Week 10 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

The month of November started out with a smaller slate of games due to a bevy of inactive teams with Week 9 byes. Unfortunately, bettors will have limited choices once more, as Week 10 also features just 13 matchups.

Due to the fact that there aren't as many games to choose from, we must be extra cautious when assessing matchups and determining which games are the safest bets. After all, unexpected conclusions have been running amok this season, leaving many gambling enthusiasts a little light in the pockets.

Luckily for us, at this point of the season, we know what every team has to offer. We can use each team's recent on-field product to compare and contrast how a clash between two squads that haven't met yet this year could potentially turn out.

That said, let's take a look at the most recent Vegas odds, predict a winner for each contest against the spread and highlight three matchups that look like great bets.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -6.5	Bengals
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL -1.5	Falcons
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -10.5	Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets	PIT -4.5	Steelers
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints	NO -5	Saints
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars*	DAL -7.5	Jaguars
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions	DET -2	Lions
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills	KC -1	Chiefs
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders	DEN -12.5	Broncos
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks	SEA -10.5	Giants
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals	AZ -8	Cardinals
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers	GB -8	Packers
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7	Panthers

All game lines courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 5.

Pick Analysis

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) at New York Jets

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

This matchup has everything to do with the participating quarterbacks. The Steelers are riding a red-hot Ben Roethlisberger, while the Jets are biding their time with Michael Vick after benching Geno Smith.

The Jets are actually ranked 12th in the league against the pass heading into Week 10; however, that ranking may be a little deceiving considering a lack of quality opposing quarterbacks. When New York faced off against any top-tier signal-caller, it gave up plenty of yards and points. Let's put it this way: Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady each threw for three touchdowns against the Jets.

Now this team must face a quarterback who is coming off back-to-back six-touchdown performances—the first time any signal-caller has done that in the history of the league. Here's a look at what Pittsburgh's signal-caller has done in his last two outings combined, via NFL Stats:

It sure seems as though Roethlisberger has the upper hand here.

On the flip side, Vick showed a great deal of improvement against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9; although, he was only able to lead the offense to 10 points on nine drives. Pittsburgh has given up yards through the air this season, but Vick's inability to score when deep in an opponent's territory could prove to be problematic here.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Jets 20

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Buffalo Bills

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

We're at an unfortunate time of the year where injuries can begin to take their toll on NFL teams. That's the case for the Bills as they head into their Week 10 clash against the Chiefs.

Buffalo already underwent one major change on the offensive side of the ball, as the coaching staff decided to bench quarterback EJ Manuel in favor of journeyman veteran Kyle Orton. While Orton has been more successful than some analysts anticipated to this point, he will have a rough road ahead with a lack of weapons.

Running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller were both shelved in Week 9, forcing Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown into action. Neither replacement back fared well, as they averaged 2.0 and 2.1 yards per carry, respectively. That lackluster running game will be back in action in Week 10.

Making matters worse, the team's most prolific wide receiver, rookie Sammy Watkins, suffered a groin injury in practice on Wednesday. Luckily, he is in line to play, according to Rotoworld Football:

Still, if he's hampered slightly, that won't bode well for a team that struggles to run the football and is facing the league's top-ranked passing defense. Kansas City is only allowing an average of 199.4 yards per game through the air, and that will severely hinder a one-dimensional Bills offense.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 17 

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

This contest could come down to exactly how efficient Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer can be through the air against the St. Louis secondary.

At first glance, it appears as though the signal-caller could be in for a long day. The Rams are ranked eighth in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 225.3 yards per game. They are also very good at keeping long passing plays off the stat sheet, ranking eighth in that category as well while allowing 23 plays of 20-plus yards through eight games.

Although, there is one big factor that must be taken into consideration here, and that would be the lack of a St. Louis pass rush. Despite having very talented players along the defensive line, the Rams haven't been able to put it all together this season, accumulating just 14 sacks, ranking 23rd in the league in that category.

Meanwhile, Palmer has been exceptional against the rush. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the quarterback actually has a 122.3 passer rating when facing a blitz. If the Rams are looking to create more pressure by bringing extra defenders on the pass rush, this isn't the quarterback to do it against.

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports sure seems to be impressed with the quarterback of late:

Expect Palmer to have plenty of time to find wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown on Sunday en route to a decisive win over the visiting Rams.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 17