Breaking Down 2015 MLB Free-Agent Class into Position-by-Position Tiers
An MLB free agent's value is not always determined by his own individual abilities, but also by the market as a whole at his respective position.
For example, Omar Infante landed a four-year, $30.25 million deal from the Kansas City Royals last season, due in large part to the fact that once Robinson Cano signed with the Seattle Mariners, he was far and away the best option among available second basemen.
With that in mind, what follows is a full position-by-position overview of this year's free-agent class, with the players broken into four tiers at each position.
- Tier 1: A star-caliber position player or pitcher, one of the best at his respective position.
- Tier 2: An everyday position player, middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher or solid late-inning reliever.
- Tier 3: A platoon player or reserve likely to see extended playing time, No. 5 starting pitcher/swingman or average middle reliever.
- Tier 4: Organizational depth likely to be on the big league roster at some point, but nothing more.
So, with that tier system established, let's dive into the 2015 free-agent class with position-by-position tiers.
Catchers
1 of 12
| Russell Martin | Nick Hundley | J.P. Arencibia | John Buck |
| Geovany Soto | Ryan Doumit | Gerald Laird | |
| A.J. Pierzynski | Wil Nieves | ||
| Humberto Quintero | |||
| David Ross |
The free-agent market for catchers is thin as usual, though there is one star-caliber option out there in Russell Martin. The 31-year-old hit .290/.402/.430 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs last season, and he produced a 9.9 WAR over the course of his two-year, $17 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates will do their best to bring Martin back, but there are a number of teams expected to be vying for his services, including the Chicago Cubs, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Martin is the only slam-dunk option to be an everyday backstop, but there are some second-tier guys who could see a significant role, led by Nick Hundley and Geovany Soto. Hundley had a .625 OPS over 159 at-bats splitting time with Caleb Joseph in Baltimore, and he is just a year removed from a 13-homer season with the San Diego Padres.
Soto was slated to be the Texas Rangers starter last season before knee surgery cost him 95 games, and he still has some sleeper value as a solid defensive catcher with some pop. If anyone is going to emerge as the Kurt Suzuki of this class, it will likely be Soto.
First Basemen
2 of 12
| Adam LaRoche | Michael Cuddyer | Jozzen Cuesta | Mike Carp |
| Michael Morse | Corey Hart | Jason Giambi | |
| Mark Reynolds | Lyle Overbay | Carlos Pena | |
| Mark Reynolds |
With the Washington Nationals looking to move Ryan Zimmerman to first base full time, they declined their $15 million option on incumbent Adam LaRoche, making him one of the top bats on the free-agent market. The 34-year-old hit .259/.362/.455 with 26 home runs and 92 RBI last season, and when healthy, he remains a plus offensive option at the position.
The Milwaukee Brewers seemed like a good fit for LaRoche heading into the offseason, but they acquired Adam Lind from the Toronto Blue Jays to fill their need at first base, so it remains to be seen where LaRoche could wind up.
Michael Cuddyer received a qualifying offer from the Colorado Rockies, and the 35-year-old may very well be the first player to accept. After winning the NL batting title in 2013, he was limited to just 49 games last season, and $15.3 million may be too much for him to pass up.
Michael Morse saw the bulk of his at-bats in left field for the San Francisco Giants last season, but he is better suited as a first baseman/designated hitter type. He has right-handed power, which is always in rare supply, and should earn more than the one-year, $6 million deal he signed last offseason.
Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay held their own in a platoon for the Brewers after agreeing to minor league deals at the end of the offseason, and they will again be fighting for a guaranteed contract this winter. The same goes for Corey Hart, who provided next to nothing on a one-year, $6 million deal with the Seattle Mariners.
Jozzen Cuesta is no Jose Abreu, but the fellow Cuban defector has some power potential, and at 25 years old, he represents a younger alternative to the aging veterans who make up the rest of the first base market.
Second Basemen
3 of 12
| None | Asdrubal Cabrera | Emilio Bonifacio | Alexi Casilla |
| Stephen Drew | Alberto Callaspo | Rafael Furcal | |
| Jed Lowrie | Kelly Johnson | Munenori Kawasaki | |
| Rickie Weeks | Hector Olivera | Hiroyuki Nakajima |
There is no Robinson Cano in this year's crop of free-agent second basemen. In fact, there's not even an Omar Infante, who signed a four-year, $30.25 million deal with the Royals last offseason. Instead, the bulk of the viable starting options are shortstops whose ticket to remaining an everyday player may be a move over to second base in the coming season.
Asdrubal Cabrera already made that move when he was traded to the Nationals at the deadline last year, while Stephen Drew played the position for the first time last season with the New York Yankees. Jed Lowrie remained the Oakland A's primary shortstop in 2014, but he would be a more appealing option from an offensive standpoint if he moved to second.
The top option among natural second basemen is Rickie Weeks, who was relegated to a platoon role for the Brewers this past season thanks to the emergence of Scooter Gennett. The 32-year-old hit .274/.357/.452 with eight home runs and 29 RBI in 252 at-bats, and he posted an .865 OPS against left-handed pitching, so at the very least he should be able to find his way into another platoon.
If there is an X-factor in this group, it is 29-year-old Cuban defector Hector Olivera, who has yet to establish residency and be named a free agent but could very well be available this offseason.
"At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size," wrote Ben Badler of Baseball America.
Rafael Furcal was signed to be the Miami Marlins' everyday second baseman last season, but injuries limited him to just nine games, and the 37-year-old will likely have to settle for a minor league deal if he hopes to keep playing.
Third Basemen
4 of 12
| Hanley Ramirez | Chase Headley | Alberto Callaspo | Jack Hannahan |
| Pablo Sandoval | Mark Reynolds |
After another brilliant postseason performance, Pablo Sandoval figures to land one of the biggest contracts of any position player this offseason. The question is, will he remain with the Giants or take his talents elsewhere?
The 28-year-old has already turned down his qualifying offer from the Giants, as expected, and he is reportedly seeking a contract in the $100 million neighborhood, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
The Boston Red Sox are expected to be the top suitors for Sandoval on the open market as they look to upgrade over Will Middlebrooks, who could in turn become one of the more intriguing buy-low options on the trade market.
Whoever misses out on Sandoval will likely turn their attention to Chase Headley, who helped rebuild some value after being traded to the Yankees at the deadline last year. All told, he hit .243/.328/.372 with 20 doubles and 13 home runs last season while also leading all third basemen with a 28.0 UZR/150 and ranking third with 13 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a four-year, $48 million deal for Headley, and that could come from the Yankees, as they are reportedly interested in bringing him back.
It remains to be seen how the market for Hanley Ramirez will develop this offseason, but he may be able to broaden his field of suitors if he is open to the idea of moving to third base, something he has balked at in the past.
Alberto Callaspo is best suited as a utility guy at this point in his career, and Mark Reynolds is a below-average defender at the hot corner who will likely be a first baseman/designated hitter type the remainder of his career.
Shortstops
5 of 12
| Hanley Ramirez | Asdrubal Cabrera | Jung-Ho Kang | Clint Barmes |
| Stephen Drew | Munenori Kawasaki | ||
| Jed Lowrie | John McDonald | ||
| Hiroyuki Nakajima |
It's too bad Hanley Ramirez wasn't a free agent last offseason, at least for his sake. The 30-year-old hit .345/.402/.638 with 25 doubles and 20 home runs in just 86 games in 2013, but he saw those numbers drop to .283/.369/.448 with 35 doubles and 13 home runs in 128 games this past season.
Offense has never been the issue with Han-Ram, though, it's his below-average defensive skills and inability to stay healthy that has hurt his free-agent value. His minus-15.6 UZR/150 was worst among qualified NL shortstops, and he contributed minus-nine DRS, according to FanGraphs. That while dealing with a myriad of injuries throughout the course of the season.
With a qualifying offer attached to him, it will be interesting to see how many teams even pursue Ramirez, as there are cheaper veteran options out there.
Asdrubal Cabrera is the best of that bunch, as he has at least 14 home runs and 60 RBI in each of the past four seasons. He is a below-average defender himself, but he's still significantly better than Ramirez with the glove.
Jed Lowrie saw his OPS drop from .791 in 2013 to .676 this past season, as his home run total dipped to just six after hitting 31 over the previous two seasons. There is still offensive upside with the 30-year-old, though, so he should be able to find an everyday job.
Jung-Ho Kang is the unknown commodity here, after hitting .354/.457/.733 with 39 home runs and 115 RBI for the Nexon Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization last year. Despite those numbers, he has his skeptics, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe:
"There is still some pushback from scouts who have seen him play on whether he translates to major league baseball. Some of the alarms include the leg kick in his stance that’s very pronounced and lasts deep into his swing. There also has always been skepticism over his ability to play shortstop in the majors.
"
Stephen Drew may be the value play of the position. He did not sign until late-May last season after receiving a qualifying offer, and he went on to hit .162/.237/.299 over 271 at-bats. A regular preseason routine could have him back to his 2013 production, at a fraction of the price.
Corner Outfielders
6 of 12
| Melky Cabrera | Nori Aoki | Chris Denorfia | Endy Chavez |
| Nelson Cruz | Michael Cuddyer | Jonny Gomes | Scott Hairston |
| Yasmany Tomas | Torii Hunter | Corey Hart | Reed Johnson |
| Michael Morse | Ryan Ludwick | Nate Schierholtz | |
| Alex Rios | Ichiro Suzuki | ||
| Josh Willingham | |||
| Delmon Young |
After a dismal first season with the Blue Jays, Melky Cabrera rebounded nicely in 2014, hitting .301/.351/.458 with 35 doubles and 16 home runs. That should set him up for a significant raise over the two-year, $16 million deal he landed two years ago on the heels of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. The Blue Jays made him a qualifying offer, and are expected to push hard to re-sign him to a long-term deal.
We'll talk more about Nelson Cruz on the designated hitter slide, but he still figures to see some time in the outfield next season, despite his defensive shortcomings.
The hot commodity among corner outfielders appears to be 23-year-old Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who will likely blow past the six-year, $68 million deal Jose Abreu received from the Chicago White Sox last offseason.
"A right-handed-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote.
There were as many as six teams showing strong interest in the slugger early on this offseason, according to a tweet from Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Alex Rios and Nori Aoki should both be able to snag everyday jobs, while 39-year-old Torii Hunter (.765 OPS, 17 HR) remains productive and is still chasing a ring before he retires.
Ichiro Suzuki is 156 hits away from 3,000 for his MLB career, and he was still fairly productive last season, with a .284/.324/.340 line over 359 at-bats for the Yankees.
Center Fielders
7 of 12
| None | Colby Rasmus | Chris Young | Endy Chavez |
| Emilio Bonifacio | Franklin Gutierrez |
The pickings are slim among free-agent center fielders this offseason, and that could mean someone getting desperate enough to overpay Colby Rasmus.
The former top prospects in the St. Louis Cardinals organization enjoyed a breakout season in 2013 when he hit .276/.338/.501 with 22 home runs and 66 RBI on his way to a 4.6 WAR. However, those numbers plummeted to .225/.287/.448 with 18 home runs and 40 RBI for a 0.9 WAR this past season, and the Blue Jays appear ready to let him walk in favor of prospect Dalton Pompey.
Jedd Todd of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a one-year, $12 million deal for Rasmus as he looks to rebuild some value, but he went on to write that he would not be surprised to see him get a three-year deal.
Chris Young was a disaster for the New York Mets on a one-year, $7.25 million deal last season. He opened some eyes with the Yankees down the stretch, though, posting an .876 OPS with eight doubles and three home runs in 71 at-bats. That could be enough to land him a guaranteed contract in this market.
Emilio Bonifacio is best suited in the superutility role he occupied last season, but he too could be in line for an expanded role in center field due to a lack of other options.
Designated Hitters
8 of 12
| Nelson Cruz | Billy Butler | Corey Hart | Jason Giambi |
| Victor Martinez | Michael Cuddyer | Ryan Ludwick | Raul Ibanez |
| Michael Morse | Josh Willingham | Carlos Pena | |
| Mark Reynolds | Delmon Young |
Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez are the two top bats of this year's free-agent class by a decent margin, but the fact that they are both on the wrong side of 34 and limited to mostly DH duty will likely keep them from exceeding a four-year deal.
Cruz hit .271/.333/.525 with 40 home runs and 108 RBI on a one-year, $8 million deal this past season, making him one of the best bargains around. The 34-year-old is seeking a four-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and a reunion with the Baltimore Orioles looks like the most likely outcome at this point.
Martinez enjoyed the best year of his career in 2014, hitting .335/.409/.565 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI, and he just wrapped up a four-year, $50 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. He will be entering his age-36 season next year, and he too is targeting a four-year pact, according to Heyman. The Tigers will make every effort to bring him back, but the White Sox are reportedly very interested as well.
Billy Butler had his $12.5 million option declined by the Royals, and his status as a DH-only player hurts his value. That said, he is still only 28 years old, and he brings the ever-elusive right-handed power that is so coveted these days.
Guys like Michael Morse, Mark Reynolds, Josh Willingham and Ryan Ludwick could all be low-cost options to DH given their limited defensive value.
Right-Handed Starting Pitchers
9 of 12
| Max Scherzer | Aaron Harang | Kevin Correia | Scott Baker |
| James Shields | Kenta Maeda | Jason Hammel | Chad Billingsley |
| Brandon McCarthy | Roberto Hernandez | Gavin Floyd | |
| Jake Peavy | Kyle Kendrick | Josh Johnson | |
| Ervin Santana | Hiroki Kuroda | Carlos Villanueva | |
| Edinson Volquez | Colby Lewis | ||
| Justin Masterson | |||
| Brandon Morrow | |||
| Ryan Vogelsong | |||
| Chris Young |
The cream of the crop here is obviously Max Scherzer and James Shields, two bona fide aces set to cash in on the open market.
Scherzer turned down a six-year, $144 million extension offer from the Tigers last offseason, then followed up his 2013 Cy Young performance by going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 220.1 innings of work.
Shields struggled in the postseason, but he should still land a deal pushing nine figures. He is as durable as it gets, with eight straight 200-inning seasons, and he was 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 180 strikeouts in 227 innings this past season.
Among the second tier of arms, Ervin Santana was again saddled with a qualifying offer after going 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA for the Atlanta Braves. He could wind up accepting to avoid suffering a similar fate to what he did a year ago when he did not sign until March.
Aaron Harang (12-12, 3.57 ERA, 3.57 FIP) was a steal for the Braves on a one-year, $1 million deal, and Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA, 4.15 FIP) was the latest reclamation project to find success with the Pirates on a one-year, $5 million contract.
Jake Peavy and Brandon McCarthy both turned their seasons around after being traded at the deadline, as Peavy went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts with the Giants and McCarthy was 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 14 starts with the Yankees.
Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda is not quite on the level of Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, but the 26-year-old should be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm after going 82-59 with a 2.44 ERA in six seasons with the Hiroshima Carp.
Digging a little deeper, Justin Masterson could be this year's one-year steal in the mold of Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel the past two seasons. He was in line for a huge payday after a breakout season in 2013 (14-10, 3.45 ERA) but saw his numbers bottom out to 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA this past year.
Left-Handed Starting Pitchers
10 of 12
| Jon Lester | Francisco Liriano | Brett Anderson | Johan Santana |
| Chris Capuano | Joe Saunders | ||
| Yasmany Hernandez | |||
| Paul Maholm | |||
| Misael Siverio |
Jon Lester is probably the best left-handed starting pitcher to hit the open market since Randy Johnson signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks prior to the 2009 season. He was 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 219.2 innings this past season, and he carries a career record of 116-67 with a 3.58 ERA in nine big league seasons.
What makes him even more attractive is his postseason track record, as he has gone 6-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 14 games (12 starts) in October. That includes 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three World Series starts, including a pair of gems during the Red Sox's run to the title in 2013.
The Cubs look like the favorites to land the 30-year-old at this point, as he would give them the bona fide staff ace they are looking for in their push to return to contention.
Francisco Liriano is not nearly as sure a thing as Lester is, given his injury history and overall inconsistency throughout his career, but he too is capable of pitching like an ace when he's at his best. The 31-year-old was 23-18 with a 3.20 ERA and 338 strikeouts in 323.1 innings over the past two seasons with the Pirates, and that was enough for the team to extend him a qualifying offer.
Outside of Michael Cuddyer and perhaps Ervin Santana, he seems like the most likely candidate to accept, but he should be able to find a multiyear deal and some stability if he does decide to decline.
Veterans Chris Capuano and Paul Maholm continue to be useful arms capable of starting or relieving. Brett Anderson can't stay healthy, but he still has attractive upside as a 26-year-old, and he did have a 2.91 ERA in eight starts for the Rockies last year.
International prospects Yasmany Hernandez (Cuba) and Misael Siverio (Mexico) are not expected to be impact arms, but both have some upside and could find their way onto a big league roster in 2015.
Right-Handed Relievers
11 of 12
| Casey Janssen | Burke Badenhop | Mike Adams | Jesse Crain |
| David Robertson | Joba Chamberlain | Matt Albers | Kyuji Fujikawa |
| Francisco Rodriguez | Jason Frasor | Jared Burton | Kevin Gregg |
| Sergio Romo | Luke Gregerson | Matt Belisle | Joel Hanrahan |
| Jason Grilli | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Luke Hochevar | |
| Pat Neshek | Dustin McGowan | Jim Johnson | |
| Rafael Soriano | Tim Stauffer | Matt Lindstrom | |
| Jose Veras | Nick Masset | ||
| Jamey Wright | Jason Motte | ||
| Brad Penny | |||
| Chris Perez | |||
| Sergio Santos |
If the Royals and Giants proved one thing with their respective runs to the World Series this past season, it's that having three or four dominant relievers to turn to in the late innings goes a long way once October rolls around.
David Robertson is the cream of the crop among this year's free-agent class, going 39-of-44 on save chances with a 3.08 ERA and 13.4 K/9 in his first season as the Yankees closer. The team made him a qualifying offer and will likely lock him up with a three- or four-year deal.
Behind him, veterans Casey Janssen, Francisco Rodriguez and Sergio Romo all have a good shot at landing multiyear deals to close for someone. Jason Grilli and Rafael Soriano also have closer experience, but they may be better suited in a setup role at this point.
Pat Neshek turned a minor league deal into an All-Star appearance this past season, and he heads a strong group of right-handed setup men that also includes Luke Gregerson, Jason Frasor, Joba Chamberlain and Burke Badenhop.
For value targets, Mike Adams was one of the best in the business before an injury-plagued two seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 36-year-old has a 2.41 career ERA in 408 appearances.
Guys like Jesse Crain, Joel Hanrahan and Luke Hochevar missed all of the 2014 season to injury and will likely have to settle for incentive-laden deals, but all three could play a key role in someone's bullpen. Hochevar in particular is an attractive buy-low target, as he had a 1.92 ERA in 58 appearances in 2013, his first full season as a reliever, before undergoing Tommy John surgery in March.
Left-Handed Relievers
12 of 12
| Andrew Miller | Joe Beimel | Craig Breslow | Sean Burnett |
| Phil Coke | Scott Downs | Rich Hill | |
| Neal Cotts | Tom Gorzelanny | ||
| Zach Duke | Franklin Morales | ||
| Joe Thatcher |
Once a can't-miss prospect as a starting pitcher who wound up missing badly, Andrew Miller is now one of the best lefty relievers in all of baseball, and he figures to be as hotly pursued as any free agent on the market. The 29-year-old made a career-high 73 appearances last season between the Red Sox and Orioles, posting a 2.02 ERA, 0.802 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 62.1 innings of work.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has the former No. 6 overall pick projected to sign a four-year, $32 million deal—big money for a non-closer, but hard to argue given his 2014 dominance.
For those who miss out on signing Miller, there are a number of second-tier options who should be able to help out.
Joe Beimel saw his first big league action since 2011 this past season, posting a 2.20 ERA in 56 appearances as a key part of a Mariners bullpen that was the best in baseball.
Neal Cotts enjoyed a similar comeback with the Rangers in 2013, and he had a 2.84 ERA and 9.3 K/9 in 131 appearances over the past two seasons.
Zach Duke finally seems to have settled into life as a reliever, posting a 2.45 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in 74 appearances for the Brewers last season, while veterans Phil Coke and Joe Thatcher are still capable options as well.
Craig Breslow and Scott Downs will be looking to bounce back after rough 2014 season and may have to settle for minor league deals, but that could set them up to be this year's Pat Neshek.
All standard and advanced stats (including WAR) courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
For all things baseball, follow me on Twitter:
.jpeg?w=480)
