NFL Week 10 Picks: Early Predictions for Every Game

Persistence is an invaluable trait for those who rely on weekly NFL picks.

Last week is hardly a full day in the books, but those who have the ability and the downright wild work ethic to begin work on next week's slate of games put themselves at a serious advantage in the picks department, not to mention against the house of Las Vegas.

As fully expected, Week 9 was wild in many ways, with the Miami Dolphins' blowout of the San Diego Chargers perhaps the curveball that threw the most people for a loop. To avoid a similar fate in Week 10, it is time to get your hands dirty with a look at Thursday and beyond.

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cleveland at Cincinnati (Thurs., Nov. 6)	CIN -6	CLE	See analysis below.
Kansas City at Buffalo	KC -2	KC	Kansas City's offense finally seems to be turning things around and will move the ball well against the Buffalo defense.
Miami at Detroit	DET -2	DET	Miami is on a roll, but Detroit has an elite offense and defense and is at home.
Dallas at Jacksonville	N/A	DAL	The chance of no Tony Romo is scary, but so is Jacksonville's defense against DeMarco Murray.
San Francisco at New Orleans	NO -2.5	NO	The Saints at home will be able to upend a reeling San Francisco team.
Tennessee at Baltimore	BAL -10	BAL	A two-win Tennessee team stands no chance against a surefire contender.
Pittsburgh at NY Jets	PIT -2.5	PIT	A quarterback issue in New York will only get worse with Pittsburgh in town.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	TB -1.5	ATL	In a battle of the inept, defer to the team with the better quarterback.
Denver at Oakland	DEN -10.5	DEN	An angry Denver offense will have few issues blowing away one of the league's worst overall rosters.
St. Louis at Arizona	ARI -7.5	STL	St. Louis has a way of keeping games close and just upended San Francisco.
NY Giants at Seattle	SEA -7.5	SEA	Seattle has been no sure thing at home this year but will be against an injured New York team.
Chicago at Green Bay	GB -7.5	GB	Green Bay had a week of rest to figure out Chicago's defense, which is scary.
Carolina at Philadelphia (Mon., Nov. 10)	N/A	CAR	See analysis below.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Nov. 2.

Highlighting Top Matchups

Cleveland at Cincinnati

AJ Mast/Associated Press

This season's divisional Thursday encounters have tended to be letdowns with rather lopsided outcomes.

The AFC North showdown between the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football might just prove an outlier, though. Andy Behrens of Yahoo Sports put it best: 

In a strange turn of events, the Bengals defense is just as bad as the Browns defense, and, to make matters worse, Cincinnati once again figures to be without star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, per ESPN.com's Coley Harvey.

That is horrible news for the Bengals. The team just allowed 132 rushing yards and a score on a 5.3 per-carry average to Jacksonville, and the Browns happen to have one of the NFL's most potent attacks on the ground, as the numbers show:

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	20+	TD
Ben Tate	84	305	3.6	25	1	3
Isaiah Crowell	52	256	4.9	24	2	4
Terrance West	66	254	3.8	29	2	2

Then again, this game comes live from the Queen City on a short week, which favors the more experienced coaching staff.

Considering the impressive tenure of Marvin Lewis, there is no doubt quarterback Andy Dalton, who has completed better than 60 percent of his passes this season, will come out firing on all cylinders. A.J. Green returned from injury last week and scored a touchdown, while No. 2 Mohamed Sanu looked great yet again with four grabs for 95 yards and a score.

Perhaps things will be different when these two bitter in-state rivals meet again in Week 15 in Cleveland, but on a short week, home-field advantage and a veteran coaching staff with reliable weapons is the way to go when it comes to picks.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20

Carolina at Philadelphia

Speaking of miserable divisional performances, it was just last Thursday that the Carolina Panthers laid a gigantic egg in a divisional encounter against the New Orleans Saints, losing 28-10.

One of the league's downright worst run defenses allowed 105 yards and three scores on the ground to a pass-first team, and the offense suffered thanks to the play of Cam Newton, who went just 10-of-28 for 151 yards and an interception.

"We know we are better—simple as that," Newton said, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "It's nothing that someone has to say that hasn't already been said. It's a lot that hasn't been done yet."

Then again, the Philadelphia Eagles were not exactly on fire in a 10-point win over the Houston Texans this past weekend. The team lost Nick Foles to injury, but star back LeSean McCoy picked up the slack with 23 carries for 117 yards. By the sounds of it, Mark Sanchez may be the starter for this particular contest too.

Still, one has to think McCoy will have few issues keeping his streak of strong performances alive now that the team seems committed to paving the way on the ground first and foremost. That seems like the obvious approach against what is a surprisingly respectable pass defense.

Philadelphia is not exactly superb against the pass or the rush, but a miserable set of Carolina wideouts (the exception being rookie Kelvin Benjamin) and an offensive line that resembles a turnstile (the line has allowed 22 sacks) equates to what may prove a simplistic day at the office for Chip Kelly's defense.

Again, home-field advantage is a big factor here. The Eagles have yet to lose at home this season, and they most recently destroyed the New York Giants 27-0 in front of a friendly crowd. Carolina has more time to prepare, but a talent deficiency in key areas is not something that can be smoothed with more prep time.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Panthers 20

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, San Diego, Washington, Houston on bye.