Early Predictions for the 2014-2015 Free-Agency All-Bust Team
General managers around baseball would be wise to brush up on their Latin, for they should all keep an old saying, caveat emptor—or "let the buyer beware"—in the back of their minds as the free-agent market, which officially opened Tuesday, gets rolling.
Asking prices are sure to be high, and the pressure will be on for these GMs to land a difference-maker or two on the open market. While some positions offer a plethora of talent, the options at others are slim—and the bidding wars could reach new levels of insanity.
It's with that in mind that we bring you our All-Bust Team of Free Agents.
We aren't talking about these players being busts in the sense that they won't put up some quality numbers and prove to be valuable additions to their new clubs. We're talking about them as busts in terms of failing to meet the expectations—often unrealistic—that come along with the lucrative multiyear deals that they receive.
You'll notice as you look through the squad that there is no designated hitter listed. That's done purposely and for two reasons. First, of the full-time designated hitters available via free agency, the best of the best, Billy Butler and Victor Martinez, will live up to expectations. More importantly, we could reasonably slot any position player on this squad into the DH spot—so we'll just leave it open for now.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at who made the cut.
Catcher: Russell Martin
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Russell Martin isn't going to land the biggest contract this winter, but there may not be another free agent who finds himself in a better position to dictate the terms of his next deal. That's what happens when you're the only starting-caliber player available at your position and are coming off your most productive season at the plate in years.
Martin is going to get paid well, and rightfully so.
Much of his value comes by way of things that don't show up in the box score: controlling the opposition's running game, leadership, pitch framing and the ability to keep an entire pitching staff at ease.
The issue lies in what he'll do with a bat over the course of his next deal.
Only twice in his nine-year career has he hit at least .290 while posting an OPS above .800—in 2007 (.293/.843) and 2014 (.290/.832). In the six years between, he's seen his batting average dip by nearly 50 points (.244) and his OPS by more than 100 points (.718).
Chances are that Martin's numbers going forward will be closer to those than they are to the pair of outstanding campaigns that he's put together. Admittedly, those aren't the worst numbers in the world at catcher, and everything else Martin brings to the table helps make up for them.
But when you consider that he figures to command a deal somewhere between the five-year, $60 million deal Miguel Montero got from the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2012 and Brian McCann's five-year, $85 million pact with the New York Yankees from last winter, folks are going to consider him overpaid.
Predicted Deal: Signs a four-year, $70 million deal with the Chicago Cubs
First Base: Adam LaRoche
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Initially, I was going to slot Michael Cuddyer here, but since I can't see him passing up the $15.3 million qualifying offer that Colorado extended to him, he gets a pass.
Adam LaRoche isn't as lucky.
The 35-year-old has established that he can hit for power on a fairly regular basis, coming off his third consecutive season with at least 20 home runs, the 10th time over his 11-year career that he's cracked that plateau.
He also posted a career-high .362 on-base percentage in 2014, and while he's not a guy who hits for average, LaRoche's power and an OPS that sits consistently around .800 more than make up for it.
But he's not a complete player by any means. He struggles against left-handed pitching (.240 career average) and is a defensive liability, ranking 13th among 23 qualified first basemen in defensive runs saved (minus-seven) and 15th in UZR/150 (minus-1.9) since breaking into the major leagues in 2004.
No matter which team signs him to be the short-term answer at first base—Miami, Pittsburgh and San Diego all seem like potential landing spots—that club is going to be disappointed when it realizes that, at this point in his career, LaRoche might be best suited as part of a platoon at the position.
Predicted Deal: Signs a two-year, $30 million deal with the San Diego Padres
Second Base: Asdrubal Cabrera
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Asdrubal Cabrera may very well sign on as the starting shortstop for a team this winter, given that it's his natural position, but a lack of starting-caliber options at second base and the veteran's willingness to play on the other side of the bag—as he would be were he to stay with the Nationals, as he told James Wagner of The Washington Post in October—make him the top free agent available at the position.
That also means that he's going to land a deal that, quite frankly, he's not worthy of.
Cabrera seemed to be a solid fit with the rest of the Washington Nationals clubhouse after the team acquired him from the Cleveland Indians at the trade deadline. And while advanced metrics weren't kind to his defense at second base (minus-5.3 UZR/150, minus-10 DRS), he was less of a liability there than he was at shortstop.
But as CSN Washington's Mark Zuckerman points out, there's reason to be leery of making a long-term commitment to the former AL All-Star:
"One concern: Cabrera’s potentially declining production. He hit .272 with an average of 20 homers, 80 RBI and a .778 OPS in 2011-12 with Cleveland, making the AL All-Star team each season. The last two seasons, he has hit just .241 with an average of 14 homers, 62 RBI and a .697 OPS. And his range in the field isn’t what it used to be. He’ll only be 29 in 2015, but it’s possible his best days are already behind him.
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While Cabrera showed a more patient approach at the plate with the Nationals, raising his walk rate to 11 percent while cutting his strikeouts down (14.5 percent), he still only managed to hit .229 with a .700 OPS in 49 games for Washington.
That strikeout rate more than doubled in the postseason, with Cabrera fanning five times in 15 at-bats without drawing a walk.
While he's got some pop in his bat, his struggles to hit for average and get on base with any consistency and his shaky defense up the middle make Cabrera a risky proposition on a one-year deal, much more so on a multiyear pact, the latter of which he's going to wind up getting.
Predicted Deal: Re-signs with Washington for three years, $36 million
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Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez
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When he's healthy and at the top of his game, few players, much less shortstops, can put up the kind of numbers Hanley Ramirez can at the plate. On talent alone, he's far and away the best position player available via free agency.
His bat is dynamic enough to make people forget about his defensive shortcomings, which would potentially be far less of an issue were he to slide over to third base. But as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported as the regular season drew to a close, Han Ram is reluctant to move off the position.
Eventually, however, he will. Assuming he stays in Los Angeles, that's likely to come in 2016, when third baseman Juan Uribe is a free agent and shortstop prospect Corey Seager is ready to contribute regularly.
The issue isn't where Ramirez plays on the field, though. It's whether or not he can stay healthy enough for his bat to deliver. Ramirez has missed an average of 55 games a season the last two years due to injury, and he's appeared in more than 130 games only once since 2010.
It's the amount of time he figures to miss over the course of his next contract, which will ultimately limit his offensive production, that will find Ramirez labeled a bust. After all, players don't tend to become more durable as they get older.
Predicted Deal: Re-signs with Los Angeles for four years, $75 million
Third Base: Pablo Sandoval
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Switch-hitters in the prime of their career who offer Gold Glove-caliber defense at a premium position don't hit the open market often, and you can be sure that there will be a ravenous feeding frenzy for their services when they do.
Welcome to what is about to become Pablo Sandoval's world, even without the New York Yankees involved in the bidding for his services, as Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reported the team will not pursue the 28-year-old.
It's not that Sandoval isn't worth a lucrative long-term deal—he is—but he's not going to put up the kind of monster numbers that you'd associate with such a pact.
While he's an imposing physical presence at 5'11", 245 pounds, Sandoval's power is middling. He's hit more than 16 home runs only twice over six full major league seasons and hasn't accomplished the feat since 2011, when he hit 23 home runs and posted a .909 OPS.
But his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since:
| 2011 | .315 | .357 | .909 | 52 (23) | 70 |
| 2012 | .283 | .342 | .789 | 39 (12) | 63 |
| 2013 | .278 | .341 | .758 | 43 (14) | 79 |
| 2014 | .279 | .324 | .739 | 45 (16) | 73 |
Concerns about his weight and whether his body can hold up over the course of a long-term deal can be somewhat alleviated by a move to the American League, where the ability to serve as a designated hitter will spare him from the wear and tear of playing the field on a daily basis.
But for a player who could command more than $20 million a year, Sandoval's numbers will leave much to be desired.
Predicted Deal: Signs a five-year, $110 million deal with the Boston Red Sox
Left Field: Nelson Cruz
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Right-handed power is perhaps the most sought-after commodity in baseball these days, and no player is poised to cash in on that demand more than Nelson Cruz, who is going to be paid like a superstar after leading baseball with 40 home runs in 2014.
Therein lies the problem. Cruz is a good player—not a great one.
His defensive issues weren't as prevalent last year as they had been previously, but that's largely due to the fact that he played only 71 games in the outfield for Baltimore, spending most of his time as the team's primary designated hitter (89 games).
If he's not hitting for power, he's not hitting, as evidenced by his splits for the Orioles last season.
| First Half | .287 | .353 | .570 | .923 | 45 (28) |
| Second Half | .249 | .306 | .463 | .769 | 29 (12) |
Throw in the fact that he doesn't draw walks all that often (7.9 percent of the time for his career) while striking out roughly once every five at-bats, and all of a sudden, Cruz begins to look a whole lot like other all-or-nothing players we've seen recently, guys like Adam Dunn and Curtis Granderson.
Dunn never lived up to the expectations that came along with the four-year, $56 million deal that he signed with the Chicago White Sox in 2010, and Granderson struggled mightily in the first year of his four-year, $60 million deal with the New York Mets last season.
Baltimore, which desperately wants to keep Cruz in the fold, will find the same holds true for Cruz when he returns for his second season in an Orioles uniform, the first year of his shiny, new, lucrative pact.
Predicted Deal: Re-signs with Baltimore for four years, $65 million
Center Field: Colby Rasmus
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Colby Rasmus has all the tools that teams look for in a player, but for whatever the reason, he's been able to put them all together just twice over his six-year career, in 2010 and 2013.
While the other four years of his career have ranged from mediocre to pretty bad, Rasmus has always hit for power (three seasons with 20-plus home runs, none with fewer than 14) and hits free agency just as he should be enjoying his prime at the age of 28.
He's not much of a threat to steal but has enough speed to cover a large swath of ground in center field. His defense took a beating with advanced metrics in 2014 (minus-15.3 UZR/150, minus-seven DRS), but those same metrics graded him as one of the better defensive center fielders in baseball a year earlier.
Like his bat, Rasmus' play in the field has been somewhat erratic.
But the potential remains, and he's going to get another chance to prove he can put it all together. Is there a chance that his third team will be the charm? Sure. But the odds remain stacked strongly in favor of more erratic, up-and-down play over the course of his next deal.
Predicted Deal: Signs a three-year, $27 million deal with the Minnesota Twins
Right Field: Melky Cabrera
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While Melky Cabrera has primarily been a left fielder since 2012, I'm sliding him over to right field for our purposes, as I've chosen to not include a designated hitter on our All-Bust squad.
Now two years removed from his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, Cabrera has proved that he can be a productive member of a team's lineup, hitting .293 with a .340 on-base percentage and .761 OPS since signing with Toronto in 2013.
Like Pablo Sandoval, Cabrera is a switch-hitter in the prime of his career and someone who is sure to garner significant attention from other clubs on the open market. While he's stated, per The Associated Press, that he'd like to stay in Toronto, it's likely that the Blue Jays are going to be outbid for his services given the lack of quality outfield options available.
He's not going to command a Panda-like deal, however.
Some teams will be scared off by his tainted past, while others will look at how the last two years have ended for Cabrera—prematurely due to injury—and question whether he can hold up for a full season and run into the playoffs.
It's true that he's capable of playing all three outfield positions, but he doesn't field any of them particularly well, and his bat isn't dynamic enough to make his defensive shortcomings less of an issue like some of his other free-agent counterparts can.
That said, there are enough teams in need of a productive outfielder to ensure that the Melkman is going to land himself a lucrative long-term deal—one that he's never going to quite live up to.
Predicted Deal: Signs a five-year, $70 million deal with the Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitcher: James Shields
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Most people look at James Shields and see the ace of a rotation. I look at Shields and see a really, really good No. 2 starter.
Of course, my opinion matters little when it comes to the veteran starter's earning power, as he's going to wind up as one of the three highest-paid starting pitchers available via free agency, coming in behind Jon Lester and Max Scherzer.
The big difference between the three? Lester and Scherzer are legitimate aces and perennial contenders for the Cy Young Award. When was the last time you heard Shields' name touted as such? He's received votes for the award only twice, finishing in third place in 2011 and 11th in 2013.
Shields is a quality innings-eater, one who, more often than not, gives his team a chance to win every time that he steps on the mound. But as Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe notes, talent evaluators around the game recognize that Shields isn't the same pitcher he once was:
"Scouts who have seen Shields over his career feel he’s changed from a fastball/changeup pitcher to a fastball/cutter pitcher. Scouts remember the changeup being unhittable and now the cutter has taken over, and at times it is hittable. Still effective, but there is some bewilderment over Shields’s repertoire and where he goes from here after a poor postseason.
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Aside from his miserable showing in the playoffs, which has all but put an end to the whole "Big Game James" mystique, there's reason to be concerned about a long-term deal for a pitcher who will be 33 years old on Opening Day.
Only two other pitchers—Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander—have logged more innings since 2006 than Shields, who has thrown a combined 1,910.1 innings for Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Only three other starters have thrown more pitches than Shields' 29,461 over the same period of time—King Felix, Verlander and Dan Haren.
That's an awful lot of wear and tear on someone's arm, and there's reason to wonder if he can continue to carry such a heavy workload as he creeps closer to his mid-30s.
Between the workload he's carried and the misconception of him as an ace, Shields is as close to a lock to not live up to the expectations that come along with his next deal as any player on our All-Bust team.
Predicted Deal: Signs a five-year, $100 million deal with the Chicago Cubs
Relief Pitcher: Andrew Miller
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The list of teams that would love to stick Andrew Miller in the back end of their bullpen, whether it be as a setup man or to give the 29-year-old his first real crack at closing, is lengthy.
One of the premier setup men in baseball, Miller is coming off the best season of his nine-year career, pitching to a 2.02 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over a combined 62.1 innings for Boston and Baltimore. Miller exhibited phenomenal control and a remarkable ability to miss bats, averaging more than six strikeouts for every walk that he issued.
That he's left-handed only adds to his appeal—and value.
Miller will have Boone Logan to thank for his new deal, as his representatives are going to point to the three-year, $16.5 million deal that Colorado gave the southpaw last winter—and then point to how their client isn't a LOOGY and has better overall numbers than Logan—to make Miller a very wealthy man.
Ultimately, Miller's production will revert back to his career marks as a reliever—a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP—numbers that are more than respectable, but not worth the kind of financial commitment that he's going to receive.
Predicted Deal: Signs a four-year, $23 million deal with the Detroit Tigers
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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