NFL Week 10 Picks: Predicting the Winner of All 13 Matchups

NFL picks are a risk-reward gamble based on timing.

Bettors stand to make loads of money on lines early in the week. Las Vegas usually makes a mistake or two before bets swing the lines closer to game day.

In that same vein, though, bettors who wait until the last second have the most up-to-date injury information and plenty of resources to pull from to make the tough calls. 

A mix of the two approaches is probably the safest way for bettors to proceed each week, and some of the late-week advantages can be realized this time of week with in-depth research and injury projections.

Let's do just that below with some early lines.

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cleveland at Cincinnati (Thurs., Nov. 6)	CIN -7	CLE	Cincinnati is going to win, but not by almost a touchdown in an AFC North clash.
Kansas City at Buffalo	KC -1.5	KC	Kansas City's offense finally seems to be turning things around and will move the ball well against the Buffalo defense.
Miami at Detroit	DET -2	DET	See analysis below.
Dallas at Jacksonville	DAL -7.5	DAL	The chance of no Tony Romo is scary, but so is Jacksonville's defense against DeMarco Murray.
San Francisco at New Orleans	NO -4.5	NO	The Saints at home will be able to upend a reeling San Francisco team.
Tennessee at Baltimore	BAL -10	BAL	A two-win Tennessee team stands no chance against a surefire contender.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets	PIT -5	PIT	A quarterback issue in New York will only get worse with Pittsburgh in town.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	TB -1.5	ATL	In a battle of the inept, defer to the team with the better quarterback.
Denver at Oakland	DEN -11	DEN	An angry Denver offense will have few issues blowing away one of the league's worst overall rosters.
St. Louis at Arizona	ARI -7	STL	See analysis below.
NY Giants at Seattle	SEA -7.5	SEA	Seattle has been no sure thing at home this year, but it will be against an injured New York team.
Chicago at Green Bay	GB -7.5	GB	Green Bay had a week of rest to figure out Chicago's defense, which is scary.
Carolina at Philadelphia (Mon., Nov. 10)	PHI -6	CAR	With the sudden question mark under center for Philadelphia, this one defers to a Carolina team that is getting healthier.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Nov. 3.

Odds to Avoid

St. Louis at Arizona (-7)

Little is going to change between now and Sunday that should make bettors want to gobble up this line in favor of either party.

The St. Louis Rams have burned bettors a number of times this year, including playing Philadelphia very close in Week 5, upsetting Seattle at home in Week 7 and upsetting San Francisco at home, too, just last week.

Austin Davis, who completes 64.2 percent of his passes, leads an underrated offense that is slowly transitioning to rookie back Tre Mason, but Davis understands that the defense is what allows the Rams to stay competitive, as captured by the team's Twitter account:

That Rams defense sacked San Francisco a ridiculous eight times last week, which should do plenty to intimidate Bruce Arians' offense and its somewhat immobile quarterback, Carson Palmer.

Then again, Palmer has been on absolute fire as of late since his return from injury:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs. WSH	28	44	250	63.6	2	0
at OAK	22	31	253	71.0	2	1
vs. PHI	20	42	329	47.6	2	0
at DAL	22	34	249	64.7	3	1

Divisional battles are normally pretty difficult to pick and usually cause bettors to shy away. This is especially the case for this matchup. The Rams have played anyone and everyone tough and bring a top-10 pass defense to the table that may fluster the Arizona offense.

On the other hand, Palmer could just as easily stay true to form and use a noisy home-field advantage to blow away a lesser team.

Really, though, bettors should know by now to stay away from the Rams. The most obvious bet of all went awry earlier when the team stole one in Seattle, so another divisional bout seems like the Rams will put up a close fight. Determining the result, though, is too tough a call. Bettors should want to be observers without a stake in this one.

Prediction: Cardinals 21, Rams 18

Miami at Detroit (-2)

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Some refuse to admit it, but the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions are two of the best teams in the NFL at the moment.

The Lions have lost just two games this season, while the offense continues to churn out noteworthy production (it is a top-10 passing attack) despite injuries to Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. Most important, though, is the play of an elite defense that ranks in the top five against the pass and rush.

For the Dolphins, the focus seems to mostly be on the explosive offense, though, as captured by ESPN's James Walker, who provides a note from defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle:

The matchup truly creates a serious battle of wills. The Dolphins rank No. 2 overall in terms of pass defense thanks to the solid work of elite corner Brent Grimes and other individual efforts in the secondary.

This Miami defense also ranks among the top 12 units against the run, but strong performances against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers this season suggest the unit will be able to rise to the challenge that Matthew Stafford and his offense present.

Bettors would be wise to defer toward the home team in this situation (not to mention the team with the better quarterback), but the interconference matchup is still a questionable play at best, hence the small opening line in the first place.

A big play or two from Megatron may swing things in the home team's favor, but easier situations certainly exist amongst the 13 options in Week 10.

Prediction: Lions 24, Dolphins 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, San Diego, Washington and Houston on bye.