NFL Week 10 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

At times, predicting how many combined points a pair of NFL teams will score is much more difficult than nailing the eventual winner.

In a way, over/under line play can feel a bit like fantasy football. When one quarterback has a bad game, bettors who banked on the over certainly hold a grudge—the only difference being they cannot ship the guy away in a fit of rage.

On the flip side, when Ben Roethlisberger goes all Peyton Manning, bettors who bet the under lost but can ride the waves in the coming weeks with the hot hand.

Week 10 is a riddle akin to most other weeks, with a few over/under marks posing quite a challenge. That would be the fun of it, right?

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (Over/Under)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Cleveland at Cincinnati (Thurs., Nov. 6)	CIN -7 (44.5)	CLE	U	Cincinnati is going to win, but not by almost a touchdown in an AFC North clash.
Kansas City at Buffalo	KC -1.5 (41.5)	KC	U	Kansas City's offense finally seems to be turning things around and will move the ball well against the Buffalo defense.
Miami at Detroit	DET -2 (43.5)	DET	O	Miami is on a roll, but Detroit has an elite offense and defense and is at home.
Dallas at Jacksonville	DAL -7.5 (45)	DAL	U	See analysis below.
San Francisco at New Orleans	NO -5 (49)	NO	O	The Saints at home will be able to upend a reeling San Francisco team.
Tennessee at Baltimore	BAL -10 (43.5)	BAL	U	A two-win Tennessee team stands no chance against a surefire contender.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets	PIT -6 (45.5)	PIT	U	See analysis below.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	ATL -1 (45.5)	ATL	O	In a battle of the inept, defer to the team with the better quarterback.
Denver at Oakland	DEN -11 (49)	DEN	O	An angry Denver offense will have few issues blowing away one of the league's worst overall rosters.
St. Louis at Arizona	ARI -7 (43.5)	STL	U	St. Louis has a way of keeping games close and just upended San Francisco.
NY Giants at Seattle	SEA -7.5 (43.5)	SEA	O	Seattle has been no sure thing at home this year but will be against an injured New York team.
Chicago at Green Bay	GB -7.5 (53.5)	GB	O	Green Bay had a week of rest to figure out Chicago's defense, which is scary.
Carolina at Philadelphia (Mon., Nov. 10)	PHI -6 (48)	CAR	U	With the sudden question mark under center for Philadelphia, this one defers to a Carolina team that is getting healthier.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 a.m. ET, Nov. 5.

Highlighting Toughest Over/Under Calls

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Over/Under: 45

USA TODAY Sports

Normally a contest between one of the NFL's best and worst in London makes for an easy decision—an offense such as the one the Dallas Cowboys bring overseas would blow away a shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense while annihilating the over.

This time, perhaps not.

Bettors, Las Vegas and everyone in between are well aware of the injury to Tony Romo, who may or may not suit up for the Cowboys against a lesser opponent.

"(Romo is) following a normal schedule but also listening to his body," Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said, per NFL.com's Conor Orr. "We had a good productive walk through at the hotel today and we anticipate him adopting that schedule that we've had for most of the year."

As FOX Sports 1 showed a few days prior to the team's trip to London, the Cowboys are quite worse off without their leader under center:

This needs little more proof, but for fun, keep in mind that backup Brandon Weeden got the start last week and went 18-of-33 for 183 yards with one touchdown and two picks.

This is tricky territory for bettors indeed, especially when one realizes that the Jacksonville defense is not as horrible as advertised considering the unit gets plenty of pressure and has 27 sacks on the year. 

That said, the offense is pretty inept, having scored more than 20 points just twice this season. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles tossed a pair of touchdowns last week to surpass that mark in a loss, but both passes were horribly off the mark and should have been intercepted.

The safe play is to bet the under. Dallas is likely going to win, especially if a hobbled Romo suits up and provides some offensive balance. But this one places both teams out of their comfort zone and will be quite sloppy.

Prediction: Cowboys 23, Jaguars 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at New York Jets

Over/Under: 45.5

The aforementioned Roethlisberger set an NFL record in his past two games with six passing touchdowns in each, but the trend may be in for a massive halt in Week 10. 

The reason being, of course, an always-stout New York Jets defense led by Rex Ryan.

New York ranks seventh against the rush and 12th against the pass, allowing just 231.0 yards per game through the air. While the team has lost eight in a row and allowed every team except for Oakland to score a minimum of 24 points, Ryan's defense is not one to bank on as a unit that will continue to struggle.

Keep in mind that the Jets are a run-first team that actually ranks No. 3 in the league in that regard with an average of 139.9 yards on the ground. As David Todd of 970 ESPN points out, the Jets have a plan in place that is not conducive to a whole lot of scoring for either side:

Further making this idea to keep Roethlisberger off the field a viable one is key injuries to the Pittsburgh defense, as explained by Peter Schrager of FoxSports.com:

Pittsburgh is really as erratic as it gets in the over/under department, anyway. This is the team that only won 17-9 over Jacksonville and lost 31-10 to Cleveland.

Pair injuries with a horrific matchup, not to mention the simple law of averages that say Big Ben will cool eventually, and the under seems the right way to go as the Steelers squeak one out. 

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jets 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, San Diego, Washington, Houston on bye.