MLB Free Agency: 5 Sleepers Who Will Return Great Value

Every year in MLB free agency, teams overpay for players with the hope that they will become the missing piece to the World Series puzzle. 

Yet it's often the players who are talked about less in free agency who wind up as the prized possessions of the offseason. By not breaking the bank for potentially overrated talent, teams can stay competitive in the short term while maintaining financial control of the organization.

Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval may grab the headlines, but the following players will be key bargains for their future clubs.

Chase Headley

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The former San Diego Padre has yet to replicate his breakout 2012 season, when he hit 31 homers and drove in a league-leading 115 RBI.

But after ending the season with a .768 OPS in New York, it's no wonder why the Yankees are hoping to bring Headley back to the Bronx in 2015, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. 

If the third baseman decides to play ball elsewhere next season, his new team will be receiving a quality player at a reasonable price. 

Out of all potential 2015 free agents, did you know that Headley actually leads that group in WAR over the past three seasons? Obviously a 7.2 mark in 2012 inflates that number, but Headley's 3.6 and 4.4 ratings over the next two seasons prove he's still a capable player. 

Fellow third baseman Pablo Sandoval is expected to the be the big money-earner at his position, but Headley's stats since 2012 fare favorably to those of his counterpart:

Player	Home Runs	OPS	wRC+	WAR
Headley	57	.782	123	15.2
Sandoval	42	.759	115	7.9

Furthermore, Headley's ultimate zone rating per 150 games of 12.8 and 15 defensive runs saved during that three-year span are leaps and bounds better than Sandoval's -0.1 and -6. Defensively, Headley is one of the more elite players in MLB. 

Obviously, Sandoval's playoff success needs to be included in the argument. But with the "Panda" expected to earn a contract in the triple digits, Headley may actually be the better fit at a lower cost. 

Jason Hammel

LM Otero/Associated Press

The strength of the 2015 free-agent class is in its starting pitching. 

Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields will be courted by many different organizations, but there is quality even deeper in the available starters. 

Jason Hammel fits the mold of that solid, middle-of-the-rotation arm that can be had in this market.

Hammel started 29 games for the Cubs and Athletics in 2014, posting a sub-3.50 ERA. 

The 6'6" right-hander was able to finally stay healthy last season, striking out more than eight per game with velocity and a superb slider. 

Here's what Baseball Prospectus had to say about Hammel's strengths. 

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Slider can be a wipeout pitch. Good velocity to the fastball. Can get strikeouts in multiple ways. In the past, sinker was a weapon but may have lost that feel. 

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Hammel's slider has become one of the better strikeout pitches in MLB. In 2014, he threw it more frequently with incredibly positive results:

Year	Pitches	Average Against	K%	Overall ERA
2013	479	.248	28.4	4.97
2014	845	.191	36.1	3.47

At a fair cost, Hammel will bring a veteran presence to his new club. If a team whiffs at the chance to sign a top-tier starter, Hammel could be an important addition for a pitching-needy playoff contender. 

Brandon McCarthy

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Another useful arm on the free-agent market is Brandon McCarthy.

After struggling towards the end of his tenure in Arizona, McCarthy's career was revitalized by the addition of Yankees pinstripes. In 14 starts, the lanky hurler posted a 2.89 ERA. 

Was a change of scenery all McCarthy needed? You can't ignore his rough stretch with the Diamondbacks, but it's not as if the final months of 2014 were the only bright spots in his career. In two seasons in Oakland, he recorded a 3.32 ERA in 2011 and a 3.24 ERA in 2012.  

Brendan Kuty of NJ.com wrote an article back in August that mentioned a change in philosophy for McCarthy upon arrival in the "Big Apple." 

According to McCarthy, Arizona wanted him to trim his pitch selection, which led to the pitcher becoming "sinker happy." When he was traded to the Yankees, they wanted to see him use his cutter more.

The result? An significant increase in K/9 from 5.07 in 2013 to 7.88 in 2014, a career-low fly-ball percentage of 24.7 percent and a career-high ground-ball percentage of 52.6 percent. 

In a recent article on Dodgers Digest, Daniel Brim advocated for the Los Angeles Dodgers to sign McCarthy. As he puts it: 

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However, there is ample evidence that his ERA in Arizona was a fluke. At worst, he's a league average starter, as he has been for most of his career, and he could be even better. That's exactly what the Dodgers need. 

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With McCarthy's injury history, he can be added to a club on a modest salary. If other teams were paying attention to his time in New York, they would be wise to attempt to sign him. 

Russell Martin

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

Over the past few seasons, Russell Martin has emerged as one of the best catchers in MLB. 

So Jon Heyman's report that Martin's services are being pursued by numerous teams throughout the league really shouldn't surprise anyone. 

Martin hit .290 with 11 home runs and 67 RBI for the Pirates in 2014. Even more impressive, his on-base percentage of .402 ranked fourth in all of MLB. Since 2012, only Chase Headley has a higher WAR than Martin out of available free agents. 

The former Yankee also brings one of the most complete defensive toolkits to the game. Here's how some of the game's best catchers compare with Martin in pitch framing, via data from Baseball Prospectus:

Player	Extra Strikes	Total Framing Runs	Passed Balls/Wild Pitches Saved
Russell Martin	154.8	19.3	38
Buster Posey	125.0	16.0	25
Yadier Molina	47.0	3.7	23

Martin also threw out 39 percent of attempting baserunners a season ago.

According to Heyman, Martin is looking for the five-year deal that has become customary for elite free-agent catchers. With little other catching talent in free agency, Martin should receive his desired contract. The team that pays him will receive one of the most underrated players in the game.  

Adam LaRoche

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press

According to James Wagner of The Washington Post, the Washington Nationals declined an option on first baseman Adam LaRoche. 

LaRoche continued to be a competent run producer in 2014, mashing 26 homers and driving in 92 runs. His 119 wRC+ over the past three seasons leads all free-agent first baseman, although that's more of a knock on the other available players at the position. 

So where's the value? 

The lefty slugger continues to cut down his strikeout percentage, while walking at a much higher rate. His on-base percentage was the seventh highest among qualified first baseman. 

David Wiers of FanGraphs attributes these improved on-base numbers to improvements in LaRoche's contact. He is swinging less and making more contact, leading to more advantageous counts as mentioned by Wiers in his article:

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LaRoche's patience, not something new, but never seen at this level, is paying off serious dividends. Getting ahead 1-0 at a clip 6% better than league average is a great place for a hitter to find themselves in. For his career, LaRoche hit for a 140 wRC+ when ahead 1-0 against a 77 wRC+ when in an 0-1 count. 

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He'll be 35 at the start of the season, and LaRoche has developed a niche as a patient and powerful hitter. He can probably be signed to a short-term deal, making him a low-risk/high-reward free agent.