NFL Week 10 Predictions: Identifying Underdogs Who Will Pull off Upset Victories

If the Cleveland Browns' upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night is any indication, Week 10 figures to be quite kind to underdogs.

By and large, that has been the case all season long due to the unpredictable and volatile nature of the NFL. Outside opinions of teams can swing wildly from one week to the next, and there hasn't been much rhyme or reason regarding many of the results thus far.

That trend may very well continue this weekend, which means it would be wise for bettors to identify some prime upset candidates and roll the dice on them.

With that said, here is a breakdown of the top upset candidates on the Week 10 slate.

*Point spreads courtesy of Odds Shark.

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Sunday, Nov. 9	Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL (-3)	TB	TB
Sunday, Nov. 9	Tennessee Titans	Baltimore Ravens	BAL (-10)	BAL	BAL
Sunday, Nov. 9	Pittsburgh Steelers	New York Jets	PIT (-6)	PIT	PIT
Sunday, Nov. 9	San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-6)	SF	SF
Sunday, Nov. 9	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	DAL (-7.5)	DAL	JAC
Sunday, Nov. 9	Miami Dolphins	Detroit Lions	DET (-3)	DET	DET
Sunday, Nov. 9	Kansas City Chiefs	Buffalo Bills	KC (-2)	BUF	BUF
Sunday, Nov. 9	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	DEN (-11.5)	DEN	DEN
Sunday, Nov. 9	St. Louis Rams	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (-7)	ARI	ARI
Sunday, Nov. 9	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-10)	SEA	NYG
Sunday, Nov. 9	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	GB (-7.5)	GB	CHI
Monday, Nov. 10	Carolina Panthers	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-7)	PHI	CAR

San Francisco 49ers (+6) at New Orleans Saints

When NFL fans looked at the schedule at the start of the season, they probably figured that the Week 10 clash between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints would have first-place implications in the NFC. Instead, it features two teams that are struggling to remain in playoff contention.

They both sit at 4-4 currently, but there is no question that New Orleans is in a better position. It is first in the weak NFC South, and it has the benefit of playing at home. San Francisco, on the other hand, is third in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks staring down.

The Saints are six-point favorites after the Niners let one slip away against the pesky St. Louis Rams last week. Things couldn't look much more dire for the 49ers at this point, however, the expectation is that they will be motivated to compete and win on Sunday, according to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett:

New Orleans is as dominant as any team in the league at home, but the 49ers nearly won at the Superdome last year. San Francisco fell in 23-20, although the Saints were aided by a controversial roughing the passer call.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Niners can only afford to lose two more games this season, and even that may be stretching it. Their backs are against the wall, but running back Frank Gore still believes they'll be playing come January, per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area:

"

We're going to the playoffs. We're going to do it. We have great coaches. We have great guys. The last three years, we've been spoiled. That's where we want to go, to get to the postseason. Once everybody takes care of their jobs, we have a great shot.

"

Perhaps not everyone is as confident as Gore, but the 49ers definitely have the pieces necessary to stick with the Saints. That is especially true on offense. The New Orleans defense allows nearly 270 passing yards per game, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick has an impressive allotment of weapons at his disposal.

With wide receivers Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson as well as tight end Vernon Davis in the fold, the Saints will struggle to keep tabs on everyone.

A last-second fumble by Kap cost San Francisco the win last week. He knows that the team needs him to turn it around this week, and he will find a way to atone for the loss.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (+2)

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are two teams on the brink of playoff contention in the AFC, which makes their Week 10 encounter hugely important. The Chiefs are starting to look like the team that started 9-0 last year, while the Bills have changed for the better with Kyle Orton at quarterback.

Despite being the home team, Buffalo is a two-point underdog. Home dogs are always worth considering from a betting perspective, especially when recent history suggests they have a great chance to win.

That is the case with the Bills as they fell to the Chiefs 23-13 at home last year. Although KC won, it happened at a time when the Chiefs were at their best and Buffalo certainly wasn't. If not for some costly red-zone mistakes by overmatched quarterback Jeff Tuel, the Bills very well could have been the first team to knock off the Chiefs last season.

Those same quarterback issues aren't present right now for Buffalo. Orton has been spectacular, and he has especially thrived in clutch situations, according to Jerry Sullivan of The Buffalo News:

The biggest concern for Buffalo heading into this game is the health of both running back Fred Jackson and wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Their respective statuses are unclear as they are listed as questionable with groin injuries, per Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News:

Things will be much tougher for the Bills if one or both don't play, but they happen to have an elite defense to lean on. Buffalo is second in both sacks and interceptions, which means conservative quarterback Alex Smith could be forced into some uncharacteristic mistakes.

The Bills also have a strong run defense that allows a mere 3.6 yards per carry. Running back Jamaal Charles is the key to Kansas City's offensive success, so Buffalo can throw the Chiefs off their game by stopping him.

Buffalo has a stretch of four winnable games coming up before a difficult run to close the season. It has to realize that the time to make noise in the standings is now, and that desperation will lead to a victory.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Atlanta Falcons throttled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14 when they met in Week 3, which is likely why Atlanta is favored on the road. That loss couldn't have left a good taste in the mouths of Bucs players, though, which means they'll be out for revenge.

Since that initial meeting, these two teams have combined for exactly one victory. Atlanta is 0-5 after a 2-1 start and is 0-5 overall away from the Georgia Dome. That fact alone makes the Falcons an extremely dangerous pick from a betting perspective this week.

According to D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Falcons' struggles have plenty to do with their inability to perform late in games:

They also allow nearly 28 points per game and rank 30th against the pass defensively. That could prove fatal against a Buccaneers offense that boasts a pair of big, athletic wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans.

Josh McCown will start at quarterback for Tampa this week, and while he is far from elite, he should have plenty of time to throw due to Atlanta's incompetence in terms of applying pressure, per ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure:

Add in the fact that the Falcons offensive line is ailing, and there isn't much to like about their chances aside from their dominant showing against the Bucs several weeks ago.

Atlanta can compete if quarterback Matt Ryan gets on a hot streak, but his play has dropped off considerably in recent weeks and he'll have to deal with a Buccaneers defense that promises to be motivated.

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