10 Under-the-Radar Pitchers Who Could Be Free-Agent Steals
For good reason, most of the attention regarding free-agent pitching around MLB is given to the biggest names available.
After all, guys like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are championship-caliber rotation pieces who can turn the fortune of any franchise. They are that good.
But what about pitchers who qualify as under-the-radar free agents who are going to sign short-term deals for a reasonable salary? What about the hurlers who are coming off injury or a season that didn’t live up to past production levels?
Here are 10 MLB free-agent pitchers who will impact a rotation, yet aren’t part of the national conversation at the highest level. To be clear, there are more than 10, but the men who follow will certainly qualify as steals if they can pitch to their capabilities.
10. Brett Anderson, LHP
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Brett Anderson could end up being quite the steal.
First off, he's got good stuff. To that end, Anderson has compiled a 3.73 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 92 career appearances (81 starts). He also has a lifetime 1.285 WHIP.
Each one of those metrics is enticing. There is also this from ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required):
"When healthy, Anderson has been very effective, and he's healthy once again and seems primed for his first sort-of full season in four years -- not that it'll take even that much to make him a worthwhile signing. Even 100 innings from Anderson (which would be a lot for him, given his recent history) would make him worth more than 2 WAR (based on both his track record and the ZiPS projections), and his fastball/slider combo looked as good as ever when he was able to pitch in 2014.
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And the fact that he didn’t get swallowed by the launching pad they call Coors Field is a positive sign. True, he pitched to a 1.043 WHIP in four road starts last season while putting up a 1.623 WHIP at home, but he largely pitched around trouble at Coors Field instead of consistently falling victim to the big inning.
All that said, Anderson’s biggest selling point will be his price. More specifically, he won’t have much leverage in contract negotiations after starting only 19 games over the past three seasons.
That’s what happens when, at 26, a pitcher has already gone on the 60-day disabled list due to Tommy John surgery, a broken a finger, a fracture in his foot and a lower-back explosion. It’s been an unfortunate series of events for Anderson.
That makes a one-year deal with an option and incentives likely. Simply put, it is in his best interest to prove himself fully healthy and then use his considerable talent to secure a long-term contract next offseason.
For now, however, Anderson represents a low-cost, low-risk proposition.
9. Chad Billingsley, RHP
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From 2008 through 2012, Chad Billingsley went 61-52 with a 3.70 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.336 WHIP and averaged 30 starts per season. In other words, he proved himself to be both durable and effective.
That was, of course, prior to Tommy John surgery in 2013 and then another procedure this past season to repair a torn flexor tendon. Thankfully, Billingsley has been told that the rehab following his latest operation is “not as long as Tommy John rehab” and that it should take “about six months,” per Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com (h/t Tadd Haislop from SportingNews.com).
If, as expected, the right-hander continues to progress with his rehabilitation and is ready for spring training next season, he is another pitcher who could be had for an inexpensive contract.
It must be noted that further updates on his health will be needed before any organization takes a chance on him. In other words, he likely won’t sign a contract until after Jan. 1, but there is no mistaking the fact that he has a wealth of upside.
8. Aaron Harang, RHP
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Aaron Harang has earned some long-term security, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.
“Given that he is just seven months removed from joining his sixth organization in a span of 12 months,” Bowman wrote, “there is reason to be hesitant about giving him the two-year deal he is seeking. But when you tie for the second-most quality starts in a season, you've certainly earned the right to seek the comfort that would come with such a deal.”
Will he get it, though?
See, Harang isn’t among the group that includes Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields. He also isn’t in the second tier of hurlers hitting free agency, including Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy and Ervin Santana.
True, plenty of decision-makers around MLB are familiar with Harang, but his lack of dominating career peripherals (4.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.357 WHIP), his age (36) and the fact that 2014 marked the first season since 2007 in which he finished with an FIP below 4.14 will factor into what is probably going to be a one-year deal with an option for 2016.
If Harang can repeat this past season’s performance in 2015, however, he will fill out whichever rotation he joins quite nicely.
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7. Josh Johnson, RHP
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Josh Johnson has a chance to regain his reputation in 2015 after the San Diego Padres declined his $4 million club option at the end of October.
Now, Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, noted the “his first choice is to go back to San Diego,” per Dennis Lin from The San Diego Union-Tribune. Lin added that “presumably,” it would be “on a reduced, incentive-laden deal.”
If the Padres don’t see the fit, however, Johnson and his agent are going to have to face the reality that “a reduced, incentive-laden deal” is the best that he will get with any organization.
After all, he didn’t throw a pitch during the 2014 regular season following Tommy John surgery during spring training. And in 2013, he made only 16 starts due to injury, pitching to a 6.20 ERA with a 4.62 FIP and an unhealthy 1.660 WHIP.
All that said, he is a two-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2010 Cy Young voting. For the right price, teams will be lining up to offer Johnson a one-year deal with a modest base, loads of performance-based incentives and a healthy option for 2016.
6. Kyle Kendrick, RHP
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In an article discussing free-agent options for the Philadelphia Phillies, CSNPhilly.com’s Corey Seidman noted that “Kyle Kendrick's 2014 ERA was 20 percent worse than the NL average.”
That sums up the knock on Kendrick. As evidenced by the fact that he’s finished with an FIP below 4.00 only once and is giving up 9.8 hits every nine innings over his career, he is simply too hittable.
What he is, however, is durable.
In three of the past five seasons, he has made at least 30 starts and logged more than 180.0 innings. In the two seasons he did not hit those benchmarks, he still made over 30 appearances, but many were in relief.
All told, Kendrick’s peripherals aren’t anything to get overly excited about, but his ability to eat innings cannot be overlooked. And in the right park, there is a chance that he could have a surprising season in 2015.
Most important for clubs looking at options at the back end of the rotation, he could be had at a relatively modest cost.
5. Colby Lewis, RHP
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Colby Lewis isn’t exactly under the radar from a notoriety standpoint.
Thanks to a hip resurfacing procedure he underwent in 2013 and a nice second half in 2014, Lewis is often mentioned.
Adding to the recognition is the fact that Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels announced that he was in contact with Lewis’ representation before the season ended, with the goal of bringing the right-hander back into the fold next season, per Calvin Watkins from ESPNDallas.com.
Things haven’t worked out between the Rangers and Lewis quite yet, but he will be a steal if he lands with another club.
That is, of course, if he can build off the success he found after the All-Star break this past season. In 13 starts, he logged six quality outings and gave up more than four earned runs only twice. That type of production will play well across MLB.
Either way, it seems as though he has turned the corner. Health will certainly be a key, and his contract will likely contain several performance incentives, but even if he hits them all, the return on investment will be immense.
4. Justin Masterson, RHP
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There is no doubt that Justin Masterson has an amazing amount of talent. He has a solid repertoire, featuring a slider that is devastating to right-handed hitters, and has found success in the past.
Unfortunately for his contractual prospects, he put himself in a hole last season.
First, it was widely reported that Masterson turned down a three-year, $45 million contract extension during spring training. In essence, he set a very high bar regarding perceived worth by declaring that he was worthy of an annual salary typically reserved for elite starters.
Then he went out and posted a 5.88 ERA with a 4.50 FIP and 1.632 WHIP over 28 appearances for the Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals.
What it could come down to for Masterson is which club is going to offer him the most money on a one-year deal. True, that takes the “steal” part out of the conversation, but if a contending club can get All-Star-level production out of the right-hander, yet only have to commit to one season, it has to be considered a great deal.
The bottom line is that his best path toward a long-term contract worth more than the one he turned down is to re-establish his value in 2015. And a return to form from Masterson on a short-term deal is money well spent.
3. Ryan Vogelsong, RHP
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It is no secret that Ryan Vogelsong’s production at the beginning and the end of the 2014 season left much to be desired. In April and March, for example, he compiled a 5.40 ERA and had a .286/.375/.549 slash line against. In September, those respective metrics were 5.53 and .262/.344/.458.
Digging deeper, he had a 3.06 ERA and 1.070 WHIP at home and a 5.10 ERA and 1.524 WHIP on the road. In other words, Vogelsong was all over the place.
Whether those splits carry over into next year is unknown, but because of his overall production the past four seasons (39-35, 3.74 ERA, 3.92 FIP), Vogelsong will have his share of suitors. He will, however, have to wait if he wants to return to the San Francisco Giants.
Per an Associated Press report (via the San Francisco Examiner), “general manager Brian Sabean and his staff have told free-agent starting pitchers Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong that the World Series champions need time to try to strike a deal with [Pablo] Sandoval before turning their attention to the mound or any other position.”
He could strike a deal quickly with another team for the right price, especially if the Giants’ negotiations with Sandoval drag on past the winter meetings.
Either way, Vogelsong would be a nice addition on a contending club at a reasonable price.
2. Edinson Volquez, RHP
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Edinson Volquez did himself a couple of favors this past season.
First, he signed a one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates last December on the advice of Francisco Liriano. “He [Liriano] told me about the pitching coaches. He told me I was going to love it,” Volquez said, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jenn Menendez.
Second, he took the direction of pitching coach Ray Searage to heart and turned in a dominant performance. From ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required):
"From June 23 on, he had a 1.85 ERA, allowing just six homers in 111 2/3 innings. Is some of that due to PNC Park? Absolutely. The great defensive outfield behind him? Unquestionably. The pitcher whisperer, Pirates coach Ray Searage? Of course. But Volquez demonstrated last season that a short-term investment in him can pay off. He could merit a decent two-year deal for a team such as the Mariners or White Sox.
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To be sure, one season does not mean that Volquez can be trusted to repeat his efforts. And thanks to mercurial peripherals over the years and a significant injury history, Volquez has his share of red flags, meaning that the two-year contract Olney mentioned could be on the long end.
1. Chris Young, RHP
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What a season it was for Chris Young.
Not only did the right-hander serve as the No. 3 starter for the American League’s best rotation, going 12-9 with 3.65 ERA in 165.0 innings pitched, but he won the AL Comeback Player of the Year award for his efforts.
Not everything went according to plan, of course.
For the season, Young finished with a 5.02 FIP, which ranked last in MLB among qualified pitchers—by a wide margin. Then there's the fact that his slash line against swelled to .282/.347/.526 and his WHIP surged to 1.509 in the season’s second half, per Baseball-Reference. Seeing as how those metrics were .208/.277/.382 and 1.096, respectively, in the first half, the drop-off in production was significant.
It is those concerns, along with the fact that he will be 36 next May, that will keep his contract down. To be sure, he could end up with a two-year deal, but the salary is going to favor the club that signs him, and it will likely have several performance clauses built in.
If Young pitches like he did this year, however, he will add considerable value. And seeing as how he isn’t going to command an excessive contract, Young has to be viewed as a bargain.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
Follow @MatthewSmithBR
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