5 MLB Players Who Are High-Upside Change-of-Scenery Trade Targets
Sometimes things just don’t work out in Major League Baseball. No matter how much talent or upside a player may have, it isn’t always in the cards that the results will meet expectations with one franchise.
There is no reason for it, of course. It is just the nature of things in MLB.
Look no further for evidence than Jake Arrieta.
After pitching to a 5.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP and a 1.472 WHIP over 69 outings with the Baltimore Orioles, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs last season and has put up a 2.81 ERA, 2.92 FIP and a 1.022 WHIP in 34 starts. To be sure, there are many factors that have gone into his success with the Cubs, but the bottom line is that the talent was always there. It was a matter of finding a fresh start after stagnating with the Orioles.
So, who are the guys who would benefit most from a change of scenery this offseason? Here are five MLB veterans with high upsides most in need of a new beginning.
Elvis Andrus, SS
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Over his career, Elvis Andrus has compiled an acceptable .272/.335/.345 slash line and has swiped 192 bags. That is production from the shortstop position that plays well across MLB.
That said, his time with the Texas Rangers could be at an end.
True, the health of Jurickson Profar is a concern, but if his shoulder precludes him from playing short, the Rangers also have Luis Sardinas ready for a larger role. And then there’s Andrus’ eight-year, $120 million extension that is set to begin after the 2015 season.
Any way it's looked at, there are obstacles to trading Andrus.
One thing helping the Rangers should they make a concerted effort to move the right-handed hitter is that he is slightly better at the plate away from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, according to Baseball-Reference:
| BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | RBI | tOPS+ | |
| Home | .270 | .333 | .340 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 98 | 166 | 98 |
| Away | .274 | .337 | .351 | 76 | 11 | 13 | 94 | 139 | 102 |
True, the Rangers will have to assume most of the money still owed on his contract, but there are more than a few teams that make sense as destination points.
Joel Sherman from the New York Post mentioned him as a possible replacement for Derek Jeter. And ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield suggested the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals.
A fresh start with any of those clubs will serve Andrus well.
Andre Ethier, OF
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If nothing else, Andre Ethier needs to find a new club so that he can get regular playing time and contribute in a meaningful fashion.
After all, he was forced to the bench for the final two months in 2014 after Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly finally decided to go with Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford as the everyday outfielders. Ethier handled the decision well, but he has the type of talent that must be in the lineup on a daily basis if there is to be any value in his contract.
And with the ascension of Joc Pederson, the Dodgers outfield only gets more crowded. A change of scenery gets Ethier on the field more often and opens up numerous opportunities for Mattingly and the Dodgers.
As far as his production goes, there is no doubt that it took a dive this past season when he finished with a .249/.322/.370 slash line and only four home runs in 341 at-bats. That said, he is but one season removed from hitting .272 with a .783 on-base plus slugging.
That line plays well toward the bottom of any MLB order. And if he can find his way to an American League club that can give him even a modest amount of at-bats as the designated hitter in addition to playing the outfield, the chance is good that his output will improve.
To be sure, the $53.5 million remaining on Ethier’s contract (not including a $17.5 million vesting option in 2018 that has a $2.5 million buyout) is a big concern. But as Joel Sherman from the New York Post noted, “Dodgers officials have let teams know they are willing to kick in cash or take a problematic contract back to facilitate a trade.”
Will Middlebrooks, 3B
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Will Middlebrooks has been in the midst of this conversation for some time.
As far back as July 8, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman opined during an appearance on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Gresh and Zolak Show that he was a change-of-scenery candidate, via CBS Boston. Now, Heyman correctly noted that Middlebrooks wasn’t going anywhere at the time, but the situation has only deteriorated since then.
On the field, the right-handed hitter put up a .188/.230/.236 slash line with one home run and 10 RBI in 137 at-bats for the Boston Red Sox in the season’s second half. Off the field, there are widespread rumors that the club is pursuing either Pablo Sandoval or Chase Headley this offseason to play third base for the next several seasons.
Simply put, keeping Middlebrooks serves little purpose. Sure, he provides depth, but with Brock Holt, Garin Cecchini and Xander Bogaerts on the 40-man roster, manager John Farrell has options.
To be sure, the return will be minimal, and the Red Sox would be wise to have a replacement under contract before they consider moving Middlebrooks, but switching teams is the best thing for him.
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Dayan Viciedo, LF/RF
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Dayan Vicideo is always on the trade block.
As early as the 2012 offseason, Mark Gonzalez from the Chicago Tribune reported that “two sources confirmed the [Chicago White] Sox and [Seattle] Mariners had discussed a deal involving” the outfielder.
This past season, there were multiple reports that the right-handed hitter could be on the move.
CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine, for example, wrote during spring training that “the Sox and Mariners have had trade discussions on a deal that could center around Viciedo.” That report was followed up by one from ESPN.com’s Gordon Edes in July that the M’s and San Francisco Giants had approached White Sox general manager Rick Hahn.
So the interest is certainly there. What about the need for a change? From White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson, via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin:
"You watch him on a daily basis and you know what he's capable of doing. And when it doesn't come out for him, you know ... .230 or whatever he hit this year, in my opinion, that's not him.
He has ability to hit for average and obviously has the ability to hit for power to all fields. His gifts from this year have been well chronicled, and he's got to take that by the horn.
"
While Steverson didn’t say Viciedo needed to go, the fact that he has so much talent but has failed to find consistency with the White Sox screams change of scenery.
The most important thing Steverson mentioned was Viciedo’s power the opposite way. To that end, he finished with a .301/.301/.584 directional split to right field last season. Frankly, hitting the ball the other way is one of his strengths.
That means that while Safeco Field simply eats up right-handed sluggers because of the dimensions to left field, Viciedo may be able to take advantage of his ability to drive the ball to right field. The same can be said about AT&T Park where the Giants play.
Edwin Jackson, RHP
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In addition to being a prime candidate for a salary exchange, Edwin Jackson is best served if he is no longer pitching for the Chicago Cubs next season.
Regarding that salary exchange, Jackson’s name has been linked to Atlanta Braves outfielder B.J. Upton. David O’Brien from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote toward the end of August that “the principles of the deal that was discussed before the July 31 trade deadline would’ve involved the Braves and Cubs swapping terrible contracts and hoping a change of scenery would help the players involved.”
That sentiment holds true for each player.
Specifically as it relates to Jackson, however, he has not lived up to expectations with the Cubs since signing a four-year, $52 million contract prior to the 2013 season.
And make no mistake, there is a chance that Jackson can rebound nicely. After all, he’s found moderate success in the past, posting a 4.10 ERA with a 3.75 FIP and a 1.353 WHIP with four clubs—Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals—from 2010-12.
Jackson has the stuff. He just needs a new mound to call home.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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