NFL Picks: Week 9 Against the Spread

If you love scoring, last week's NFL action was a beautiful thing. 

If you read this column, it was just plain ugly. 

My picks pulled a big ol' goose egg. Yet, for what it's worth, I had a distinct chance of pulling off every one of them up until the final minutes (final seconds for two of them). 

Unfortunately, this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades, so that and a dollar can buy me a coffee. Which I did, and upon waking up and smelling it, I sense the tides turning for me this week. Maybe it's the caffeine talking, but I like my chances. 

Meanwhile, Bill Davis from Big Time Sharps didn't do much better last week, but regardless, common math does still indicate that 1-3 is better than 0-4. 

However, the beauty of pro football—and the subsequent gambling that goes along with it—is that it takes on an "any given Sunday" mentality. 

So with that said, both Bill and I are taking our mulligans and starting fresh with our top picks of the week, with lines courtesy of CoopersPick.com: 

Last Week

Bill: 1-3

Jeff: 0-4

Davis Pick No. 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: Over 43.5 Points

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"Tampa Bay is coming off a tough loss against the Vikings last week. However, the Bucs showed some signs of life in the third quarter, scoring all of their 13 points. The Browns only scored nine points against the Oakland Raiders in the first half but bounced back in the second half with 14 points in the fourth quarter."

Pick against the spread: "With both offenses performing better, the Davis Equation has the total going over the 44 points."

Glauser Pick No. 1: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 47.5 Points

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Fun stat No. 1: Fourteen of the past 15 matchups between these two teams (dating back to 2008) have totaled less than 48 points. 

Fun stat No. 2: Thirteen of those games were decided by one score. 

Combine that with the fact that both teams have identical 5-3 records, are battling for supremacy in the smashmouth AFC North and have high-powered running attacks, and it boggles my mind that this line has gone up 3.5 points throughout the week. 

Pick against the spread: Like an Australian, I'm down (with the) under. 

Davis Pick No. 2: San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over the Miami Dolphins

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"Miami’s offense looked poor in the first half in a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as it ran 20 plays for 48 yards and three points. The Dolphins will not be so lucky with Philip Rivers coming to town with a 109.5 passer rating and an improved defense that allows only 18.6 points per game on average."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation sees the wrong team favored here and has San Diego winning the game outright." 

Glauser Pick No. 2: Washington Redskins (Pick) over the Minnesota Vikings

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Although both teams are coming off victories, the Redskins' win over the Dallas Cowboys was clearly more impressive than anything the Vikings have done so far this season. Additionally, Robert Griffin III returns from injury in what could be a "put up or shut up" performance.

Pick against the spread: Hail to the Native Americans on this one. 

Davis Pick No. 3: Denver Broncos (-3) over New England Patriots

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"With two of the most dominant offensive teams in the league, it should come down to which defense can hold up the best. The Patriots defense allowed 384 yards from the Chicago Bears last week and 423 yards from the Jets the week before. Meanwhile, the Broncos allowed only 306 yards to the San Diego Chargers and allowed only 310 yards the week before against San Francisco 49ers."  

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the excellent offense and improved defense of the Broncos covering the spread."

Glauser Pick No. 3: San Francisco 49ers (-10) over the St. Louis Rams

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Minus a shocking win over the Seattle Seahawks a couple weeks ago, there hasn't been much to write home about for the Rams this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers are fresh off a bye week and healthier with the possible return of star linebacker Patrick Willis, according to the Bay Area News Group's Cam Inman. 

Pick against the Spread: The Niners need a win to keep pace in the NFC playoff picture. They won by 14 in St. Louis earlier this season. Expect something similar with home-field advantage this time around. 

Davis Pick No. 4: Oakland Raiders (+15) over the Seattle Seahawks

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"The Super Bowl champion Seahawks have the league's worst passing attack, and last week’s offensive debacle against the Carolina Panthers isn’t helping their cause to repeat this year. This looks like a blowout, yet there are many statistics that say it won’t be. 

"One example is that the Oakland Raiders are third in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage, while Seattle ranks 22nd. Additionally, Oakland is seventh in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage defense at 51.6 percent."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Oakland Raiders keeping it closer than people think and covering."

Glauser Pick No. 4: Indianapolis Colts (-3) over the New York Giants

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Speaking of getting mulligans, the Colts are hoping that last week's debacle against the Pittsburgh Steelers was simply a blip on the radar screen. Meanwhile, the Giants are now dealing with life after Victor Cruz as they play at home for the first time in a month (the last time they won, as well). 

Pick against the spread: It's hard to believe Indy will have two consecutive stinkers. And a loss or a win by less than three to the G-Men would qualify as a stinker. Ride the Colts. 

All quotes from Bill Davis acquired firsthand. All red-zone percentages from TeamRankings.com.