Odds of Top Potential Suitors Signing Each Elite 2014-2015 Free-Agent Target
The offseason is officially underway, as Major League Baseball on Thursday released its list of 121 players set to become free agents.
However, that number has already increased, as both teams and players have already declined options. Plus, even more players are expected to enter the mix this offseason, as teams will be forced to decide whether to offer specific players arbitration.
So, which teams stand the best chance at landing this year’s elite free agents?
In order to determine which free agents should be considered elite, we looked at each player’s 2014 production, using WAR as the determining factor, while also considering the latest rumors regarding his perceived interest on the open market.
With that being said, here are updated odds for the top potential suitors signing each elite free agent this offseason.
Jon Lester
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Chicago Cubs: 3-1
With upward of $70 million available to spend this offseason and adding quality pitching at the top of their to-do list, the Cubs are arguably the front-runner to land Jon Lester. As Bruce Levin of CBS Chicago notes, the two parties could be a good fit for each other, as Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer were responsible for drafting and developing Lester with the Boston Red Sox.
Meanwhile, right-hander Jake Peavy, also a free agent, recently mentioned that he and his close friend, Lester, could join up on Chicago’s north side next year.
"You never know what free agency brings," Peavy said, via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. "I've certainly talked to Jon Lester because we're buddies. So I have a feel for what he does. And I certainly know that Chicago would interest him and interest me."
Boston Red Sox: 7-1
Speculation over Lester potentially signing with the Red Sox this offseason took flight shortly after he was traded to the A’s. However, the left-hander made it known that he is more interested in pleasing his family than commanding the largest possible contract.
“I’m not going to the highest bidder,” Lester said, via John Tomase of the Boston Herald. “I’m going to the place that makes me and my family happy. If that’s Boston, it’s Boston.”
That being said, it’s worth noting that Lester has put his home in Newton, Massachusetts on the market, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.
New York Yankees: 15-1
Back in early July, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that the New York Yankees “are great admirers of Lester, especially for his big-game pitching record.” Though the team hasn’t been directly linked to Lester thus far, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com wouldn’t be surprised if the team emerged as a player for the left-hander:
“It would not be a shock to see the Yankees connected early in free agency to any of the big names out there: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields pacing the way, particularly if Hal Steinbrenner gives the OK to double down after last year's $175 million investment in Masahiro Tanaka.”
Max Scherzer
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Detroit Tigers: 10-1
The Detroit Tigers attempted to lock up Max Scherzer during spring training, but the right-hander rejected the team’s offer of six years, $144 million. On Friday, the club extended him a $15.3 million qualifying offer, which he surely will reject given his potential to command a monster long-term contract as this year’s top free agent.
Scherzer has stated that he’d like to return to Detroit. However, with approximately $151 million committed to their 2015 roster, per MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams, the Tigers are unlikely to have the capital needed to re-sign the ace right-hander.
That being said, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team might have a better chance at re-signing Scherzer than many believe given the lack of offense and increased number of elbow injuries across the game.
New York Yankees: 15-1
The Yankees have not been directly tied to Scherzer, but given the team’s monster payroll and willingness to spend, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the Yankees made a serious run at the right-hander this offseason.
Andy Martino of the New York Daily News suggests the Yankees should pass on Scherzer this winter considering prior long-term deals given to aging pitchers, namely CC Sabathia. At the same time, he also believes that if the Yankees decide to sign one of the elite free-agent pitchers, then Scherzer would make the most sense.
“There is no question that Scherzer can help the Yankees in 2015, if he remains healthy. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda might be a dominant 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but they could also fail to make 20 starts combined, considering their respective elbow and shoulder histories.”
Also in the mix: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs
Russell Martin
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Pittsburgh Pirates: 5-1
Pittsburgh—which reportedly made a multiyear offer to Russell Martin during the season—will do everything possible to re-sign him, and GM Neal Huntington has already stated he will do what he can, within reason, to keep Martin "in a Pirates uniform," per Travis Sawchik from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
For now, the Pirates plan to extend Martin a $15.3 million qualifying offer, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 8-1
The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing everything close to the chest right now, but with Andrew Friedman now calling the shots, there’s a chance the team could be in the market this offseason for an upgrade behind the plate.
If that’s the case, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) suggests Martin could be their guy: “Martin's recent success and history with the Dodgers could be attractive, and if the team ever gets fully invested in a pursuit of the catcher, well, it's hard to imagine it being outbid by the Pirates.”
Chicago Cubs: 15-1
Olney also writes: “Martin could not be a better fit, given the timing of his free agency and the team's expected push to win more in 2015. They have a need at catcher; Martin could fill that. They are rebuilding their pitching; Martin could be a part of that. They have a lot of young players being integrated into the majors; Martin could help with that, as he did in Pittsburgh. The Cubs have payroll flexibility, and Martin will be expensive.”
Also in the mix: Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
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Victor Martinez
4 of 9
Detroit Tigers: 4-1
Martinez will surely reject the $15.3 qualifying offer extended to him Friday by the Tigers, though, in theory, that could aid the team’s chances of re-signing the 35-year-old designated hitter.
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney believes the Tigers remain the favorite to land V-Mart: “One rival official said recently that considering the Tigers' win-at-all-costs approach and Martinez's importance in the Detroit lineup, he cannot see them being outbid for the DH. They'll give him a qualifying offer, and beyond that, the official said, they'll give him what it takes.”
Chicago White Sox: 7-1
Olney’s list of potential landing spots for Martinez also includes the Chicago White Sox, who will have plenty of financial flexibility this offseason and will seek a legitimate bat to follow Jose Abreu.
Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago also sees Martinez as a good fit for the South Siders from a financial standpoint: "Money-wise, Martinez would fit into White Sox general manager Rick Hahn’s offseason budget. The White Sox should have close to $30 million of flexible money if they just match the $90 million payroll they started the 2014 season at."
Also in the mix: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
Chase Headley
5 of 9
New York Yankees: 3-1
The Yankees can’t offer Chase Headley a qualifying offer after trading for him midseason, though the club still has interest in bringing him back next season, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. At the same time, the Yankees’ offseason pursuit of Headley will likely be determined by their plans for Alex Rodriguez.
Boston Red Sox: 7-1
While the Red Sox are more interested in signing Pablo Sandoval this offseason, Headley is second on their list and gives them a solid fallback option, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
As previously mentioned, Headley isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer and therefore won’t come with the additional cost of sacrificing a first-round draft pick in 2015. However, that doesn’t make a big difference for the Red Sox, who will have their first pick protected after finishing the regular season with a bottom-third record.
Also in the mix: Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
Nelson Cruz
6 of 9
Baltimore Orioles: 4-1
The Baltimore Orioles want to bring back Nelson Cruz for at least the 2015 season and plan to extend him a qualifying offer (about $15 million), according to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun.
“Since Cruz is 34, we're not talking about a six-year, $100 million contract," he writes. "The Orioles likely would prefer to offer him a two-year deal with an option worth about $30 million guaranteed. He could get more than that on the open market, but some of the big-market teams might not be in play this year.”
Baltimore knows that Cruz, depending on the type of deal he’s seeking, inevitably will receive more lucrative offers from other teams, but at the same time, any attempt the front office makes at replacing his 2014 production and overall impact will be expensive. Therefore, it makes sense for the Orioles to prioritize re-signing Cruz this offseason, even if that means giving the veteran $30 million to $35 million.
New York Yankees and Texas Rangers: 9-1
While the Tigers appear to be the early front-runners in the sweepstakes to land Cruz, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe also believes that the Yankees and Rangers will make the 34-year-old an offer.
However, as Brendan Kuty of NJ.com notes, working Cruz into the lineup won’t be easy for the Bronx Bombers, especially with Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira already competing for time in the DH role.
Also in the mix: Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers
James Shields
7 of 9
Boston Red Sox: 3-1
The Red Sox are guaranteed a top-10 draft pick in 2015 after finishing the regular season with a record that ranked in the bottom-third among all teams. As a result, the team would have to give up its second-rounder next year rather than its top pick.
The Red Sox don’t typically offer lengthy contracts to pitchers in their 30s, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald suspects that the team might still offer the 32-year-old James Shields something in the ballpark of four years and $20-plus million annually.
Kansas City Royals: 8-1
Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star believes that the Royals will make an attempt to retain Shields, 32, even after he rejects a qualifying offer. However, he also acknowledges the team will face stiff competition in doing so, as Shields will be more affordable than Scherzer and Lester, therefore making him a potential option for more teams:
"Rival executives expect him to fetch a five-year deal worth somewhere between $80 million and $110 million. The largest contract in Royals franchise history was their $55-million pact with Gil Meche. The team did not attempt to engage in contract negotiations with Shields before this season began, and have made contingency plans for his potential departure.
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Also in the mix: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays
Hanley Ramirez
8 of 9
Los Angeles Dodgers: 7-1
Hanley Ramirez’s days in Tinsel Town might be over.
According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney: “The two sides talked about a multiyear deal last offseason, but Ramirez wanted a lot more than what the team was willing to offer, and now it looks as though they could be moving in different directions.”
The fact that the Dodgers recently landed a new president of baseball operations in Andrew Friedman doesn’t bode well for Ramirez’s future with the organization. However, Olney still expects the club to extend Ramirez a qualifying offer, though the shortstop is likely to reject it and pursue a deal elsewhere.
New York Yankees: 12-1
The Yankees haven’t been linked to Ramirez directly, but it’s hard to imagine them not kicking the tires on him this offseason given their glaring hole at shortstop. In the end, it’ll likely come down to whether the Yankees feel comfortable giving a large contract to an aging player with injury concerns and defensive limitations.
Also in the mix: Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
Pablo Sandoval
9 of 9
San Francisco Giants: 3-1
Pablo Sandoval, 28, turned down a three-year, $40 million extension offer from the Giants earlier this year, but he’s repeatedly expressed a desire to remain in San Francisco, possibly even for the duration of his career.
But re-signing Sandoval won’t come cheaply for the World Series champion Giants, as Sandoval has his sights set on a $100 million contract, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. Yet Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports believes the Giants will ultimately give in to the Kung Fu Panda’s contract demands, as the team lacks a suitable internal replacement at the hot corner.
Boston Red Sox: 9-1
Boston’s third basemen struggled mightily in 2014, as their collective .211 batting average and .580 OPS from the position ranked 29th and 30th in the major leagues, respectively. Therefore, it doesn’t come as a surprise that the Red Sox are prioritizing signing either Sandoval or Headley this offseason, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe believes Sandoval is the better fit of the two for the Red Sox, as the team is in need of a left-handed hitter and lack a dependable third baseman. He also notes that Sandoval’s personality would fit the Red Sox nicely.
Also in the mix: Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
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