Selecting the High-Risk, High-Reward MLB Free-Agent Team
My colleague, Matthew Smith, ranked the top 50 free agents available this offseason and is tracking the latest rumors and signings. My job here is to find the players on that list who come with the greatest risk combined with the greatest potential upside.
Some common themes you'll see are a player's ability to stay on the field and his projected cost compared to his potential ceiling—what the team gets if everything goes right versus the risks associated with the player the team is signing.
Playing catcher on this team of high-risk, high-reward players is...
Catcher: Russell Martin
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High-Risk
Age: Russell Martin will be a 32-year-old catcher on Opening Day of 2015. He's already played 1,163 regular-season games in the big leagues, so the question isn't about if he break down, it's about when.
Contract: FanGraphs believes Martin will land either a three- or four-year deal between $51 million and $56 million. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman believes Martin could land a five-year deal.
2014 Fluke?: Martin's slash line from 2009-2013 was .234/.332/.370. In 2014, the slash looked a lot better: .290/.402/.430. If teams pay for the 2014 line and expect to get it for three or four years, they won't be happy with the result.
High-Reward
Clubhouse Presence: While Martin's stat line will come down from his career season this year, his value in the clubhouse and to the pitching staff will remain sky high. Per Jenn Menendez of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said Martin was just as valuable as reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen this season, and Buster Olney (subscription required) recently called Martin the “Lamborghini of the catching market.”
Power: Even if the average and on-base percentage come back to Earth, Martin has hit double-digit home runs in each of the past four seasons, including 21 in 2012.
Extremely Thin Catcher's Market: The next best free-agent catcher is either Nick Hundley or Geovany Soto.
Prediction
Martin is my favorite free-agent hitter on the market this season...for the right price. If a team can sign him to a deal for three years or less for around $15 million annually, I think it will be one of the top signings of the offseason. However, due to the shortage of catchers on the market and his big 2014 season, I expect him to land around $60 million and not be worth the baggage that 32-year-old catchers inherently carry.
First Base: Michael Cuddyer
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High-Risk
Age: 36
Injury-Prone: Missed an average of 57 games over the last four seasons.
Splits: Career .267 hitter on the road vs. .297 at home (last two seasons at Coors Field).
High-Reward
Short-Term Deal: Likely will be had for one or two years at around $10 million.
All-Star-Level Production: When Michael Cuddyer is on the field, he's been great. In 2013, he won the NL batting title, and he backed it up this season with a career-high .579 slugging percentage (albeit in only 49 games).
Consistency: Since 2004, he's had only one season where he didn't eclipse 10 or more home runs. He's hit .260 or better in every season.
Prediction
Cuddyer is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward player on a short-term deal. If he's healthy, he'll be worth every penny and then some. However, if he's injured, like he has been over the past four seasons, his new team will wish it spent money on someone more reliable. For his type of production, he's worth the gamble.
Second Base: Jed Lowrie
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High-Risk
Injury-Prone: Since 2009, Jed Lowrie has played an average of 94 games every season.
Inconsistent Production: Double-digit home run totals in just two of his six full MLB seasons. Batting average higher than .280 in two out of his six full MLB seasons.
Cost: Lowrie recently said, via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, that money would be important for him regarding where he decides to sign this offseason. No blame should be placed on his shoulders, as I'd certainly do the same thing, but paying more for Lowrie just means more risk. Jane Lee of MLB.com mentioned her thoughts and that Lowrie's price tag could also come with a draft pick:
"Beane has yet to speak with Lowrie's camp, though it's expected the sides will at least have a discussion. The A's could potentially present him a qualifying offer that, if rejected, would net them a compensation Draft pick from the team that signs him. But Lowrie, 30, is likely eying a multiyear deal.
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High-Reward
Potential: In 2012 and 2013, Lowrie hit 16 and 15 home runs, respectively. In his three previous seasons combined, he hit 17, and this past year, he hit only six. In addition, Lowrie hit .287 in 2010 and .290 in his breakout season with the Oakland Athletics in 2013. If he clicks and combines that power and average, his new team will have itself an offseason steal.
Versatility: While he doesn't want to switch back and forth, according to Lee, Lowrie is willing to play either second base or shortstop for his new team. He has played 489 career games at short and 58 games at second, as well as 83 games at third base and 11 at first.
Prediction
FanGraphs believes Lowrie will end up with something close to a three-year, $30 million deal. I'd stay away from a long-term commitment, but if it's a buyer's market and Lowrie could be had on a one-year deal, I'd jump all over it.
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Third Base: Aramis Ramirez
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High-Risk
Injury-Prone: Over the past two seasons, Aramis Ramirez has missed 99 games.
Age: Ramirez will turn 37 next June.
Power Declining: 27 home runs combined in 2013 and 2014 after hitting 27 in the 2012 season alone (and nine other times in his career).
Questionable Defense: FanGraphs had him as a plus defender this year, but over the course of his career, he's been below average.
High-Reward
Production: Yes, his power is declining, but the man can still swing it. The 2014 All-Star led the NL in doubles in 2012, not to mention his .540 slugging percentage. In addition, he had a higher ISO than World Series hero Pablo Sandoval, who is going to get a handsome contract this offseason.
Consistency: Ramirez ranks ninth all time among third basemen in home runs, 10th in doubles and 10th in RBI.
Prediction
Casey McGehee and Conor Gillaspie were in the top five in batting average among third basemen this year. You'd think a good hitting third baseman is something worth reaching for right? Yes, me too.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Ramirez may not be everybody's top third base target. He's old. He's not flashy. But the man produces. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted he'd sign a two-year deal between $26 million and $30 million. If a team can get him on a one- or two-year deal, its fanbase should be thrilled.
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez
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High-Risk
Injury-Prone: Hanley Ramirez has missed an average of 46 games over the past four seasons.
Declining Production: Over the past five seasons, he's had a slugging percentage higher than .500 percent just once.
Below-Average Fielder: Playing one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond, Ramirez has graded out as a below-average shortstop four of the last five seasons, according to FanGraphs. Because of this, Paul Swydan of FanGraphs (subscription required) suggested he should move to third base. Whether he signs as a shortstop or a third baseman, his defense will be a question mark.
High-Reward
MVP Potential: His production may be declining, but Ramirez's 2013 season shows us what he can do when healthy: .345 batting average, .638 slugging percentage and 20 home runs in just 86 games.
Age: It seems like he's been around forever, but Ramirez is turning just 31 years old this winter. He has some prime years left in that bat if he can stay in the lineup.
Prediction
There's a reason FanGraphs ranked Ramirez the top hitter available this offseason. The site predicts he will get a five-year deal worth between $80 million and $90 million, not to mention having a first-round pick attached to him if the Los Angeles Dodgers extend a qualifying offer. All of his upside is nice, but for that price, I need something with a little less risk.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz
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High-Risk
PED History: Served a 50-game suspension at the end of the 2013 season after violating the league's drug policy.
Injury-Prone: Since his first full season in 2009, Nelson Cruz has missed an average of 31 games each season, topping 130 games just twice.
Home/Road Splits: .287 batting average and .540 slugging percentage at home. .250 batting average and .467 slugging percentage on the road.
Age: Cruz will turn 35 in the middle of next season. If he signs a four- or five-year deal, the back-end production could get Jason Bay-type ugly.
Terrible Defense: FanGraphs has him pegged as a below-average defensive outfielder in each of the past four seasons.
High-Reward
Reigning Home Run King: Each of the past six seasons, he's hit more than 22 homers, including an MLB-best 40 this season.
Proven Playoff Producer: Some fold under the bright lights against the best competition, but Cruz has proved time and again that he will produce in October.
Prediction
FanGraphs predicts Cruz will land a three-year deal for around $45 million. If I were an NL general manager, I wouldn't sign him. But for an AL team that can stash him at DH and put his 30 homers in the 3-4-5 spot in the lineup, I'd make that gamble every day of the week and twice Sunday.
Outfield: Colby Rasmus
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High-Risk
Injury-Prone: Since 2011, Colby Rasmus has played about 126 games each year, topping 129 games just once.
Splits: Career .213 hitter vs. left-handed pitching.
Increasing Strikeout Rate: Rasmus' strikeout percentage has increased in each of the past four seasons, from 22.1 percent in 2011 to an alarming 33 percent this past season.
High-Reward
Age: Rasmus turned 28 this past August, so his prime years are ahead of him.
Power: Double-digit home runs in each of his six MLB seasons, including 63 combined from 2012-2014. His ISO in each of the past two seasons is the highest it has been in his career, so he's trending up.
Defense: This past season, Rasmus did not grade well in center field, according to FanGraphs. But in 2013, he graded out as the ninth-best defensive outfielder in all of baseball.
Projected Contract: Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors believes Rasmus can be had on a one-year deal for around $12 million. Considering the dwindling power market (I'll elaborate more on the next slide), Rasmus may be undervalued.
Prediction
Considering the lack of certainty in this free-agent market, I think Rasmus is one of the best risky bets among the outfielders, especially on a one-year deal.
The rest of the second-tier market is as follows: Nick Markakis, Alex Rios, Melky Cabrera, Nori Aoki and Michael Morse, among others. Do any of them overwhelm you? I'd rather have the player heading into his prime with 20-homer power who I hope will rebound and give me good defense in center field.
Worst case, he's gone after 2015.
Right Field: Yasmany Tomas
8 of 11High-Risk
$100 Million Contract: My colleague, Mike Rosenbaum, broke down one of Cuba's most prolific hitters, Yasmany Tomas, and noted that multiple outlets believe he will receive a deal north of $100 million.
High-Reward
Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu: We've seen what the likes of these two can do. Tomas is reportedly 23 years old, and if he comes close to what Puig and Abreu have done early in their careers, he will be well worth the price.
Prediction
Power in baseball is dwindling. There were only 11 players last season who hit 30 or more home runs. In 2004, that number was three times as high, with 33 players hitting 30 or more. Baseball America's Ben Badler wrote a profile on Tomas praising his raw power:
"A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne. He has some experience in center field and is a decent runner for his size, but his speed is still below-average and he’s going to be a corner outfielder in pro ball.
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Tomas is as high-risk as we get this offseason, but I'd spend every penny to get him.
Right-Handed Pitcher: Ervin Santana
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High-Risk
Contract-Year Stats: Is there a coincidence that two of Ervin Santana's best statistical seasons came in 2013 and 2014, when he was a pending free agent? I'd have my concerns.
Inconsistent: Santana has three years with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. His career ERA is 4.17 with a 1.28 career WHIP.
High-Reward
Innings-Eater: Unlike the starter on the next slide, Santana's new team will get a guy it can rely on. Over the past five seasons, Santana has averaged 207 innings pitched and 12 wins.
Age: Santana will be 32 in December and coming off a season in which he posted his highest K/9 rate (8.2) since 2008. There could still be room for improvement.
Prediction
The Atlanta Braves are expected to extend Santana a qualifying offer, according to David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which will drive up the already high cost if he declines it. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Santana could land a four-year, $56 million deal.
As Ubaldo Jimenez showed us this season, signing inconsistent mid-tier starting pitchers to long-term deals doesn't always work out. I'd pass on Santana.
Left-Handed Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
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High-Risk
Inconsistent: From 2008-2012, Francisco Liriano went 40-49 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. After moving to the NL these last two seasons, he went 23-18 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. And he finished the second half of this past season with a sparkling 2.20 ERA to remind us of the up-and-coming All-Star he was back in 2006 with the Minnesota Twins in his first full season.
Injury-Prone: Liriano has never topped 200 innings, making 30 or more starts just twice in his career.
High-Reward
Ace Potential: I touched on it above, but Liriano has proved that when healthy, he is a formidable ace. His career K/9 is 9.2, and he finished ninth in the NL CY Young race in 2013.
Age: Liriano is just 31 years old and, due to his injury-riddled past, doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm. If he stays healthy, he should have plenty of bullets left.
Prediction
FanGraphs predicts Liriano will land a three-year deal worth about $36 million to $40 million. If I had to choose between him and the likes of Jason Hammel, Jake Peavy and Brandon McCarthy (his fellow free agents this offseason), I'd take Liriano and his upside in a heartbeat.
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
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High-Risk
Age/Mileage: While he's turning only 33 in January, Francisco Rodriguez has 799 career regular-season games pitched over his 13-year career. Relievers are inconsistent by nature, and all of those innings will take a toll at some point.
2014 Fluke?: Over the 2012 and 2013 seasons, Rodriguez had a 3.72 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP with 13 saves. Those are serviceable numbers but nothing near his 2014 season, which included 44 saves, a 3.04 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.
High-Reward
Consistency: He averages 69 innings per season over his 13-year career, not to mention a spiffy 2.74 ERA.
Ability to Adjust: No, K-Rod is not the flamethrower he once was, as his fastball is down about 4 mph since his glory days with the Los Angeles Angels, according to FanGraphs. However, hit strikeout rate hasn't suffered—last season it was still at 9.7 per nine innings—and he even trimmed his walk rate to 2.4 per nine innings, down about three walks per nine innings since his All-Star season with the New York Mets in 2007.
Prediction
Two elite closers, Joe Nathan and Fernando Rodney, landed two-year deals last offseason, despite being older than K-Rod will be this year. A prediction from Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors is in line with those contracts, predicting K-Rod will land a two-year, $14 million deal. While he likely won't reach his 2014 numbers, getting a proven closer who has thrived in high-pressure situations for that type of deal is a risk worth taking.
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