MLB Player Comparisons for Top International Offseason Targets
This year's class of international targets might not have a Masahiro Tanaka or a Jose Abreu, but there is plenty of intriguing talent nonetheless.
Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda is expected to follow in the footsteps of recent pitchers to make the jump from the Japanese League.
Two of the top pitchers in the Korean Baseball Organization, Kwang-hyun Kim and Hyeon-jong Yang, are set to be posted as well, along with one of the league's top hitters in shortstop Jung-ho Kang. Joining them are a handful of Cuban defectors, led by outfielder Yasmany Tomas and infielders Hector Olivera and Andy Ibanez.
Not all international prospects expected to sign with a big league team were included here.
Cuban pitchers Jorge Despaigne and Yasmany Hernandez have garnered some attention, but both appear to be mid-level prospects at best based on the reports available. Fellow Cuban defectors in first baseman Jozzen Cuesta and right-hander Misael Siverio are also available, but they turned in "pedestrian performances" at their showcase, according to Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus.
Probably the most notable absence is Cuban shortstop Yoan Moncada, who has legitimate star potential. The 19-year-old has yet to be declared a free agent, but he has established residence in Guatemala and will do a showcase for MLB teams Nov. 12, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
The switch-hitter has been called "the next Jorge Soler" and is viewed as having more upside than recent Bsoton Red Sox signing Rusney Castillo. All that said, he is still a relatively unknown commodity at this point, so we'll wait until after the showcase to do any speculating on what he could become.
For now, here is a look at seven of the top international offseason targets and reasonable big league comparisons for them based on their physical tools and projectability.
SS Jung-ho Kang
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Player Profile
It's hard to ignore the numbers Jung-ho Kang put up while playing for the Nexon Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization last season. The 27-year-old hit .354/.457/.733 with 36 doubles, 39 home runs and 115 RBI in 497 plate appearances, ranking second in the league in homers and total bases (304) and first in OPS (1.189).
Despite those numbers, he has his skeptics, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe:
"There is still some pushback from scouts who have seen him play on whether he translates to major league baseball. Some of the alarms include the leg kick in his stance that’s very pronounced and lasts deep into his swing. There also has always been skepticism over his ability to play shortstop in the majors.
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No position player has ever made the jump from the KBO to the majors leagues, according to Karl Friedhoff of The Wall Street Journal.
Pro Comparison: Donnie Murphy
"He doesn’t possess any plus tools, and may profile as a utility guy with good instincts and a little bit of pop. That still has value," Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors wrote of Kang.
Remember in 2013 when Donnie Murphy had 11 home runs in 149 at-bats seemingly out of nowhere for the Chicago Cubs? That is the kind of thing Kang could be capable of if everything clicks.
At the other end of the spectrum, Murphy followed that up by hitting .196/.268/.330 with four home runs in 112 at-bats for the Texas Rangers this past season.
The power potential is there, but tapping into it is a different story. Meanwhile, he's capable of playing average defense all over the infield and serving as a useful utility guy.
That appears to be the kind of player Kang profiles as at the big league level.
LHP Kwang-hyun Kim
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Player Profile
Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim was officially posted by the SK Wyverns on Nov. 4, according to a tweet from Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. The 26-year-old made 27 starts this past season, going 13-9 with a 3.33 ERA that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.
He also ranked fifth in the league with 139 strikeouts in 167.2 innings of work, though his command needs some work, as he posted a 4.3 BB/9 mark.
Based on a scouting report from the blog I R Fast back in July 2013, Kim features a high leg kick and throws a four-seam fastball in the 87-92 mph range, a two-seam fastball (86-89 mph), a slider (80-84 mph) and a forkball/changeup (74-81 mph).
His secondary stuff all profiles as average, so his future may be in the bullpen. However, as a left-hander with a fastball that can reach 92 with movement, he should have some interested suitors.
Pro Comparison: Robbie Ross
Kim is lanky at 6'2" and 176 pounds, and while he was a starter in Korea, he could wind up in a long-relief or swingman role in the majors due to his lack of qualify secondary stuff.
Rangers lefty Robbie Ross has a similarly smallish build at 5'11" and 215 pounds, and he too relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it 74.8 percent of the time last year, according to FanGraphs. Ross spent his first two seasons in the majors pitching out of the bullpen before spending some time in the rotation last season, with 12 of his 27 appearances coming as a starter.
2B Andy Ibanez
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Player Profile
A 21-year-old second baseman who has been on scouts' radars for several years now, Andy Ibanez was the youngest player on Team Cuba's roster at the last World Baseball Classic.
The 5'9" and 183-pound infielder hit .267/.377/.435 with more walks (33) than strikeouts (28) over 280 plate appearances last season. He also won a Gold Glove during his rookie year in 2011-12.
Having played just three seasons in Cuba, Ibanez will be subject to international bonus pool restrictions, so that could limit his market. Still, with his upside and a clear shortage of quality second basemen around the league today, there should be a number of teams interested. He is expected to open his pro career at either the High-A or Double-A level.
Pro Comparison: Omar Infante
"Ibanez doesn’t have any premium tools or star upside, but his value lies in being steady in all phases while playing in the middle of the diamond," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote (subscription required).
Omar Infante has made a career out of being a rock-solid second baseman who does not necessarily excel in any one area but provides solid defense, plus plate discipline and good overall offensive tools.
Ibanez still has room to improve, and some time in the minors could do him a lot of good after facing significantly older competition the past several seasons in Cuba.
The ceiling here is probably limited to the Infante neighborhood, but as far as a 21-year-old Cuban defector is concerned, his floor appears to be relatively high as well.
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2B Hector Olivera
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Player Profile
Cuban defector Hector Olivera has yet to be declared a free agent this offseason, but he is expected to be one of the top second base options on the free-agent market if he is. The 29-year-old missed the entire 2012-13 season and the last World Baseball Classic due to thrombosis in his left biceps, leaving his future in doubt.
However, he returned strong in 2013-14 when he hit .316/.412/.474 with seven home runs, 38 walks and 25 strikeouts in 273 appearances for Santiago De Cuba.
"At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote.
Rickie Weeks is the only natural second base option on the free-agent market, with shortstops Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew also options if they shift over, so expect Olivera to see plenty of interest once he officially establishes residency and is named a free agent.
Pro Comparison: Jonathan Schoop (more polished offensively, far less upside)
Given the fact that he will already be 30 years old next season, Olivera does not have the luxury of taking a few years to develop once he reaches the majors. Luckily, his all-around game is already relatively polished, as he has been one of the better players in the Cuban League for several years.
As a big, athletic second baseman with plus offensive tools but limited speed, Orioles rookie Jonathan Schoop is a reasonable comparison.
Olivera should be able to put up better triple-slash numbers than the .209/.244/.354 line Schoop did as a rookie, but he does not have as much raw power. Something in the neighborhood of a .270/.325/.400 line with 10-12 home runs might be a best-case scenario.
LHP Hyeon-jong Yang
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Player Profile
Viewed by many as the top pitcher currently in the KBO, left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang is expected to be posted by the Kia Tigers on Thursday.
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News paints a picture of the kind of pitcher the 26-year-old profiles to be in the majors.
"Yang projects as a No. 3 starter in the big-leagues, though according to a scout that has seen him throw, he could develop into a No. 2. With a fastball that sits between 92-95 mph, Yang throws four pitches - fastball, curveball, slider and changeup - using his slider as his out pitch.
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The 6'0" and 172-pound southpaw won the Choi Dongwon Award this past season, the Korean equivalent of the Cy Young. He was 16-8 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 28 starts, with that ERA sitting roughly a half-run lower than the league average in the hitter-friendly KBO.
Pro Comparison: Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen
Both Yang and Oakland A's southpaw Scott Kazmir feature the same four-pitch repertoire, highlighted by a fastball in the low-90s and a slider as their strikeout pitch. Yang throws a little harder than Kazmir does at this point in his career, so the Tampa Bay Rays version of Kazmir is probably a more accurate comparison.
Wei-Yin Chen is a reasonable comparison as well based on frame and repertoire, and he may be the best-case scenario for Yang.
However, it's worth noting that the Taiwanese-born Chen cut his teeth in the more competitive Japanese League before making his way to the States, so it could take Yang longer to adjust.
RHP Kenta Maeda
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Player Profile
Unless the Orix Buffaloes decide to post 2014 Sawamura Award winner Chihiro Kaneko, which remains to be seen at this point, right-hander Kenta Maeda figures to be the top Japanese pitcher making the jump to the majors this offseason.
The 26-year-old has yet to be officially posted by the Hiroshima Carp this offseason, but the general feeling is that he will be making his way stateside this winter.
Maeda is not on the same level as guys like Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka, but he has a good feel for pitching and terrific command, and he belongs in the second tier of available pitchers this offseason.
He was 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.096 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 187 innings of work this past season and is 82-59 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in his seven pro seasons.
Here is what Ben Badler of Baseball America offered up as a scouting report last December:
"Maeda is a slightly-built 6 feet, 160 pounds and throws around 87-93 mph with good sink and run, though he doesn't get great angle on his fastball. He's a good athlete, which helps him repeat his delivery and thrive when his command, which can be plus at times, is on point. Maeda doesn't have one knockout secondary pitch, but he has a solid-average slider and mixes in a curveball and a changeup as well.
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Under the rules of the new posting system, it will cost a team $20 million to negotiate with Maeda this offseason, and there will likely be more than a few teams willing to pay that price.
Pro Comparison: Mike Leake
Maeda compares to Cincinnati Reds starter Mike Leake on a number of levels. Both are undersized but athletic right-handers, and both feature a four-pitch repertoire with a fastball in the low 90s and no clearly dominant strikeout pitch.
Leake has carved out a nice role in the middle of the Reds rotation, and similar production from Maeda would be a welcome addition for whoever winds up signing him.
OF Yasmany Tomas
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Player Profile
The price for high-end talent out of Cuba continues to climb, from the four-year, $36 million deal Yoenis Cespedes signed to the six-year, $68 million deal Jose Abreu signed and peaking with the seven-year, $72.5 million contract the Red Sox gave Rusney Castillo in August.
Now, the latest big bat to defect has come along in Yasmany Tomas, and there's a good chance he sets a new standard.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a seven-year, $105 million deal at the end of September, noting the cost to sign Tomas would almost certainly fall in the $80-$110 million range.
That's a ton of money, but the 23-year-old has a chance to be a star, and it's very rare that a player of his caliber and age hits the open market.
"A right-handed-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote.
Tomas opened eyes in the last World Baseball Classic, going 6-for-16 with a double and two home runs, and where he winds up signing now that he has officially been declared a free agent remains one of the biggest storylines of the offseason.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been viewed as early front-runners, according to Andy Martino of the Daily News. However, there were as many as six teams showing strong interest in the slugger early on this offseason, according to a tweet from Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Pro Comparison: Now: Dayan Viciedo/Yoenis Cespedes, Future: Jose Abreu, elite-level slugger
It's inevitable that Cuban hitters are compared to their fellow countrymen.
"Scouts on the low-end for Tomas mention Dayan Viciedo as a comparable while more scouts think Yoenis Cespedes is a better offensive comparison, though Cespedes is quicker-twitch athlete with more speed and defense value," Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs wrote.
However, it's important to remember that Tomas is just scratching the surface of what could be one heck of a pro career, and given his age, there is still plenty of room for him to get better.
There were those who didn't know how well Jose Abreu's power would translate to the majors last offseason, and that worked out pretty well.
Tomas' agent, Jay Alou, predicted Rookie of the Year and an All-Star appearance for his client, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, so he's certainly shooting to follow in Abreu's footsteps.
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