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The future is looking extremely bright at Wrigley Field.

The Chicago Cubs have brought in Joe Maddon to be the team's new skipper, and now the National League Central club needs to find a star pitcher to plug in to the top spot in the rotation. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post cites an "official from another team" who thinks the Cubs will sign both Scherzer and Jon Lester.

It's extremely difficult to envision a situation in which both aces end up in Chicago, but either Scherzer or Lester would be a strong fit for the Cubs. One factor that Scherzer has in his favor is that he's worked 350 fewer innings than Lester during the course of his career.

Odds of Signing Scherzer: 3-1

Note: All stats and videos courtesy of MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.