2015 MLB International Free Agency: Contract Predictions for Top Players
Last season saw a pair of superstar-caliber players make their way to the majors via the international market, with slugger Jose Abreu joining the Chicago White Sox and right-hander Masahiro Tanaka landing atop the New York Yankees rotation.
This year's market is again led by a power-hitting Cuban outfielder and a Japanese right-hander in the form of Yasmany Tomas and Kenta Maeda.
Those are not the only guys expected to make their way to the majors and make an impact in 2015, though, with Korean left-handers Hyeon-jong Yang and Kwang-hyun Kim and Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera also expected to sign big league deals.
So here is a look at seven of the top candidates on the international market and a prediction of the contract they eventually wind up signing.
SS Jung-ho Kang
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Player Overview
Jung-ho Kang has put up fantastic offensive numbers throughout his time in the Korean Baseball Organization, with his best season by far coming this past year. The 27-year-old hit .354/.457/.733 with 36 doubles, 39 home runs and 115 RBI in 497 plate appearances, ranking second in the league in homers and total bases (304) and first in OPS (1.189).
However, there are questions about how well his game will translate to the MLB level given the lower level of competition he was facing with the Nexen Heroes.
"He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop. That still has value," Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors wrote of Kang.
Still, a middle infielder in the prime of his career with some pop will be attractive to teams, even if his ceiling is as a utility infielder.
Predicted Contract: Two years, $5 million (plus $7.5 million posting fee)
Kang is hard to peg at this point, and he may have to settle for a two-year deal given the uncertainty of how his game will translate. There will be enough teams kicking the tires that his posting fee should be decent, though.
LHP Kwang-hyun Kim
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Player Overview
Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim was officially posted by the SK Wyverns on Nov. 4, according to a tweet from Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.
The 26-year-old was 13-9 with a 3.33 ERA over 27 starts, ranking second in ERA among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work.
The 6'2" and 193-pound southpaw has some deception in his delivery, with a high leg kick, and he pitches off a fastball in the low 90s. However, none of his three secondary pitches profile as anything but average, and he may wind up serving as a swingman or reliever as opposed to a starter.
Still, as a left-hander with a good feel for pitching and plus command, there should be more than a few teams interested.
Predicted Contract: Two years, $8 million (plus $10 million posting fee)
The two-year, $8.14 million contract the Baltimore Orioles gave to Tsuyoshi Wada prior to the 2012 season could be a decent comparison here, though the questions about whether Kim can start and the fact that he comes with a posting fee could make for a lower average annual value.
2B Andy Ibanez
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Player Overview
The youngest player on the Team Cuba roster at the last World Baseball Classic, second baseman Andy Ibanez has been on the scouting radar for some time now.
The 21-year-old hit .267/.377/.435 with more walks (33) than strikeouts (28) over 280 plate appearances last season. He also won a Gold Glove during his rookie year in 2011-12, so he should have no problem making the transition defensively.
"Ibanez doesn’t have any premium tools or star upside, but his value lies in being steady in all phases while playing in the middle of the diamond," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote (subscription required).
He is expected to open his pro career at either the High-A or Double-A level, but he could move quickly and make a solid contribution right around the same age as most top prospects.
Predicted Contract: $3 million signing bonus
Having played just three years in Cuba, Ibanez is subject to the international bonus pool restrictions. Top international prospect Dermis Garcia landed a $3.2 million signing bonus from the Yankees in July, and while Ibanez does not have nearly as high a ceiling, his experience could net him a similar bonus.
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2B Hector Olivera
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Player Overview
The second base position is incredibly weak this offseason, and 29-year-old Hector Olivera could cash in this offseason as a result.
"At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote.
The 29-year-old missed the entire 2012-13 season and the last World Baseball Classic due to thrombosis in his left biceps, leaving his future in doubt. He returned strong in 2013-14, though, hitting .316/.412/.474 with seven home runs, 38 walks and 25 strikeouts in 273 plate appearances.
Predicted Contract: Three years, $12 million
The contracts of guys like Hiroyuki Nakajima (two years, $6.5 million) and Tadahito Iguchi (two years, $4.95 million) could be comparable, though the lack of other options at the position will likely mean more money for Olivera and a third year.
LHP Hyeon-jong Yang
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Player Overview
Hyeon-jong Yang is expected to be posted by the Kia Tigers at some point this offseason, and many view the 26-year-old as the top pitcher currently in the KBO.
"Yang projects as a No. 3 starter in the big-leagues, though according to a scout that has seen him throw, he could develop into a No. 2," wrote Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. "With a fastball that sits between 92-95 mph, Yang throws four pitches—fastball, curveball, slider and changeup—using his slider as his out pitch."
The left-hander was 16-8 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 28 starts last year, with that ERA sitting roughly a half-run lower than the league average in the hitter-friendly KBO.
Korean players are still subject to the old posting system, so teams will have to turn in their best offer if they hope to land what could be one of the market's best values on the pitching side of things.
Predicted Contract: Four years, $32 million (plus $18 million posting fee)
Yang probably won't see Hyun-Jin Ryu money (six years, $36 million, plus $25.7 million posting), but he should top what the Orioles gave Wei-Yin Chen (three years, $11.388 million).
RHP Kenta Maeda
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Player Overview
One of the top pitchers in the Japanese League, Kenta Maeda belongs squarely in the second tier of starting pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason, alongside guys like Ervin Santana and Francisco Liriano.
The 26-year-old has yet to be officially posted by the Hiroshima Carp this offseason, but once he is, there should be a number of teams willing to pay the max $20 million posting fee for the right to negotiate with him.
The right-hander was 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 187 innings of work this past season and is 82-59 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in his seven-year career.
Per Ben Badler of Baseball America:
"Maeda is a slightly-built 6 feet, 160 pounds and throws around 87-93 mph with good sink and run, though he doesn't get great angle on his fastball. He's a good athlete, which helps him repeat his delivery and thrive when his command, which can be plus at times, is on point. Maeda doesn't have one knockout secondary pitch, but he has a solid-average slider and mixes in a curveball and a changeup as well.
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So while he does not project to be a staff ace like fellow countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, Maeda is expected to be a plus middle-of-the-rotation arm with some upside.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $75 million (plus $20 million posting fee)
Ricky Doyle of NESN.com wrote last month that Maeda could see as much as $120 million-$130 million over six years, but given his perceived ceiling as a No. 3 starter, something more in the range of a $15 million salary annually would seem more reasonable.
Of Yasmany Tomas
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Player Overview
Yasmany Tomas opened eyes during the last World Baseball Classic, going 6-for-16 with a double and two home runs, and after defecting from Cuba in June, he is expected to be the next impact bat to come out of the country.
Thanks in part to the massive success of Jose Abreu last season, Tomas will almost certainly top the six-year, $68 million deal Abreu received from the White Sox and could break the record for a Cuban defector set by Rusney Castillo in August when he inked a seven-year, $72.5 million contract with the Red Sox.
The 23-year-old Tomas has a chance to be a legitimate star right off the bat, and like Abreu, it's his power that will be his biggest weapon.
"A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote.
The Philadelphia Phillies are viewed as the early favorites to sign Tomas, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
Predicted Contract: Seven years, $105 million
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a seven-year, $105 million deal at the end of September, and a $15 million annual salary seems like a reasonable expectation for the young slugger. Something in the $80 million to $110 million range would seem to be where things will land
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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