Predictions for 2014-2015 MLB Free Agency's Dreaded Qualifying Offers

The offseason is just a few days old, but there's already been a lot of talk about qualifying offers.

What is a qualifying offer, you ask? That’s a good question.

To put it simply, a qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer worth at least the annual average salary of the previous year’s top 125 free agents, per MLB Trade Rumors.

If a team extends a qualifying offer to an outgoing free agent and the player opts to sign elsewhere, his former club will receive a compensatory (or sandwich) draft pick between the first and second rounds.

Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent is forced to forfeit its first-round choice, unless the team has a protected top-10 pick. In that case, the signing team surrenders a second-round pick.

This year, Major League Baseball’s qualifying offer is valued at $15.3 million, per The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). However, it’s important to point out that no player has ever accepted a qualifying offer.

For a select few players, that decision has come back to bite them in the you-know-what. Specifically, Nelson Cruz had to settle for a one-year, $8 million deal last year, while Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales failed to land a contract until after the 2014 season began.

With all that being said, here’s a breakdown of this year’s candidates for qualifying offers and whether it makes sense for them to accept such a deal.

Players Who Will Receive a Qualifying Offer

Max Scherzer, RHP

The Detroit Tigers extended Scherzer a $15.3 million qualifying offer on Friday, though the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner will surely reject it given his potential to command a monster long-term contract as this year’s top free agent.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Russell Martin, C

Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has already stated he will do what he can—at least based on the team’s financial limitations—to keep Martin in a Pirates uniform, per Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

For now, however, the club plans to extend Martin, the hands-down top free-agent catcher on the market, a $15.3 million qualifying offer, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Victor Martinez, DH

Along with Max Scherzer, the Tigers extended Martinez a $15.3 qualifying offer on Friday, but as arguably the best hitter in this year’s free-agent class, it’s hard to imagine the 35-year-old designated hitter accepting the one-year contract.

That being said, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney still pegs the Tigers as the favorite to land (or rather re-sign) V-Mart.

Nelson Cruz, DH/OF

The Baltimore Orioles want to bring back Nelson Cruz for at least the 2015 season and plan to extend him a qualifying offer, according to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun.

While the 34-year-old is likely to reject the offer, Schmuck still believes the Orioles will be able to re-sign Cruz, even if it means offering him something along the lines of two years (possibly more) with at least $30 million guaranteed.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

James Shields, RHP

Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star believes that the Royals will make an attempt to retain Shields, 32, even after he rejects the team’s qualifying offer.

Hanley Ramirez, SS

ESPN Insider Buster Olney (subscription required) still expects the club to extend Ramirez a qualifying offer, though the shortstop is likely to reject it and pursue a deal elsewhere.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B

Pablo Sandoval, 28, turned down a three-year, $40 million extension offer from the Giants earlier this year but has repeatedly expressed a desire to remain in San Francisco, possibly even for the duration of his career. Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Giants plan to extend to him a qualifying offer, per Heyman.

However, re-signing Sandoval won’t come cheaply for the World Series champions, as Sandoval has his sights set on a $100 million contract, per Heyman.

Melky Cabrera, OF

Olney (subscription required) suggested back in early September, “It's a slam dunk that Cabrera will get a qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays given his production for the team, the offensive drought in the game in general and how well-regarded he has been since signing with Toronto.”

On Saturday, the Blue Jays officially extended Cabrera a qualifying offer, per the team’s Twitter feed, though he's expected to reject the deal and pursue a multiyear contract.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

David Robertson, RHP

David Robertson will be the top free-agent reliever on the market this year, and it’s widely believed that the 29-year-old right-hander is seeking a multiyear deal. For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumor’s Steve Adams expects Robertson to pursue a deal in the ballpark of four years, $52 million.

Therefore, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Yankees plan to extend a qualifying offer to Robertson, per Jack Curry of the YES Network, as several teams with a protected first-round draft pick are expected to pursue him this offseason.

Borderline Qualifying Offer Candidates

Francisco Liriano, LHP

Liriano is perhaps the biggest wild card when it comes to the qualifying offer, as his checkered medical history and up-and-down performance in recent years could potentially scare away most teams, especially those with an early first-round pick (outside of the protected top-10 picks).

With that in mind, Olney (subscription required) doesn’t foresee the Pirates offering Liriano a qualifying offer this year, especially if they believe they can bring him back at a discounted rate. However, after posting a 3.20 ERA over the last two seasons with the Pirates, there could be a greater-than-expected market for the 31-year-old left-hander’s services, which means a qualifying offer can’t be ruled out just yet.

David Goldman/Associated Press

Ervin Santana, RHP

Santana faced a similar situation last offseason, as the Royals offered the veteran right-hander a qualifying offer only to see him reject it in pursuit of a larger, multiyear deal. However, said multiyear deal never came Santana’s way, and he ended up singing a one-year deal with the Braves for $14.1 million.

The Braves are expected to extend a qualifying offer to the 31-year-old Santana this year, per David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. But given the concern about his previous elbow injuries and overall durability, it might make sense for Santana to accept the offer, which would make him the first player to accept a qualifying offer since its inception.