Assigning Bust Ratings to the Top 10 Star MLB Free Agents on the Market
Predicting how a player will perform after signing a free-agent contract is half the fun this time of year. After all, MLB is a sport that uses metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s current contributions as well as to indicate what type of success he will have in the future.
So, what are the risks associated with the top free agents available this offseason?
Using player comparisons, projected production numbers, various evaluations and a host of other information, we will break down bust ratings for everyone from Pablo Sandoval to Jon Lester.
On a scale from 1-5, players will be given a rating, with lower numbers associated with lower risk.
For the record, the ratings will be based on how well we think a player will perform over the life of his contract. In certain circumstances, multiple ratings will be given, since there are mitigating circumstances for some of the men on this list.
Here are the bust ratings for the top 10 MLB stars hitting the open market.
10. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
1 of 10
As SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee noted, "[Pablo] Sandoval is a very good, well-rounded player. He hits for average, hits for a little power, fields well, throws the ball hard and accurately, and runs better than you might expect.”
Each one of those points is accurate, but for how much longer?
FanGraphs’ Steamer projection has him putting up a 3.8 fWAR and a 120 wRC+ in 2015. Those are both solid numbers. And he will likely put up similar numbers for a couple more seasons.
The only question is this: What does 2018-20 hold in store when he is relegated to designated hitter because his skills at third have deteriorated to the point where he is no longer an option in the field? What about his bat speed?
And seeing as how the production at the back end of his contract is how the deal will ultimately be judged, it is an important question. We are not fortune tellers, but the outlook can’t be good.
Just ask Alex Speier from WEEI.com.
While noting that there is a small amount of empirical evidence that suggests Sandoval could end up being a productive hitter in his age-32 season (year five of any contract), his “conditioning makes him a bad bet to sustain his offensive performance for” five years.
And if he gets the sixth year that his agent said he was seeking, according to Henry Schulman from the San Francisco Chronicle, the contract could look even worse.
Bust Rating: 2.5
9. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
2 of 10
Hiroki Kuroda has started at least 30 games in six out of his seven seasons. He has never had an ERA or an FIP above 3.86. He has been worth, at minimum, a 3.3 fWAR five times, never dipping below 2.1 fWAR.
What that tells us is that Kuroda is one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB since his career began with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2008.
In fact, he ranks 14th in ERA (3.45), 17th in FIP (3.61) and 19th in fWAR (22.6) among pitchers with at least 1,000 inning pitched since 2008. And he has largely avoided injury over that stretch.
The only thing that will prevent Kuroda from being a significant contributor next season is if he retires. And as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch noted, there is no guarantee that he will suit up in 2015.
If he does sign a contract for next year, however, the chances are better than good that he will once again perform admirably.
Bust Rating: 1.5
8. Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B
3 of 10
Hanley Ramirez will only be as valuable as the position he plays.
By that, of course, we mean that if he is given a nine-figure contract to play shortstop, he will be an unmitigated disaster by year three. Thankfully, it is unlikely that he will be signed as a shortstop—at least initially.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman recently noted that Ramirez “is telling interested teams he is willing to play ‘wherever there's a need,’ a clear signal he would switch to third base and perhaps even elsewhere on the diamond” for whichever club signs him this offseason.
If true, it is a wise decision.
Not only will a move away from shortstop net him more money, but it could also forestall a decline in hitting due to injury. Simply put, the less he plays up the middle, the better the chances are that his back, knees, elbow and hamstrings can hold out for five to seven years.
So this is what it boils down to: If Ramirez plays shortstop his first year, switches to third base or an outfield spot for years two and three, before becoming a designated hitter for the remainder of his contract, there is a strong chance he will end up exceeding expectations. He is that good of a hitter, particularly as it relates to on-base percentage (lifetime .373 OBP) and slugging (.500).
If, however, a desperate club signs him to play shortstop exclusively for the first three years, his defensive liabilities and injury problems will prevent a substantial return.
Bust Rating Exclusively at Shortstop: 5
Bust Rating as Any Other Combination: 2
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7. James Shields, RHP
4 of 10
Three things are at the heart of the conversation regarding James Shields.
First off is his expected contract. MLBTradeRumors.com’s Tim Dierkes has him pegged for a five-year, $95 million pact. Evan Grant from The Dallas Morning News posited that he could land a ive-year deal worth anywhere from $80 million to $90 million because “there is nothing logical about the free-agent market.”
Whatever the number, that is a lot of coin for a guy who’s pitched to a 3.72 ERA and 3.77 FIP over his nine seasons.
Second, will his arm hold up for five seasons? After all, he’s logged at least 203.1 innings every season since 2007, topping out at 249.1 innings in 2011. You’d have to figure that at some point an extended trip to the disabled list is in order.
Another thing to keep in mind is that his velocity is down. To that end, the velo on his cutter dipped to 86.4 mph this past season, which is down from 90.7 mph as recently as 2012.
True, the decline in speed could be due to the fact that he’s offsetting the knuckle-curve he began throwing two seasons ago and employed 11.3 percent of the time in 2014.
It must also be noted that his fastball has remained consistent. Either way, the fact that he threw his cutter 735 more times in 2014 than he did just two years ago and that the velocity is down is something to keep an eye on in the coming years.
All told, the concern here is huge. It is just hard to see Shields seeing the end of a five-year contract as anything other than a No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
Bust Rating: 4
6. Nelson Cruz, DH
5 of 10
What is it exactly that you are expecting out of Nelson Cruz?
That is the question that must be answered when trying to identify the likelihood that he will end up being a bust.
If the only thing needed is a home run total around 30 and a slugging percentage in the vicinity of .450, then he will probably be just fine. True, belting 40 long balls should not be an assumption when thinking about Cruz, but 25-30 in any given season is realistic.
Should on-base percentage and consistent production throughout the year be the priority, well then, Cruz probably isn’t your man.
When playing in more than 110 games, for example, he has never finished with an OBP above the .333 he put up in 2014, and it’s been as low as .312 in 2011. Simply put, he isn’t a very patient hitter.
And you can’t dismiss the streaky nature of his game.
Just this past season, he put together a .315/.383/.675 slash line with 20 home runs and 52 RBI through May 31. From that point until the beginning of September, his slash was a woeful .214/.283/.398, before he turned it on in the season’s final month and into the postseason.
So all told, if we look at a year’s worth of work, Cruz’s numbers will be fine. Whichever club signs him will have to endure stretches of inconsistency, but he handles his when the time calls for it, assembling a .288/.351/.546 slash with men on base in 2014.
Yes, he’s going to be expensive, likely looking at a three-year contract, but Cruz will do what he is paid for—and do it well.
Bust Rating: 1.5
5. Chase Headley, 3B
6 of 10
FanGraphs’ Steamer projection has Chase Headley contributing a .258/.344/.406 slash line with 16 home runs and 68 RBI while compiling a 4.1 fWAR and a 112 wRC+. Using fWAR as the main ranking criterion, he is projected to rank eighth among all MLB third basemen if we exclude Miguel Cabrera, who is no longer a third baseman.
To be sure, those are lofty projections, but can they be trusted?
Well, if he was going to play a full season, those are certainly attainable, but with Headley, injury is always a factor when forecasting his production.
But what about the .262/.371/.398 slash line he put up with the New York Yankees following his acquisition from the San Diego Padres in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline?
Two days after the trade, FanGraphs’ Tony Blengino wrote that teams “should be very careful not to put too much stock into a strong finish in a friendly park, and instead pay closer heed to what appears to be a player in steady offensive decline.” Those could turn out to be prophetic words, indeed.
Because of the uncertain nature of his back and the fact that he is on the downside of his career at the plate, the risk is quite high that he will not be able to hold up his end of the bargain, especially on a long-term deal.
Bust Rating on a Three- or Four-Year Deal: 4
Bust Rating on a One- or Two-Year Deal: 2.5
4. Victor Martinez, DH
7 of 10
This will be Victor Martinez’s second dance with free agency, not counting his signing by the Cleveland Indians in 1996 as an amateur free agent. In his first one, he landed a four-year, $50 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, and with the exception of the 2012 season, which he missed in its entirety, he exceeded expectations.
Based on history, it has to be assumed that he will continue to rake for some time.
First off, nothing about his production since 2010 tells us otherwise. In each season, he has put up an on-base percentage above .350 and a slugging percentage of at least .430. And since he is not a power hitter by nature, those numbers may not be impacted as greatly by his advancing age as some fear.
Secondly, Martinez hasn’t appeared in more than 26 games behind the plate since 2011. And he will not be called upon to do so in the future, thereby mitigating many of his injury concerns. In fact, since he ceased catching regularly, he has appeared in at least 145 games every year he’s been active.
True, hitting 32 home runs again is unlikely, but leaving the yard is not why Martinez is so valuable. He is valuable because of the fact that he is a switch-hitter who can find the gap from either side of the plate and has the ability to protect the hitter in front of him.
Even on a four-year deal, Martinez will be worth the investment.
Bust Rating: 4.5
3. Russell Martin, C
8 of 10
Russell Martin certainly brings a lot to a 25-man roster, and it goes past the .290 batting average and .832 on-base plus slugging he put up in 2014.
Take, for example, how much better certain pitchers are with him on the mound.
As Buster Olney from ESPN.com pointed out, Francisco Liriano had a 2.92 ERA with 204/81 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons with Martin behind the plate. Without him calling pitches, Liriano’s ERA rose to 3.67 and his strikeouts-to-walk ratio dropped to 134-to-63.
He also added 19.3 runs in 2014 thanks to his framing, ranking sixth in MLB, according to BaseballProspectus.com. In other words, he makes the pitching staff better.
And that is why a long-term deal for Martin is likely to pay huge dividends. Simply put, even if his bat falls back to his yearly average prior to the 2014 season (.255/.349/.396, 14 HR, 59 RBI), he will still hold immense value thanks to his other tools.
Martin figures to be the closest thing to a guaranteed contributor over the life of his contract among the premier free agents available.
Bust Rating: 4.5
2. Max Scherzer, RHP
9 of 10
Since 2012, Max Scherzer has a 55-15 record with a 3.24 ERA, 2.94 FIP and 1.134 WHIP and is averaging an impressive 10.5 strikeouts every nine innings.
By comparison, Justin Verlander went 59-22 with a 2.79 ERA, 2.97 FIP and 1.043 WHIP and averaged 8.9 strikeouts every nine innings in the three years prior to signing a five-year, $140 million extension before the start of the 2013 season. In the two campaigns since, Verlander is four games over .500 and is sporting a 3.99 ERA and a 3.50 FIP.
True, they aren’t the same pitcher, but the parallels between Scherzer and Verlander are real.
And let’s not overlook the fact that Scherzer benefited greatly by pitching at Comerica Park, amassing a 3.46 ERA in 100 games at home as compared to a 3.70 ERA in 107 games on the road. That may not seem like much, but it is.
So while there is no doubt that Scherzer is the best right-hander on the market, whichever team sings him has to be concerned about its investment. Look no further than Verlander for evidence.
Bust Rating: 3
1. Jon Lester, LHP
10 of 10
Jon Lester seems to be the safest bet among starting pitchers.
In breaking down the star free agent, SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee had this to say:
"In his worst season, Lester still missed enough bats to be effective (in theory). In four of those seven seasons, he was an ace's ace -- one of the top pitchers in the American League, even if the ERAs weren't exactly sexy enough to pick up Cy Young votes. The raw stats also ignore that Lester pitched in hitter's parks more often than not, with Tropicana Field the only respite in the AL East for a pitcher who isn't getting as many grounders as he used to. Not only has Lester been good, he's been better than you might think.
"
One concern is his durability.
That statement may seem odd considering that he has made at least 31 starts and logged a minimum of 191.2 innings every season since 2008. But like James Shields, it may only be a matter of time before the extended workload takes its toll on his left arm.
Potentially impacting the bust rating is that Lester isn’t necessarily looking to set any records with his contract. “I'm not going to the highest bidder," Lester said, via John Tomase from the Boston Herald (subscription required). “I'm going to the place that makes me and my family happy.”
If true, the bust rating goes down since the financial investment won’t be absurd when compared to other contracts handed out this offseason.
Bust Rating: 2
Unless otherwise noted, statistics and velocity information are courtesy of FanGraphs and/or Baseball-Reference. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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