Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Hottest 2014-2015 Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Well that didn't take long.
Less than a week after the conclusion of the World Series, before the Hot Stove League has truly opened its doors for business, we've already seen some big names come off the rumor mill, which is still weeks away from kicking into high gear.
Whether it's as a free-agent signing or a potential trade candidate, there's been no shortage of intriguing rumors and speculation for baseball fans to feast upon. It really is the most wonderful time of the year for fans because, at this point, anything's possible.
But while it's great to dream about our favorite team making a big-time addition this winter, reality is going to set in—sooner, rather than later—and many of those dreams will fade away.
What's real and what's fantasy? What's fact and what's fiction?
That's what we're about to figure out.
Fact: Boston Would Trade Yoenis Cespedes
1 of 5
The most telling thing to come out about Yoenis Cespedes' future in Boston recently wasn't that the team's entire coaching staff "hates him," as a source told Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.
It wasn't his late-season admission that he was unsure about signing an extension with the Red Sox or that he switched representation from the Wasserman Media Group to Jay-Z's Roc Nation Sports, either.
No, the most telling thing came from a familiar face, new Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis—Cespedes' old hitting coach in Oakland—who questioned the Cuban-born slugger's devotion to his craft.
“I think he has the ability to be a great player," Davis told the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. "It’s all up to him whether or not he wants to be that.”
While there's no disputing that Cespedes' right-handed power is a perfect fit in the middle of Boston's lineup, why in the world would the Red Sox consider keeping a player who isn't committed to playing up to the best of his abilities for years to come?
With a plethora of outfield options—albeit none as naturally gifted as the 29-year old—it's not as if Boston is without options. Those options also include making a run at a free-agent outfielder or dipping into a deep, talented farm system to facilitate another trade.
Throw in the clause in Cespedes' deal that prohibits the Red Sox from making him a qualifying offer after next season—robbing the team of the chance to receive draft-pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere—and the demand around the game for right-handed power, and we're left with one conclusion.
Boston will trade Cespedes this winter if the price is right.
Fiction: Baltimore Is Going to Part Ways with Chris Davis
2 of 5
Not only did Chris Davis let his teammates down by selfishly deciding to take a banned substance, Adderall, without permission from MLB—resulting in a 25-game suspension to end the season—but he was a shell of the player who led baseball with 53 home runs and 138 RBI in 2013.
Finishing the year hitting .196 with 26 home runs, 72 RBI and a .704 OPS and due a raise from his $10.35 million salary through arbitration, you couldn't blame Baltimore if it decided to cut ties with him this winter, especially with the emergence of Steve Pearce, who filled in at first base in Davis' absence.
But the reigning AL East Champions aren't going to do that, reports MASN Sports' Steve Melewski, who points to a happy medium between Davis' three years in Baltimore as a reason why:
"In 2013, Davis led the majors in homers, RBIs and extra-base hits. He had nine more homers and 21 more extra-base hits than anyone else in the game. Davis became the third player in major league history to hit at least 50 home runs and 40 doubles in a season, joining Babe Ruth and Albert Belle.
He set O's clubs records for homers and extra-base hits as he batted .286 with 42 doubles, 53 homers, 138 RBIs and a 1.004 OPS.
Davis batting .196 last year was a real surprise. He had batted .276, .270 and .286 in his three previous seasons. Maybe he won't hit anywhere near 53 homers in 2015, but he'll have a season more like 2012, when he batted .270 with 33 homers, 85 RBIs and had an .827 OPS.
"
Is there any guarantee that Davis can return to even his 2012 levels of production? Of course not. But there are no guarantees that Pearce, a career journeyman, can replicate his numbers from a season ago, either.
Keeping Davis around at a salary exceeding $11 million is a gamble, to be sure. But it's a roll of the dice that the Orioles have to take.
Fact: Los Angeles Might Trade Howie Kendrick
3 of 5
If you're looking for perhaps the most under-appreciated player in baseball, you can find him in long-time Los Angeles second baseman Howie Kendrick.
All the nine-year veteran does is produce, both at the plate and in the field.
He hits for average, hitting below .285 only once (.279 in 2010), has some pop in his bat (four seasons with double-digit home runs) and is a threat to run when he gets on base (six seasons with double-digit steals).
A sure-handed defender with plenty of range, even advanced metrics love what he brings to the middle of a team's infield, with only one season with a negative UZR/150 and two seasons with a negative DRS.
So why in the world would the team be looking to move him this winter, as reported by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, who also notes that third baseman David Freese could be on the move?
Money.
The Angels are up against their payroll limits, with MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez estimating that general manager Jerry DiPoto will have roughly $10 million in spending cash this winter after factoring in pre-determined salary increases and raises through arbitration.
That's not a lot of money to improve a pitching staff that, after Jered Weaver, is full of more questions than answers, especially with Garrett Richards' uncertain status for the start of the season.
A quick look at the free-agent market shows that there's plenty of talent available at the hot corner, while teams in need of a second baseman won't find a legitimate starting option waiting to be signed. That makes Kendrick all the more attractive—and valuable—a trade chip for the team to dangle.
Due $9.85 million in the final year of his deal, trading Kendrick could bring back young, controllable, inexpensive talent—freeing up nearly another $10 million for DiPoto to play with.
.png?w=256)
Fiction: Oakland Might Trade Josh Donaldson
4 of 5
When asked about Buster Olney's (subscription required) assertion that third baseman Josh Donaldson would "probably be traded this winter," Oakland kept its response short and sweet.
"That would be stupid," a team official told the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser.
Neither Olney nor the team is wrong in this case.
Olney is correct in noting that Donaldson is quickly becoming an expensive commodity, one that will certainly price himself out of Oakland sooner rather than later. Donaldson, who is headed for arbitration for the first time in his career, is going to get a huge raise from his $500,000 2014 salary this winter.
I predicted a 2015 salary of $7.5 million for the All-Star and perennial MVP candidate last month. At that price (or somewhere in the vicinity), the A's could fit Donaldson into their plans for next season.
While it's true that teams would line up for a chance to add Donaldson's right-handed power and Gold Glove-caliber glove to their rosters, it's not as if there's a lack of quality third base options available this winter, especially if you consider Hanley Ramirez a third baseman at this point in his career.
Teams are more likely to spend money to sign one of the available free agents than they would be to surrender the package of talent that the A's would be asking for in return.
Waiting until next winter, when the two best free-agent third basemen available would be then-37-year-old Aramis Ramirez and then-36-year-old Juan Uribe, would put the A's in a far better position to land the kind of package that they'll be looking for.
Fact: Victor Martinez Will Land a Four-Year Deal
5 of 5
Teams are understandably leery about signing aging players to long-term deals, especially when those players are on the wrong side of 35. So when CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that Victor Martinez would be seeking a four-year deal this winter, many doubted that he'd be able to find one.
Those doubters are about to be proved wrong.
Martinez's 2014 season wasn't just MVP worthy—it's historically significant:
| Victor Martinez (2014) | .335 | .409 | .974 | 32 | 103 |
| Babe Ruth (1930) | .359 | .493 | 1.225 | 49 | 153 |
That's right, folks. Victor Martinez and Babe Ruth are the only players, at the age of 35, to hit at least .330 with 30-plus home runs, 100-plus RBI and have an on-base percentage of at least .400.
Detroit may not be willing to go four years to keep its designated hitter in the fold, Heyman notes, but rest assured that there's a team out there that will.
Maybe it's the Seattle Mariners, a team that could split up its two most dangerous left-handed bats, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, with the switch-hitting Martinez in the middle of the order. Perhaps it's the New York Yankees, a team that seemingly loves to collect aging superstars and designated hitters.
Or perhaps there's a mystery team out there that nobody's looking at as a potential suitor for the five-time All-Star's services.
Regardless of where Martinez signs this winter, he's going to get what he wants—a deal that takes him through his age-40 season.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Want to talk offseason plans for your favorite team? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
.png?w=480)
