Fantasy Baseball 2015: Early Post-World Series Top 150 Rankings
Winter is coming, which means one thing for sports fans: It’s fantasy baseball time.
Wait, you’re still focused on earning a playoff spot for your fake football squad? Please. Basketball and hockey have caught your fancy to fill these cold, bleak days? Hogwash. It’s never too early to fire up rankings for the upcoming MLB season.
After a month away from filing lineups and checking stats on a daily basis, avid gamers are ready to get busy again. Most drafters will wait a while more before answering the tough questions—and there are plenty in a player pool full of fallen stars returning from injuries or down years—but why not get a head start?
Get your mind back in the game with a look at next year’s top 150 fantasy stars. Before getting started, here are some general notes to consider:
- Rankings are designed for a rotisserie mixed league with standard scoring categories: batting average, runs scored, RBI, home runs and stolen bases for hitters; wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and saves for pitchers.
- These rankings also assume a standard roster size. This is especially important for those brave souls in two-catcher leagues, as this order is tailored to an average-sized league where each club starts just one backstop.
- In order to hold eligibility at a position, a hitter must have logged 15 games at that position. This is important to note in some cases, as Chris Carter is listed as a designed hitter, having played 14 games at first.
- Free agents are ranked as if they’ll stay put or move somewhere with a neutral impact on their fantasy value. If Victor Martinez signs with the San Diego Padres—not a likely scenario—his stock obviously plummets.
- It is still super early, so there are still massive changes to be made after offseason moves and more time to research.
Let's get down to business.
Honorable Mention Team
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So many useful players missed the cut. In fact, this team constructed out of honorable mentions doesn’t look half bad.
All-Honorable Mention Team
C: Travis d'Arnaud, NYM
1B: Adam LaRoche, FA
2B: Neil Walker, PIT
3B: Aramis Ramirez, MIL
SS: J.J. Hardy, BAL
CI: Brandon Moss, OAK
MI: Xander Bogaerts, BOS
OF: Wil Myers, TB
OF: Leonys Martin, TEX
OF: Coco Crisp, OAK
OF: Adam Eaton, CHW
OF: Gregory Polanco, PIT
SP: Anibal Sanchez, DET
SP: Homer Bailey, CIN
SP: Andrew Cashner, SD
SP: Zack Wheeler, NYM
SP: Drew Smyly, TB
RP: Fernando Rodney, SEA
RP: Delin Betances, NYY
Nos. 150-141
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150. Jorge Soler, OF, CHC: One of the Chicago Cubs’ many premium hitting prospects, Soler showed some serious pop in a short major league stint, accumulating a .573 slugging percentage through 97 plate appearances. The successful small sample size will probably make the 22-year-old a pricey gambit in redraft leagues.
149. Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL: This won’t be the first time you read this through these rankings: Don’t pay for a career year. Blackmon fell back down to earth after an otherworldly first half and didn’t display this much power or speed in the minors.
148. Jose Fernandez, SP, MIA: At some point, half a season of Fernandez is enticing enough to stash the Cuban ace. Before suffering a season-ending elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, he was well on his way to becoming a top-five starter.
147. Alex Rios, OF, FA: Despite hitting a comparable amount of fly balls to career norms, Rios hit just four home runs in 2014, punching a one-way ticket out of Texas. Having stolen 82 bases over the past three years, he holds some sneaky bounce-back appeal if he finds the right landing spot in free agency.
146. Doug Fister, SP, WAS: His stats with the Washington Nationals are dangerously misleading, as Fister notched a 2.41 ERA despite his 3.93 FIP, a truer measure of a pitcher's individual acumen. Fantasy gamers won’t make much leeway with a 5.38 K/9 rate either. He’s going to get drafted too early in most leagues next year.
145. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, PHI: His velocity continues to evaporate, but Papelbon remained effective by spinning a 2.04 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Since he was fortunate to have relinquished only two home runs, don’t treat him as a top-10 fantasy closer anymore.
144. Collin McHugh, SP, HOU: A fringe prospect who looked to amount to nothing more than organizational depth, McHugh instead stamped a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 157 strikeouts and 41 walks through 154.2 innings. Some healthy skepticism keeps him this low, but those numbers are befitting an ace.
143. Javier Baez, 2B/SS, CHC: Baez may hit 30 home runs in his first full season. He also may hit .200 with his unfathomable 41.5 strikeout percentage. Take the risk if you dare, but don’t surprised if he’s in the minors by June.
142. Joe Mauer, 1B, MIN: Catcher eligibility can no longer defend Mauer from his lack of power. Why bother with a first baseman whose upside is hitting .300 with 10 homers and 80 RBI/runs scored?
141. Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC: His postseason success reminded everyone what Hosmer can do at his best. At some point, however, the tantalizing first baseman needs to string together some consistent production over a full season.
Nos. 140-131
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140. Wilin Rosario, C, COL: Rosario is still a catcher playing half of his games inside Coors Field, where he hit .343 last season. He left a letdown year with a positive improvement, slashing his strikeout rate 17.1 percent.
139. Ben Revere, OF, PHI: A major boom for someone needing steals, Revere is also a colossal liability in the power department who doesn't score nearly enough runs due to his dreadful plate discipline. Whether a drafter should target Revere depends entirely on his or her specific roster.
138. Jhonny Peralta, SS, STL: Among shortstops, only Troy Tulowtizki, Hanley Ramirez and Danny Santana (a product of a crazy .405 BABIP) finished with a better weighted runs created plus (wRC+) than Peralta’s 120. Power is hard to find elsewhere at shortstop.
137. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX: Right after banking a massive deal with the Texas Rangers, Choo proceeded to hit .242 with a measly three stolen bases during an injury-shortened year. Since he generated a 20/20 season in 2013 and plays in a hitting-friendly park, the 32-year-old shouldn’t fall off the map completely.
136. Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA: Even if 2014 represents Ozuna’s ceiling, the outfielder boasts more than enough power to deliver 20 homers. Those guys don’t grow on trees anymore.
135. Mookie Betts, OF, BOS: Prepare for Betts to catch fire as 2015’s trendy sleeper pick. In 52 games, he churned out an impressive .291/.368/.444 slash line with five home runs and seven steals. Via FanGraphs, the Steamer projection model is predicting the 22-year-old to hit .291 with 13 homers and 29 steals during his first full MLB campaign.
134. Sonny Gray, SP, OAK: A huge breakout candidate entering his first full season, Gray collected a 3.08 ERA through 219 innings. So what’s the problem? His K/9 rate dropped from 9.42 to 7.52 under a compounded sample size.
133. Cody Allen, RP, CLE: In 2014, Allen did essentially the same thing he did in 2013. Only this time, it came with saves attached to his name. As long as he keeps pitching with saves attached to his name, he’s a high-end No. 2 closer or low-end No. 1 for those who like to draft a patchwork bullpen.
132. Glen Perkns, RP, MIN: Perkins unraveled to close out the season, allowing eight runs through his final 5.1 innings. As long as his elbow is fine heading into spring, don’t ignore the otherwise trustworthy closer for a poor stretch that would have gone less noticed if it happened in June.
131. Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, ARI: That 30-homer power is still there. Yes, it will come with a poor average, but chase power and speed when in doubt.
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Nos. 130-121
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130. Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF: Seems cruel for someone who just hit .315 with 13 homers and 18 RBI, but Harrison is a free-swinging 27-year-old who never wielded this much power in the minors. Don’t pay for the career year, but his multiposition eligibility is nice in deeper leagues if he falls.
129. Jake McGee, RP, TB: If the Tampa Bay Rays commit to McGee as the full-time closer, catapult him up the rankings. His fantasy value may be saved by manager’s Joe Maddon’s departure, as the progressive skipper was planning to pitch to the situation rather than setting stringent roles, which is great for real baseball but terrible for fake baseball.
128. Lance Lynn, SP, STL: Lynn once again quietly manufactured a terrific season, brandishing a 2.74 ERA to decrease his career mark to 3.46. One of the game's most underappreciated hurlers makes for an ideal mid-level fantasy asset.
127. Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM: Hardly the flashiest pick, Murphy will hit around .290, steal a dozen bases, hit 10 home runs if you’re lucky and secure over 600 plate appearances as a durable starter. Players can do worse at second base.
126. Salvador Perez, C, KC: There’s legitimate reason to worry about Perez's dip in batting average. The catcher swung at 44.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone in 2014, up from 2013’s 37.5 percent.
125. Phil Hughes, SP, MIN: In 32 starts, Hughes issued 16 walks. His 11.63 K/BB ratio is the best mark ever cemented by a starter.
124. Matt Adams, 1B, STL: He faded hard down the stretch, hitting .235 after the All-Star break, and Adams can’t hit lefties for a lick. There’s potential for a 25-homer season, but we’ve yet to see 20 from the big first baseman.
123. Michael Wacha, SP, STL: One of the most targeted young hurlers last year, Wacha is now just one in a sea of appetizing starters. He shoudn’t fall too much out of favor with a 3.20 ERA though.
122. Steve Cishek, RP, MIA: Will he maintain his inflated 11.57 K/9 rate? Probably not, but he holds a career 9.92 K/9 rate and 2.65 ERA, firmly establishing himself as a safe closer with no jeopardy of losing his job.
121. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, FA: Turns out fantasy managers don’t get credit for Sandoval's constant October success. Instead, they were left with a guy who hasn’t hit over .285 with more than 16 homers since 2011.
Nos. 120-111
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120. Evan Gattis, C/OF, ATL: Dear Atlanta Braves, please play Evan Gattis more. Sincerely, fantasy baseball managers who would love to procure 25-30 home runs from the catcher slot.
119. Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS: His 3.57 ERA represents his worst measure since 2009, but Gonzalez corralled a career-best 3.18 walk rate in the process. Usually a desired commodity, the lefty has a great chance of slipping through the cracks, like some probably feel he did with this slotting.
118. Koji Uehara, RP, BOS: Although he lost the closer’s job late in the season, Uehara should resume his old role after signing a two-year extension with the Boston Red Sox. How can anyone stay mad at a pitcher with a 10.00 K/BB ratio?
117. Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI: As he's set to turn 36 later in November, it’s difficult to expect another 28 steals from Rollins. Luckily for him, he plays shortstop, where you’ll take what you can get and like it.
116. J.D. Martinez, OF, DET: If his .315/.358/.553 slash line is close to the real thing, Martinez this low is a steal. The .389 BABIP, however, is why drafters should treat him with a grain of salt.
115. Gerrit Cole, SP, PIT: A 24-year-old future ace who notched a 3.23 FIP and strikeout per inning finds himself on the wrong end of the top 100. That’s how insanely deep starting pitcher is this year. If healthy, Cole will have the breakout expected from him in 2014.
114. Kolten Wong, 2B, STL: A second baseman who compiles 12 homers and 20 steals through 113 games is worth attention for roto managers. The .292 on-base percentage, however, keeps Wong from vaulting higher up the ranks.
113. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL: Regarded as an upper-echelon closer last spring, Rosenthal lost that status with a ghastly 5.37 BB/9 rate. His superb stuff and gaudy strikeout numbers keep him this high, but he’s an ultimate high-risk, high-reward choice.
112. James Shields, SP, KC: Dating back to 2011, no starter has logged more innings than Shields’ 932.2, and he added 25 ineffective postseason frames to that tally. As his strikeout rate continues to descend, Shields is a ticking time bomb for whichever team gives him a big new deal this winter.
111. Yan Gomes, C, CLE: Over the past two seasons, Gomes has generated slugging percentages of .481 and .472. His 24.0 line-drive percentage gives him a chance to maintain a solid average despite poor strikeout and walk tallies.
Nos. 110-101
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110. Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM: In his rookie season, mid-level prospect deGrom destroyed the competition, generating a 2.69 ERA, 144 strikeouts and 43 walks through 140.1 innings. He defied reasonable expectations based on his minor league background, but he also got better as the season progressed, closing out his final three starts with 32 punchouts.
109. Brett Gardner, OF, NYY: This is sacrilege to say, but the New York Yankees offense receives a significant boost now that the Yankees no longer face pressure to slot a poorly aging Derek Jeter atop the batting order. Gardner’s 17 homers aren’t for real, but a 10/20 season with 85 runs would make him a solid choice.
108. Alex Wood, SP, ATL: Despite posting a 2.78 ERA and 8.91 K/9 rate, Wood doesn’t receive nearly enough attention as a budding ace. His 2015 forecast is even brighter considering he got roughed up for eight runs during a misguided 15.1-inning stint in the bullpen.
107. Yadier Molina, C, STL: Overvalued after a 22-homer power surge he could not repeat, Molina may now become affordable again after an injury-riddled 2014. If he has another .300 average left in him, it won’t matter that he’ll only hit 10-12 home runs.
106. Ben Zobrist: 2B/SS/OF, TB: A .272 hitter with 10 homers and steals apiece is hardly the most appetizing choice, but Zobrist is a durable everyday player with eligibility at second base and shortstop. He’s also acquired double-digit homers and steals in all six season as a starter.
105. Mark Melancon, RP, PIT: Once Jason Grilli struggled and got shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels, Melancon had a clear path to reinsert his dominance into the ninth inning. With a 1.90 ERA and one strikeout per inning, he's a great target for those unwilling to splurge on a top-tier reliever.
104. Matt Carpenter, 3B, STL: Everyone’s regressions fears were realized, but Carpenter still scored 99 runs due to his keen batting eye. He won’t hit .318 again, but he may approach .290-.300.
103. Hyun Jin-Ryu, SP, LAD: During his second MLB season, Ryu upped his K/9 rate by a full punchout and slashed his BB/9 rate down to 1.72. Since he’s not a flamethrower with ace upside, Ryu will hang around until the middle rounds as an affordable No. 3 starter.
102. Lucas Duda, 1B, NYM: Finally handed a chance at an everyday role for a full season, Duda raked 30 homers. If he maintains his lower strikeout and higher walk rates, he can also hit .250 again in the middle of the New York Mets order.
101. Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE: Corey Kluber’s magic rubbed off on Carrasco, who generated a 1.72 ERA and 9.84 K/9 rate after the All-Star break. Any starter who finishes the season with a 2.44 FIP is a friend of mine and a fantasy target for everyone else.
Nos. 100-91
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100. Brian McCann, C, NYY: After hitting .230 in 2012, McCann hiked his average to .256 the following year. If he continues that pattern after enduring a .232 clip in 2014, which he should given his MLB-low .231 BABIP, he’s the premier catcher everyone hoped for when he joined the Yankees.
99. Jake Arrieta, SP, CHC: Once a highly touted prospect, Arrieta toiled through the majors for years before everything clicked this year with the Cubs. It shows how deep pitching is that a starter with a 2.26 FIP barely cracks the top 100.
98. Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX: Andrus averaged 90 runs scored per season from 2010-13, but he crossed home just 72 times in 2014 due to an onslaught of injuries to the Texas Rangers. If the supporting cast rebounds, he at least again becomes a two-category contributor at shortstop.
97. Cliff Lee, SP, PHI: His velocity waned and his strikeouts dropped, but Lee still amassed a 2.96 FIP before his season ended with an elbow injury. He may become the next cautionary tale of an overworked veteran hurler flaming out, but drafters must balance that downside with his Cy Young repertoire.
96. Chris Davis, 1B, BAL: This is simultaneously too low for a slugger who pounded 53 homers in 2013 and too high for a troubled first baseman who batted .196 in 2014. If he can returns to 2012 form (.270, 33 HRs), it's worth the gamble.
95. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NYY: Talk about a strong debut. While Tanaka didn’t last the full season, he shined during 136.1 innings, submitting a 2.77 ERA with 141 strikeouts and 21 walks. The expensive signee had no trouble adjusting to Yankee Stadium, authoring a 2.07 ERA at his new home.
94. Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA: A trendy sleeper pick last spring, Calhoun rewarded that trust with 17 long balls and 90 runs scored. To fully deliver on that hype, a few more steals would be nice.
93. Alexei Ramirez, SS, CHW: Don’t bank on 15 more homers, but Ramirez will still register 20 steals. In the past four seasons, he has played exactly 158 gamed every time.
92. Manny Machado, 3B, BAL: All those doubles from 2013 turned into homers, as Machado came two homers shy of matching those 14 long balls in half the plate appearances. By the way, he’s still only 22.
91. Tyson Ross, SP, SD: Hey, as long as he’s still pitching for the San Diego Padres. In the helpful Petco Park, Ross twirled a 1.88 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
Nos. 90-81
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90. Chris Carter, DH, HOU: An abundance of home runs with an atrocious average. People know what they’re signing up for with Carter.
89. Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN: This is a case of not paying for the career year, as Mesoraco benefited from a 20.5 percent HR/FB ratio that will be all but impossible to sustain. Consider him lucky to hit .273 again given his 23.4 strikeout percentage.
88. Jeff Samardzija, SP, OAK: Samardzija sacrificed some strikeouts, but it was worth it to post a sensational 1.76 BB/9 rate, which paved the way for a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Showing the stupidity of wins, he received no victories from 10 starts, during which he allowed two or fewer runs through at least seven innings.
87. David Robertson, RP, FA: It goes without saying that Robertson needs to sign with a team where he’ll maintain his closer job description. Given his 13.43 K/9 rate, he’d represent an upgrade for a majority of teams.
86. Julio Teheran, SP, ATL: With so many sizzling pitchers flooding baseball right now, it’s hard to get overly exciting about Teheran’s 7.57 K/9 rate, which is matched by Bud Norris and Travis Wood.
85. Sean Doolittle, RP, OAK: Eighty-nine strikeouts. Eight walks. That mind-bending combination makes Doolittle one of the best ninth-inning mercenaries in town.
84. Jayson Werth, OF, WAS: With an on-base percentage surpassing .390 for two straight years, Werth remains an attractive option despite hitting just 16 home runs in 629 plate appearances. A simple uptick to 20 would secure his placement as a viable starting outfielder.
83. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS: With the highest line-drive rate of his career (23.9 percent), Pedroia managed to hit a career-low .278 with seven deep flies and six steals. A return to 2013 (.301, 9 HRs, 17 SBs) is all drafters need to invest while the 31-year-old’s stock diminishes.
82. Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, SEA: His ERA rose from 2.66 to 3.52, but Iwakuma emphatically proved he belongs as a top fantasy option anyway. During his third MLB season, the Japanese import issued a microscopic 1.06 BB/9 rate and a 3.25 FIP that tops 2013’s 3.44 measure.
81. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL: Those who drafted Heyward in hopes of a power incline instead received 20 stolen bases, although most would have preferred the power. He’s a 25-year-old who maintained a similar fly-ball rate (35.6 percent) to previous years, so anyone who gives up could still miss something big.
Nos. 80-71
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80. Starlin Castro, SS, CHC: Repairing 2013’s .245 average to .292 during a bounce-back campaign, Castro established that down year as an outlier over an otherwise steady five years. In the past two years, however, he has stolen just 13 bases in 23 tries.
79. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN: Bruce entered 2014 as one of MLB’s most consistent power sources, rattling off 30 home runs in three years running. Don’t expect another .217, 18-homer season, but he’ll need to deflate his 45.2 ground-ball percentage to orchestrate a full bounce-back effort.
78. Carlos Santana, 1B/3B, CLE: Know your league’s eligibility requirements. Having played just 11 games behind the plate in 2014, Santana will lose his catcher labeling in some formats, considerably dashing his fantasy appeal.
77. Alex Gordon, OF, KC: Compared to the groundbreaking numbers expected from Gordon upon his big-league ascendance, his production is subdued. He won’t hit .300, crank out 30 home runs or swipe 20 bags. But at the end of the day, he gives owners a little bit of everything, averaging 19 homers and 12 steals per season since 2011.
76. Jonathan Lucroy, C/1B, MIL: Although still the No. 2 catcher, Lucroy looked poised to seize a much higher overall ranking before fading down the stretch to finish with 13 homers. That makes his fantasy value too average-dependent and not enough of a standout to reach for in one-catcher leagues.
75. Christian Yelich, MIA, OF: As someone who routinely tallied double-digit homers in the minors, Christian Yelich could take his fantasy game to another level with a power surge during his age-23 seasons. Even if he doesn’t, his plus plate presence and base-stealing prowess make him an enticing choice.
74. Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD: A .350 BABIP had a lot to do with Jansen’s 2.76 ERA bulging way above his 1.91 FIP. Look for past norms to win out, maintaining his standing as a top-tier closer.
73. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN: The master of plate discipline bottomed out for fantasy owners, hitting .255 with six homers despite a gaudy .390 on-base percentage. While it’s time to accept that Votto isn’t a five-by-five superstar, his injury-plagued season may plummet his value low enough to make him a bargain again.
72. Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN: Pop-ups remain Dozier’s biggest nemesis, as his 15.8 infield fly rate curtailed the chances of him producing a serviceable average. Nobody will mind if he goes 23/21 again with 112 runs, but he’ll need to maintain a stellar 12.6 percent walk rate while proving a late-season lapse was flukier than the early-season surge.
71. Matt Harvey, SP, NYM: Remember him? Before the universe cruelly stripped us of Harvey, he registered a 2.27 ERA and 23.2 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage in 2013. If he returns as the same guy, drafters will get a top-10 ace at a discount.
Nos. 70-61
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70. Greg Holland, RP, KC: Fantasy gamers didn’t need October to receive proof of Holland’s ninth-inning dominance. Over the past two years, the flamethrower has registered a 1.32 ERA, 193 strikeouts and 93 saves through 129.1 innings.
69. Todd Frazier, 1B/3B, CIN: He never hit 20 home runs or stole 10 bases in the majors, so trusting Frazier’s 29/20 breakout is dangerous. ESPN’s home run tracker classified a dozen of those base-clearers as “just enough” home runs.
68. Corey Dickerson, OF, COL: ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft ranked Dickerson No. 33, ahead of Ryan Braun, Michael Brantley and teammate Carlos Gonzalez. If that’s close to the actual price tag, step aside and let someone else overpay.
67. Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL: Before an illness cost him the final two weeks of the season, Arenado was making his case to become a top-five fantasy third baseman. He flexed some serious muscle after the break, slugging .550 with 12 home runs, and his Gold Glove defense makes him a mainstay in a Colorado lineup that plays half of its games in Coors Field.
66. Alex Cobb, SP, TB: If we can just get a full season out of Cobb, look out. In 2013 and 2014, he has notched an ERA below 3.00, a K/9 above 8.00, a BB/9 below 3.00 and a ground-ball percentage over 55 percent. Tampa Bay’s new ace embraced the role in David Price’s absence, hurling a 1.94 ERA over the final two months.
65. Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA: Seager keeps trading speed for power, swiping two fewer bags but hitting three more balls over the fence. Robinson Cano’s arrival also helped him springboard his RBI total from 69 to 96.
64. Prince Fielder, 1B, TEX: Before neck surgery ended his season prematurely, Fielder netted a troubling .360 slugging percentage. The season before, he produced career lows in slugging (.457) and home runs (25). Make sure he comes at enough of a value before rolling the dice on redemption.
63. Matt Holliday, OF, STL: Is it time to break the tradition of happily spending a fourth- or fifth-round pick on Holliday? He made his case for one more run with a strong second half, extending his streak of 20-homer seasons to nine with a late power surge. He’ll turn 35 before Opening Day, so proceed with some caution.
62. Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN: Chapman didn’t begin his season until May 11, yet he still led all closers with 106 strikeouts. If you’re going to invest on a premium closer, make sure it’s one who offers a distinct strikeout boost.
61. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, BOS: While Cespedes steered closer to 2013’s letdown than 2012’s breakout, he found some middle ground by hitting .260/.301/450. He’s a solid source of 20-25 home runs who kept his strikeouts in check after an erratic sophomore slump.
Nos. 60-51
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60. Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL: Since joining Atlanta in 2010, Kimbrel has a 1.43 ERA and 14.83 K/9 rate. If he keeps that up throughout a long career, he’ll challenge Mariano Rivera’s throne as the best closer ever.
59. Dee Gordon, 2B/SS, LAD: If Gordon’s .346 BABIP falls, he becomes nothing more than a pure speedster. Those are easier to dumpster-dive for than power threats. In fact, Gordon’s 2014 emergence is a prime example of that.
58. Jon Lester, SP, FA: Lester abruptly jumped from being just another guy to dominating as a lockdown ace, pitching more than a full run under his career 3.58 ERA at 2.46. With regression a distinct possibility, the free agent can use a pitching-friendly environment.
57. Starling Marte, OF, PIT: Can Marte maintain such high BABIPs (.363 in 2013, .374 in 2014) over his career? Giving a high propensity to strike out with few adjacent walks, he’ll need to in order to keep reaching base so frequently.
56. Johnny Cueto, SP, CIN: 2.25 ERA. Twenty wins, 242 strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA. Great, but how much did a .238 BABIP have to do with that breakout? This is still a pitcher with a career 3.87 FIP, so Cueto still doesn’t crack the top 10 starters.
55. George Springer, OF, HOU: During his rookie year, George Springer averaged one home run per 17.25 at-bats. Nelson Cruz, who smacked a league-leading 40 dingers, produced one per every 16.95 at-bats. Springer's 33.0 strikeout percentage portends another terrible average, but he’s a very real 30-20 threat in his first full season.
54. Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA: It wasn’t MVP Pujols, but a .272/.324/.466 hitter with 28 homers, 105 RBI and 89 runs made plenty of owners happy. Just beware of his career-low 6.9 percent walk rate when somebody overpays for past accomplishments.
53. Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET: While he's no longer the imposing 30/30 threat of years past, Kinsler is now a steady 15/15 option at a position where many other stalwarts are coming off down years. A .307 on-base percentage stymied by a career-low 4.0 walk percentage sparks the veteran’s biggest concern.
52. David Wright, 3B, NYM: Will the price be right for Wright in 2015? Was that pun awful? The answer to both questions is yes, as Wright played with an injured shoulder through the season while suffering from a 5.1 percent HR/FB rate well below his career clip of 13 percent.
51. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, WAS: The strikeouts finally arrived for Zimmermann, who accumulated a career-high 182 punchouts alongside a pristine 2.66 ERA. Combine that with a BB/9 rate that has strayed below 2.00 in each of the past four seasons, and he’s well worth some attention for drafters unwilling to pay for a premium hurler.
Nos. 50-41
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50. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD: He’s boring compared to the other hotshot first basemen, but Gonzalez gets the job done. He’s also durable, playing at least 156 games in every season since 2006.
49. Cole Hamels, SP, PHI: A trade from Philadelphia would enhance Hamels’ value, as he produced a 1.82 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park in 2014. Having thrown 200 or more frames for five straight years, the lefty is one of the most durable aces out there.
48. David Ortiz, DH, BOS: Even with the rapid average decline, Big Papi hit his worth, smacking 35 long balls alongside 104 RBI. Because of his age and lack of position, Ortiz will once again come at a bargain.
47. Zack Greinke, SP, LAD: Playing second fiddle to Clayton Kershaw, Greinke netted a career-best 11.6 swinging strikes percentage and his lowest walk rate (1.91 BB/9) since his rookie season 10 years ago. He’s sporting a 2.68 ERA since joining the Dodgers.
46. Hunter Pence, OF, SF: Pence has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past seven seasons, stealing more than 10 bases in five of those years. As long as his World Series production doesn’t inflate his value too much, Pence is a comforting choice past the first few rounds.
45. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE: Owners don’t need Kipnis to match his .284 average from 2013, but at least split the difference with 2014’s .240 mark. A rise in his 4.8 HR/FB percentage should send his home run total safely into double digits again.
44. Adam Wainwright, SP, STL: There’s too many exceptional aces out there to not dock Wainwright some points for his 7.10 K/9 ratio, the ace’s lowest number since 2009. This is a case of exiting the bandwagon early in fear of riding it while the tires fall off.
43. Nelson Cruz, OF, FA: Cruz has always just needed health to deliver such noteworthy power, but the 34-year-old has now played two full seasons over his career. A worthwhile mid-round gamble last season, MLB’s leader in home runs won’t come cheaply in 2015.
42. Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK: Most drafters viewed Donaldson’s 2013 breakout as a fluke, and they were half right. The .301 average doesn’t represent his abilities as a hitter with heavy ground-ball tendencies, but he actually increased his home run output to 29. The fact that those dingers came with a .255 average doesn’t diminish his placement as a top-five option at the hot corner.
41. Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF: His postseason heroics ascend Bumgarner to deity status, and that’s terrible news for his fantasy value. Memories of his October dominance will bump his draft stock too high for comfort, and while his brave workload draws praise now, his 270 total innings pitched should cause concern in the spring.
Nos. 40-31
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40. Ryan Braun, OF, MIL: The fading power will draw headlines after his 2013 suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but Ryan Braun also hit a career-low .266 with his lowest contact rate (78.6 percent) since his rookie season. A recovered right hand should yield a respectable rise in that average, making Braun a sneaky bounce-back option.
39. Jose Reyes, SS, TOR: Although rarely healthy for a full season, Reyes always seems to deliver fantasy results anyway. No longer a threat to lead the league in steals, the shortstop is still running, converting 30 of 32 steal attempts in 2014.
38. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL: Despite missing time with injuries every year, CarGo had a streak of four 20/20 seasons snapped during a disastrous 2014, where he played just 70 games due to a knee injury. During that time, he hit .160 away from Coors Field.
37. Matt Kemp, OF, LAD: Nobody bolstered his 2015 fantasy value in the second half more than Kemp, who flashed his former superstar prowess by hitting .309/.365/.606 with 17 home runs after the Midsummer Classic. Yet his early production can’t be ignored, so 25 more homers is a fairer expectation than him pushing 40 again.
36. Buster Posey, C/1B, SF: Hitting .354/.403/.575 after the All-Star break cements Posey’s standing as the undisputed No. 1 catcher. There’s no argument here, which means he’ll cost a pretty penny in all leagues, especially after adding another championship to his mantle.
35. Yu Darvish, SP, TEX: Darvish’s elbow that cost him the final two months of 2014 is the only concern here. The Japanese star owns a ridiculous 11.22 K/9 rate since taking his talents to the United States in 2012, and his command has developed in each season.
34. Bryce Harper, OF, WAS: Make it two years now that everyone considerably overpaid for Harper in hopes of a monumental breakout. Those same people will come back for more after he hit .288/.359/.454 with 11 of his 13 home runs during the second half, but his strikeout rate ballooned from 18.9 percent to 26.3, and he attempted just four steals. He’s a first-round talent, but drafters must access the apparent risks and show some restraint in redraft leagues.
33. Corey Kluber, SP, CLE: Kluber led all starting pitchers with a 7.3 WAR, notching a 1.73 ERA after the break. He ranked second with a 2.35 FIP and fifth with a 22.9 K/BB percentage. If everyone else is writing him off as a regression victim, happily scoop him up as an affordable No. 1 starter.
32. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB: All three facets of Longoria’s slash line have depreciated during each of the past two seasons, and his walk rate has trended downward three straight times. He’s still one of the top third basemen around, but he no longer merits a first- or second-round selection.
31. Victor Martinez, 1B, FA: After hitting 26 combined homers over the past two seasons, Martinez belted a career-high 32 in his age-35 season. Nobody struck out less than he did, but don’t be surprised to settle for a .300, 20-homer campaign.
Nos. 30-21
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30. Max Scherzer, SP, FA: Nobody has compiled more strikeouts over the past three years than Scherzer, so there are very few locations that could derail his status as a front-line fantasy starter.
29. Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN: His speed is groundbreaking, but his putrid .200/.254/.257 second-half slash line is tough to ignore. Also, he can’t be this generation’s biggest weapon on the basepaths if he gets caught 23 times in a single season.
28. Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS: The uncontrollable hype around Strasburg’s arrival has led to people expressing disappoint over a 26-year-old with 10.13 strikeouts and 1.80 walks per nine innings. A transcendent Cy Young-caliber breakout is still lurking in the horizon.
27. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL: No player churned out more line drives than Freddie Freeman, who netted a 31.0 liner percentage that bodes well for a bounce-back campaign.
26. Michael Brantley, OF, CLE: Early rankers are weary of Brantley’s out-of-nowhere breakout. He’s a line-drive fiend with a 3.4 career swinging-strikes percentage, so a .300 average is very much in play. It’s his 12.7 HR/FB percentage, above 2013’s previous best 6.8 percent, that supports the case for regression. If everyone is selling, however, don’t be afraid to buy if he’s available at a value.
25. David Price, SP, DET: Price posted a 7.13 K/BB ratio and a 2.78 FIP in 2014, both career bests. Even if 2014’s 3.26 ERA doesn’t reflect it, he’s still a top-shelf ace.
24. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FA: A top-10 superstar at his best, Ramirez’s slugging percentage dropped 190 points to .448, still a noteworthy mark from the shortstop. It’s not a pick for risk-averse fantasy managers.
23. Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD: Entering June with 11 home runs, Puig weirdly stopped hitting many deep balls, finishing the season with 16. His fly-ball percentage actually increased, so take an optimistic approach and note the sophomore’s improved plate discipline.
22. Ian Desmond, SS, WAS: That’s now three straight 20/20 seasons for Desmond, who plays an extremely thin shortstop position. His 28.2 strikeout percentage is alarming, but that power and speed combination is impossible to replicate elsewhere at short.
21. Justin Upton, OF, ATL: The younger and better Upton brother has settled into a fantasy role as Adam Jones with more walks and strikeouts. It’s time to give up on his ceiling as the next Ken Griffey Jr., but this .270, 29-homer, eight-steal model will do just fine.
Nos. 20-11
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20. Chris Sale, SP, CHW: Only Kershaw registered a higher K/BB percentage than Sale, who placed third in ERA (2.17) behind Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. Several aces can make the case for the No. 4 fantasy starter, but Sale has No. 3 all to himself.
19. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC: There’s the breakout everyone was waiting for. A 30-homer source is nothing to trifle with these days, and the Chicago Cubs have several budding offensive stars looming to help Rizzo expand his run production.
18. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU: Batting average is a scary thing to chase, even if Altuve provided a 7.5 percent walk rate and 91.1 contact percentage to support his league-leading .341 clip. If the average drops down to Earth, so will his career-high 56 stolen bases.
17. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, NYY: Yankee Stadium did not augment Ellsbury’s power the way drafters had hoped, but he still finished with 16 homers and 39 steals during a season that shortchanged expectations. Given his career-high 24.7 percent line-drive rate, the .271 average is in line for an uptick that will inject his line with more steals and runs.
16. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS: Before 2014, Rendon stole eight bases in 199 games. Last season, he stole 17. That’s the only area for regression, as he could very well chase a .300 average with a 5.2 swinging-strike percentage and 20.4 percent line-drive rates. Runs will also come aplenty atop Washington’s talented lineup.
15. Troy Tulowtizki, SS, COL: Tulowtizki was the best player on the planet while healthy in 2014, hitting a ridiculous .340/.432/.603 through 91 games. But he’s averaged 105 games played a year since 2010, so only daring drafters can comfortably take him during the opening round.
14. Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA: Everyone’s greatest fear materialized when Cano mustered just 14 home runs after trading in pinstripes to join the Mariners. Yet can the lower output all be blamed on moving from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field? He hit just five deep flies on the road last season after crushing 16 of them in 2013. A bounce-back year to 20 is all he needs to remain the No. 1 second baseman.
14. Adam Jones, OF, BAL: Somehow, Jones keeps walking less. His walk percentage has dropped from 4.9 percent in 2012 to 3.6 in 2013 and a ghastly 2.8 in 2014. Throw in just seven stolen bases, and he’s not trustworthy enough to grab in Round 1.
12. Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX: His power waned, but Beltre is now hitting .320 over the past three years. Despite his early DL stint that he recovered from to play 148 games, the 35-year-old remains one of the most trustworthy hitters on the market.
11. Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA: Pitchers are cast out in earlier rounds from their instability, but Hernandez has logged at least 30 starts and 200 innings in each of the past seven seasons. And he’s somehow getting better, posting a career-low 2.14 ERA, 2.56 FIP and 1.75 BB/9 ratio in 2014.
Nos. 10-1
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10. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, TOR: Encarnacion needed just 128 games to generate 34 long balls. Over the past three seasons, only Miguel Cabrera has tallied more homers (113) than the hulking yet streaky Encarnacion’s 112.
9. Jose Abreu, 1B, CHW: While Abreu’s .317 average seems unsustainable at first glance, he showed significant second-half improvement, recording a 10.7 walk and 18.1 strikeout percentage compared to the previous half’s 6.3 walk and 23.4 percent strikeout rates. If anything, he hits .280 while crushing another 35 bombs, and that’s just fine for fantasy gamers.
8. Jose Bautista, OF, TOR: If he keeps walking (103) more than he strikes out (96), Bautista could prove to no longer function as an average liability, even if last year’s .286 mark is a tad too high to expect again. Nevertheless, drafters want power in the early rounds, and Joey Bats offers that in spades.
7. Carlos Gomez, OF, MIL: Many drafters shied away from Gomez is fear of his .284 average sliding, but he delivered a carbon copy of that number in 2014. He also upped his walk rate from 6.3 to 7.3 percent while slashing his strikeout percentage 2.8 points. His extra patience led to 15 more runs.
6. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA: Health is the main concern here. Stanton's average will fall closer to his .278 career clip, but that’s more than enough for a 40/10 candidate.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI: On his way to another elite year before breaking his hand, Goldschmidt is the rare first baseman who can fill all five standard categories. Unless the Arizona Diamondbacks add some offense during the offseason, it’s reasonable to worry about his counting numbers (RBI and runs) taking a hit.
4. Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD: Can't blame anyone who wants a starter with two straight sub-2.00 ERAs with the second or third pick, but the fragility of pitchers drops Kershaw down a notch. For someone who prefers to target hitters early, No. 4 is a much higher ranking than the usual top starter earns.
3. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT: Over the past three years, McCutchen has submitted at least a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage. He’s also averaging 25 homers and 21 steals over that stretch, so his five-category stability leaps him above some higher-upside choices.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET: In a bad season by his standards, Cabrera hit .313 with 25 long balls, 109 RBI and 101 runs. That safely keeps him in such a prominent spot despite losing eligibility at third base.
1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA: Trout hit .287/.377/.562 with 36 home run and 16 steals. From a pure baseball standpoint, that was the worst season of his career, but drafters should overlook the 26.1 strikeout percentage and appreciate everything else he brings to the table. It’d be nice if he can at least swipe 20-30 bags next season, but the power barrage makes Trout the consensus No. 1 pick.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs
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