World Series 2014: Odds and Predictions for Royals vs. Giants Game 3
Someone is going to take control of the 2014 World Series on Friday, and they will probably score seven runs in the process.
The San Francisco Giants won Game 1 by the score of 7-1, but the Kansas City Royals returned the favor with a 7-2 victory in Game 2. Perhaps we can get to triple sevens from the winner, which would be somewhat ironic considering we are about to introduce World Series odds that you may want to try your luck with on Friday.
Guess what the over/under line is for Game 3?
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Yep, seven.
With that in mind, here is a look at the odds and other relevant information, courtesy of Odds Shark as of Thursday night, before we dig into a Game 3 preview.
| Friday, Oct. 24 | Royals at Giants | 8:07 p.m. | FOX | SF -1.5 | 7 |
Preview/Prediction
Tim Hudson will take the mound for the Giants against the Royals’ Jeremy Guthrie in Game 3.
Incredibly, Hudson will be making his first career World Series start after 214 regular-season victories. The following chart, courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN.com, notes that he is the sixth-winningest pitcher in MLB history to make his first World Series start:
| 1903 | Cy Young BOS | 379 |
| 1924 | Walter Johnson WSH | 377 |
| 2008 | Jamie Moyer PHI | 246 |
| 1909 | Vic Willis PIT | 240 |
| 1929 | Jack Quinn PHA | 230 |
| 2014 | Tim Hudson SF | 214 |
On the season, Hudson finished with a 9-13 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .270 batting average against. It certainly wasn’t the best season of his impressive career, but he has pitched effectively in the playoffs with 3.29 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a .259 batting average against and 13 strikeouts in 13.2 innings pitched.
It is only natural to wonder if his health has anything to do with the improved numbers since he went 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA in five starts in September with an injured hip. Manager Bruce Bochy suggested as much, according to Josh Dubow of The Associated Press, via ABC News:
“It's hard enough to play this game when you're healthy, but when you're pitching and your hip's bothering you a little bit — and he's a warrior. He was never complaining. He was never making excuses, but it was a fact. I think it was affecting him a little bit.”
As for Guthrie, he finished the season with a 13-11 record, 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and a .272 batting average against. While those are not exactly head-turning numbers, he was basically lights out in his five innings of postseason work in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.
He allowed a single run in five innings of a no-decision and has an official playoff stat line of 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a .167 batting average against.
It will be worth keeping an eye on Guthrie and his durability, though, because that start was his only one in the past four weeks. Fortunately for Guthrie and the Royals, he has a stellar bullpen with Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis there to pick up the slack if he can’t go deep in the game.
The other thing to watch in Friday’s showdown outside of the pitching matchup is the shift to San Francisco’s AT&T Park.
Park factors on ESPN.com points out that AT&T Park had the lowest home run park factor in baseball at 0.677, which means the stadium only allowed two-thirds as many long balls as an average park. That can be at least partially attributed to the extra space in the outfield.
That may not be a problem for the visiting Royals, though, considering no team in the league finished with fewer home runs. Kansas City's offense relies on its speed, athleticism and timely hitting over the home run, so the dimensions may actually play in its favor.
Giants pitcher Jeremy Affeldt didn’t think the park would be an issue for the Royals either, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com, “That's an athletic team over there. So I think they can make adjustments. I don't think we'll go in thinking that they're at a disadvantage because of not being at our ballpark.”
The thought here is that the Royals play the perfect game for AT&T Park and stick to the same formula they used in Guthrie’s last start and throughout the postseason.
Kansas City will find the grass in the outfield a couple times early and scrap together some runs off Hudson behind its speed on the basepaths.
From there, Guthrie will be trusted to turn the lead over to the shutdown bullpen by the sixth inning. The formula has worked all postseason for the Royals, as not a single starter has advanced past the seventh inning and they have only lost once. There is no reason to think that will change on Friday, as long as Guthrie doesn't get lit up like James Shields did in Game 1.
He won't, and the Royals will find a way to win in AT&T Park on Friday.
Prediction: Royals 4, Giants 2
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