Ranking MLB's 5 Best Bullpen Arms Available This Offseason
Bullpen additions may not come off as sexy as signing a star position player or bona fide ace, but they often produce a similar impact on the MLB landscape.
Look no further than the 2014 World Series.
Both the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals boasted talented, versatile bullpens that greatly shortened the game. These collections of late-inning arms were significant reasons why both teams made it to the Fall Classic.
This free-agent class of relievers may lack a bona fide star, but there's plenty of talent ready to help their next team finish off games. David Robertson enters the market as the most coveted free agent, although guys such as Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson and Zach Duke each provide their own value out of the pen.
Strikeouts, run prevention and matchup strengths are common themes in the players found on this list. A bullpen is the last line of defense, so these rankings value the guys who consistently keep runs off the board.
If your team is in need of bullpen help (looking at you Detroit), the following relief pitchers need to be targeted by your club this offseason.
Honorable Mentions
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As with any sort of rankings, there are always a few notable omissions that just miss the cut. In a competitive market, here are two such players:
Pat Neshek
Many may be surprised to find Neshek, a 2014 NL All-Star, this low on the list. After all, the funky right-hander posted a 1.87 ERA in 71 appearances for the St. Louis Cardinals last season.
Yet those 71 appearances marked the first time since 2007 that Neshek has pitched in over 70 games. A fantastic 2014 should help Neshek earn a multiyear contract, but a history of injuries and inconsistency is enough to keep him off this list.
Rafael Soriano
Sure 2014 was a rough year for Soriano, but the 34-year-old has proven he is a capable closer in the right situation. Soriano saved 75 games in his two seasons in Washington, despite ERAs over three.
Oddly enough, the right-hander has fared much better in the AL than the NL. With over 200 career saves, Soriano will bring a wealth of experience to his new team. A team with a steady closer looking to shore up the rest of its bullpen could be a nice fit for the aging righty.
5. Luke Hochevar
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Before Tommy John surgery ended his 2014 season prematurely, Luke Hochevar seemed to be the latest failed starter to rejuvenate his career with a move to the bullpen.
Hochevar was taken with the first overall pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2006, but he never panned out as a starter. During his tenure as a starting pitcher for Kansas City, the right-hander's lowest ERA was 4.68 in 2011. He was banished to the bullpen in 2013 after years of underachieving as a top draft pick.
That move may have actually saved the 31-year-old's career.
In 2013, Hochevar was a different pitcher. He appeared in 58 games, posting a 1.92 ERA and striking out over 10 per nine innings. His 2.26 SIERA ranked 12th out of all MLB relievers, while stranding 92.1 percent of his runners. Only Huston Street and Craig Kimbrel were more successful at stranding potential runs.
What changed for the desperate hurler?
As David G. Temple of FanGraphs wrote back in April 2014, much of Hochevar's improvement can be attributed to his pitch selection:
"The four-seamer was still there, but that saw a big jump in value, most likely due to the increased velocity (from 92.6 to 95.6 MPH). The cut fastball saw a big jump in usage, while the sinker took a back seat. The biggest change came from breaking pitches however. Both his curveball and slider usage saw a drop of around 12% each.
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A move to the bullpen was a blessing in disguise for Hochevar because it allowed for him to focus on a more refined arsenal of pitches. By relying heavily on increased fastball velocity and a cutter that held opposing hitters to a .128 average, he was able to dramatically improve his K/9 and run prevention.
Any pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery presents a risk, but Hochevar's turnaround in 2013 should warrant a new contract. After seeing how Wade Davis of the Royals transitioned from a struggling starter to a dominant bullpen piece, Hochevar could very well be destined for similar success in 2015.
4. Zach Duke
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Another starter-turned-reliever who enjoyed a breakout season in a bullpen role was Zach Duke.
Duke's final stint as a starting pitcher in 2010 was horrific. The lefty posted a 5.72 ERA in 29 starts, striking out as many hitters as he walked. He also allowed a 13.7 home run-to-fly ball ratio in a season where he gave up 25 round-trippers.
After bouncing around the league, Duke earned a spot on Milwaukee's Opening Day roster as a left-handed specialist. He turned out to be the Milwaukee Brewers' best reliever in 2014, recording a 2.45 ERA and striking out over 11 per nine innings. Duke's 2.14 FIP ranked 13th for MLB relievers, better than names such as David Robertson, Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen.
Used mainly against left-handed hitters, Duke allowed those hitters a .198 average, .267 OBP and a .258 wOBA with a mix of a two-seam fastball, curve and slider. His curve was particularly deadly, as hitters managed a feeble .182 average and 21 wRC+. In other words, Duke's curve allowed 79 percent fewer runs than the league average.
Yet as Steven Jewell of RevivingtheBrew.com stated in a recent article, Duke's season could have been even better than it was. To quote Jewell, "perhaps more amazing was that these numbers were achieved while Duke faced a .322 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), meaning that he was slightly unlikely."
Dependable lefty relievers have become crucial in a modern MLB obsessed with matchups. Duke's 2014 season produced incredibly successful results, making him a highly attractive free-agent target.
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3. Luke Gregerson
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One of the most reliable relievers over the last few seasons, Luke Gregerson will likely continue that run of good form in 2015 and beyond.
Unlike the previous two entries in these rankings, Gregerson has been a model of consistency throughout his career. In a game with so many different variables, it's nice to have a dependable arm in the pen. Although Hochevar and Duke look to have righted the ship, Gregerson has been performing at this level his entire career.
How consistent has the right-hander been? In Yahoo Sport's Jeff Passan's offseason free-agent rankings, he ranks Gregerson 37th with this interesting nugget of information:
"Here's the list of relief pitchers with ERAs of 2.75 or better for the past four full seasons: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara and Gregerson. His consistency merits him a spot up here and the three-year contract that goes with it.
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Piggybacking on that concept, Gregerson has appeared in at least 70 games in every season since his debut in 2009 sans a 61-appearence season in 2011. His FIP hasn't exceeded 3.40 during that time, with a SIERA under 3.00 excluding an outlier in 2011.
Gregerson is a ground-ball specialist, capable of inducing double plays. With a devastating slider, he has produced ground-ball rates of over 45 percent in every season of his MLB career. In fact, Gregerson has used his slider over 56 percent of the time during his time in the big leagues, holding hitters to a measly .180 average and a 35 percent strikeout percentage.
The groundout machine has struck out over eight per nine innings in his career, but his ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him a valuable bullpen target. At just 30 years of age, Gregerson should be in position to receive a multiyear deal from his next club.
2. Andrew Miller
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Guess what? Yep, we have another former starter who's found his niche as a bullpen ace.
Andrew Miller was arguably the best left-handed reliever not named Aroldis Chapman in 2014. After years of struggles led to multiple changes of scenery, the lefty worked in 73 games with a 2.02 ERA this season.
Excluding Chapman's ridiculous strikeout record, Miller struck out more hitters per nine innings (14.87) than any other pitcher in all of baseball. His 1.51 FIP (third), 1.58 xFIP (second), 2.3 WAR (sixth), 1.21 SIERA (second) and .150 average against (fifth) prove that he was one of the more dominant late-inning arms in MLB this season.
As August Fagerstrom from FanGraphs discussed in an October article, Miller's dominant 2014 was largely due a drastic drop in walks.
Averaging almost five walks per nine innings throughout his career, the lanky southpaw dropped that total to just over two per nine this season. With a career strikeout rate of close to nine per nine innings, a significant dip in free passes allowed Miller to dominate.
And he did so with just two pitches, albeit effective ones.
Miller basically ditched every other pitch in his repertoire, relying on a four-seam fastball and a nasty slider. His fastball velocity may have dipped a tad, but he walked just nine batters with it all season.
Plus when hitters are hitting .081 with a 61.7 percent strikeout percentage and minus-19 wRC+ against your slider, your fastball velocity isn't nearly as important as throwing it for a strike. His slider allowed 112 percent fewer runs than the league average.
Good luck, MLB hitters.
Miller's inclusion this high on the list is due to a simple fact: Elite left-handed pitchers don't grow on trees. Sure, there's some risk, especially if he returns back to his walk-happy ways. But by dominating the American League in such impressive fashion, Miller has to be considered one of the best relievers in the game today.
1. David Robertson
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The best available reliever in this free-agent class is David Robertson.
In his first season as the full-time closer for the New York Yankees, Robertson saved 39 games, while striking out over 13 batters per nine innings. His 3.08 ERA was almost a run higher than in 2013, but don't let that fool you. A 2.68 FIP was actually lower than his career norm, while his 2.13 xFIP and 1.88 SIERA set new career bests for the right-hander.
This success is nothing new to Robertson; it's just come with the heightened since of responsibility of replacing the legendary Mariano Rivera. In his primary role as Rivera's setup man, Robertson has struck out just a tick below 12 per nine innings and has stranded over 80 percent of his baserunners.
Continuing that theme of consistent production, Robertson ranks 11th in K/9, 15th in FIP, seventh in xFIP, ninth in strikeout percentage, seventh in SIERA and eighth in WAR for relief pitchers since 2012. Robertson was an elite reliever long before he took over the reins in the ninth inning in the Bronx.
Robertson is actually better against lefties than righties. His outstanding cutter explodes onto the hands of left-handed hitters, similar to Rivera's famous cut fastball. He has also begun to incorporate a knuckle-curve into his arsenal. The results didn't come at first in 2013, as hitters mashed a .304 average against it. But with a much higher usage rate in 2014, opposing batters were held to a lowly .165 average.
Tim Dierkes from MLB Trade Rumors ranked Robertson as the best available bullpen piece on the market:
"Robertson is the best free agent reliever this winter, and the 29-year-old may be aiming to top Jonathan Papelbon's four-year, $50MM deal. Indeed, a reliever of Robertson's caliber hasn't hit the free agent market since Pabelbon three years ago.
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The pitchers that comprise these rankings should all see lucrative paydays and success going forward, but Robertson is the best of the bunch.
Yes Hochevar and Duke have settled into nice roles, Gregerson has remained consistent and Miller looks like he could be the next dominant reliever.
But Robertson's successful experience replacing a legend combined with consistent excellence throughout his career merits him the top spot on this list.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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