MLB Free Agency 2014: Clues to Where the Top 10 Players Will Land
The quiet window has closed and qualifying offers have been tendered, marking the all-out onset of MLB free agency. It's an exciting time for fans of every franchise.
Unfortunately, there is so much information to digest that it takes a bit of sleuthing to determine where a player is going to land.
With that as a backdrop, what can we infer from the rhetoric regarding the top 10 MLB free agents? What clues have been dropped that shed light on potential destinations?
As a standard note moving forward, the players listed here were pulled from B/R's 2014-15 free-agent tracker and are listed by WAR, as calculated by FanGraphs. This is not a player ranking. It is a list based on WAR, nothing more.
Here are the latest clues as to where the top 10 free agents will land.
10. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
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When a player set to hit free agency puts up a .429/.467/.536 slash line in the World Series the way Pablo Sandoval did, the natural reaction from both sides is to advocate for a new contract that keeps the hero in a hometown uniform for several years.
And often, things end up working out. After all, the team is flush with new revenue, and the player feels a sense of success and attachment to his franchise.
But Sandoval has won three championships with the San Francisco Giants and is on the cusp of a monster contract—one general manager Brian Sabean may not be able to fit into the budget.
Frankly, multiple sources, including Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe, have reported that the Giants aren’t all that excited about adding a fourth and a fifth year to the three-year offer they made during spring training. Sabean is certainly willing to raise the stakes per annum, but the length could be a sticking point.
Then on Monday, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal noted that the third baseman was going to hit free agency before the Giants had a chance to “outbid other clubs.” He pointed to several examples from the past, including Jeremy Affeldt and Marco Scutaro. The only problem is that neither of those players is anywhere close to the same caliber of player that Sandoval is.
And let’s not overlook the fact that Aramis Ramirez exercised his half of the $14 million mutual option Monday. Simply put, his return to the Milwaukee Brewers thins an already thin free-agent position.
Last week, we would have said that there’s no way the Giants let Sandoval leave. Now, the information at hand is painting a different picture. To be sure, it’s incomplete, but Panda’s return to the Giants is far from certain.
On Tuesday, Rosenthal reported that Sandoval rejected the qualifying offer the Giants extended less than 24 hours earlier.
9. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP
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It stands to reason that if Hiroki Kuroda chooses to pitch again, the New York Yankees would welcome him with open arms.
True, Kuroda was not given a qualifying offer by Monday’s 5 p.m. ET deadline, but that matters little. As NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty noted, "Kuroda was perhaps the Yankees most steady starter, pitching 199 innings with a 3.71 ERA and an 11-9 record.”
Had Masahiro Tanaka been healthy, of course, Kuty wouldn’t have been able to make that comment, which brings up an interesting point: At 39, Kuroda found legitimate success in the Yankees rotation, anchoring an injury-ravaged rotation.
Again, if he wants to come back, general manager Brain Cashman would have to make room.
One caveat to consider is that if Kuroda retires, it may only be from MLB. As Daniel Barbarisi from The Wall Street Journal notes, the right-hander “hasn’t decided if he wants to pitch in America...or return to Japan to pitch there.”
8. Hanley Ramirez, SS
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What is going to happen with Hanley Ramirez is still very much uncertain.
Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers extended a qualifying offer his way Monday, per the club’s Twitter feed, but that tells us little other than the fact that the Dodgers are going to get a compensatory draft pick should he decline the offer and sign elsewhere.
Outside that, questions rule the conversation.
For instance, will he sign as an everyday shortstop in the National League? Will he open himself up to new markets by conceding that a position switch to third base is in order. Will he sign on as a designated hitter in the American League?
So many things to consider, and each of them will be a factor in where he lands.
That said, there are many, including SB Nation’s Alex Skillin, who are of the opinion Ramirez will get paid regardless. “No one,” Skillin wrote, “can question Ramirez's skills at the plate, however, and that means some team will have to pony up plenty of cash to sign the Dominican Republic native.”
In other words, the clues are sparse. So much more needs to be revealed before any kind of accurate assessment can be made.
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7. James Shields, RHP
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James Shields is 114-90 during the regular season with a 3.72 ERA, 3.77 FIP and a 1.220 WHIP. In the postseason, he’s compiled a 5.46 ERA and a 1.534 WHIP and has lost six out of nine decisions.
In other words, Shields is best served going to a club where he would be a secondary piece.
Now, that is not to say that he won’t be central to the team’s success, but he simply isn’t a guy like Madison Bumgarner who can carry a team in the postseason. Starting Game 1 and starting Game 2 of a postseason series are two utterly different responsibilities.
It is a sentiment shared by many, including NESN.com’s Ricky Doyle. When discussing the Boston Red Sox as a landing spot for the right-hander, Doyle wrote that “an offseason pursuit of Shields should be secondary to a pursuit of Lester.”
So while Shields has been mentioned as a fit for the Chicago Cubs by the Chicago Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer, he may not serve the desired purpose unless Jon Lester is already on board.
Now, three of the four clubs that Andy McCullough from The Kansas City Star mentioned—the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees—fit the must-have-a-star-pitcher-already-in-place criterion.
The Dodgers make sense given seemingly endless pockets, as do the Yankees. The Angels would have to shed salary in order to absorb what could be an $18 million commitment per annum. And each of those clubs would have to surrender a first-round draft pick because of the qualifying offer the Royals extended to Shields on Monday, per the team’s Twitter feed.
So other than an organization taking a leap of faith with Shields at the top of its rotation, he will end up as a No. 2 starter on a contending team that already has a legitimate ace.
6. Nelson Cruz, DH/OF
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The forecast for Nelson Cruz grows cloudier by the day.
To start with, two potential suitors have seemingly removed themselves from the conversation over the past few days.
The Texas Rangers, for example, have an established need for right-handed power in the middle of the lineup, making a reunion with Cruz plausible. Unfortunately, general manager Jon Daniels is on record saying that his club will “probably be more trade-focused than free-agent-focused, at least early on,” per Jeff Wilson from the Star-Telegram. “The top-dollar guys,” Daniels continued, “most likely won’t be a fit for us this winter.”
Check Cruz off the to-do list for Daniels.
And while the Seattle Mariners haven’t officially said that Cruz won’t be pursued, Bob Dutton, writing for The Olympian, has his doubts. “The Mariners,” Dutton wrote, “would likely need to offer at least three years at close to $50 million and lose their first-round pick next year to bring Cruz to the Northwest. Seems unlikely.”
To be sure, other clubs could rise to the surface as landing spots, but the more the information is digested, the likelier it is that Cruz ends up right where he started—with the Baltimore Orioles.
Not that that’s a bad thing, of course. From all accounts, each side is quite pleased with the way things worked out after Cruz signed a one-year, $8 million contract this past offseson, but the Orioles will still need to submit a worthwhile offer.
5. Chase Headley, 3B
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Chase Headley is a wanted man.
Unfortunately, his destination this offseason is muddied by the fact that he is one of only two options at third base capable of immediately impacting a club’s performance. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) succinctly summarizes the problem when trying to identify where the switch-hitter will sign:
"…Headly is in an excellent position to weigh his options as the offseason begins, as the clear No. 2 third baseman in the market behind Pablo Sandoval. Headley could consider taking a one-year deal with a team like the [New York] Yankees, in a ballpark that plays to his swing (like Cruz and Camden Yards next season), or Headley could weigh one of the multi-year offers he is likely to receive in an offseason thin in available position players.
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For their part, the Yankees are focusing their attention on bringing Headley back. That is if we are to trust Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News.
“The Yankees,” the pair wrote, “are interested in bringing back Headley, a sign that they are viewing A-Rod as a designated hitter.” The idea is a practical one for general manager Brian Cashman.
Sure, there is the fact that between Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez, they are already too old, prone to injury and limited defensively, but there is no doubt that the Yankees are a better club with Martin Prado able to split time between third, second and right field.
What Headley must decide is if he believes he can perform at a high level for one more season in the Bronx. If he does, he could cash in next offseason, when he will be the best option available at the position, assuming Adrian Beltre’s 2016 option vests.
Then again, the security of a two- or three-year contract now may be too much to pass up.
4. Victor Martinez, DH
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When it comes to clues regarding Victor Martinez, there are many, but only a few that seem to have any legs.
At the top of the list are the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox.
To that end, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) wrote that “in all likelihood” the designated hitter “is going to land with the Tigers or White Sox.”
Now, it’s no secret that Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski wants to retain Martinez. In fact, Dombrowski has been quoted saying that bringing back the switch-hitter is something he would “love” to do, per MLive.com’s James Schmehl.
And it’s also widely accepted that Hahn needs to add to his lineup.
He is on record saying that the White Sox “are not looking to sort of squander that [opportunity] to enjoy their best years & the effort to win a champion,” via CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes. He was, of course, referring to the fact that adding talent around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu in their primes is smart business.
It must be noted that four years (which is what Martinez is looking for, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman) and $50-$60 million is an awful lot of money for Hahn and the White Sox, but it’s safe to assume that the Tigers have legitimate competition for Martinez’s services.
Let’s not overlook the Seattle Mariners, though. True, the M’s have said that they’d like to get two right-handed hitters for the lineup, per Bob Dutton from The News Tribune, but grabbing Martinez would be a coup for general manager Jack Zduriencik.
So if we’re reading between the lines here, it would seem that this is a two-horse race with an outlier capable of stepping up.
3. Russell Martin, C
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In contrast to the top-tier starting pitchers available, the market for Russell Martin seems to be opening up.
Sure, long-rumored destinations include the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers, and a return to the Pittsburgh Pirates isn’t out of the question—yet. But you can add the Toronto Blue Jays to the list of teams that are considering making a run at the All-Star catcher, per Jeff Blair from SportsNet.ca.
To be sure, the Blue Jays aren’t the freest-spending franchise in the game, but they did create some significant salary space when they traded Adam Lind’s $7.5 million contract to the Milwaukee Brewers for Marco Estrada.
True, Estrada earned $3.325 million last season and is eligible for arbitration, meaning that his salary will go up, but there is a potential for $3 million in savings. And, as Blair pointed out, let’s not overlook the options that weren’t exercised on Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow and Sergio Santos, adding more resources to general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ coffers.
If anything, the Blue Jays’ pursuit shows that Martin won’t be restricted in his options.
2. Max Scherzer, RHP
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As with Jon Lester, the market for Max Scherzer is already limited. Simply put, there aren’t that many clubs that have the financial wherewithal to assume the salary figure that the right-hander is assuredly going to demand.
And like Lester, one of the clubs that has historically taken on large contracts for the best free agents (and trade targets) is out of the running. Per Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News, the New York Yankees will not target Scherzer this offseason, instead focusing on Brandon McCarthy.
If true, Scherzer’s options are severely limited. After all, the Yankees often inflate the market with the contracts they offer.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Scherzer isn’t going back to the Detroit Tigers. Multiple sources, including the Detroit Free Press’ George Sipple, report that general manager Dave Dombrowski is focused on Victor Martinez and isn’t going to make a lot of noise in free agency.
Truthfully, Scherzer may not sign a contract for some time. As Joel Sherman from the New York Post noted some time ago, “we are at a new moment in history when offense has vanished and in risk vs. reward, more teams—even if it means spurning someone as terrific as Scherzer—are going to shun the risk.”
Add to that the fact that there are so many pitching options available this offseason, and Scherzer’s market may not be as grand as he hopes, potentially opening the door for a sleeper club.
1. Jon Lester, LHP
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Jon Lester is going to get paid a great deal of money this offseason. The only question is by whom?
One of the clubs that is often believed to be a landing spot for him is the Boston Red Sox, but there are two schools of thought.
Jon Heyman from CBS Sports reported that a reunion between the two is unlikely. He cited a “rival exec” who “stressed that Red Sox owner John Henry is ‘risk averse’ when it comes to long deals, especially for pitchers.”
Then again, the Red Sox desperately need an ace to anchor the rotation, making Lester an ideal target. And chairman Tom Werner is on record saying that while there is a limit to what will be spent, the organization has “a lot of money to spend and we’re determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team,” per WEEI’s Jerry Spar.
So either the Red Sox have no interest in a seven-year commitment, or they realize that Lester is a special pitcher capable of being an ace for the next several seasons before becoming one of the better No. 3 starters in baseball as he plays his contract out.
And then there are the Chicago Cubs.
The Chicago Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer wrote on Monday that “the Cubs and top-target left-hander Jon Lester have strong mutual interest, according to multiple sources, and are certain to engage in serious talks this winter.”
Now, Wittenmyer—and many others—have noted that the Cubs aren’t beholden to Lester and won’t “go Yankee-crazy on a bid,” but a solid offer is likely considering his relationship with president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and the recent hiring of Joe Maddon.
One club that Lester will not end up with is the New York Yankees. According to Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News, “the Yankees have no plans to pursue” the left-hander.
So looking at Lester’s destination point through the lens of available information, there isn’t a lot of supposition involved. The Cubs have to be considered the odds-on favorite to land the jewel of free-agent pitchers.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
Follow @MatthewSmithBR
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