Week 7 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

Week 7 of the NFL season brings an unusually tight group of matchups, as there are no double-digit favorites on the schedule.  That may make picking games straight up more difficult, but it also offers bettors an opportunity to exploit matchups where they see an underrated edge for a particular team.

That also includes some interesting over/under possibilities, which often prove as difficult to bet as picking against the spread.  Highlighting the Week 7 odds and over/under line from Odds Shark, let's pinpoint some of the best bets as Sunday approaches.

Matchup (Spread)	Time (ET)	O/U	Pick ATS	Pick O/U
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)	1 p.m.	49.5	Ravens	Under
Tennessee Titans at Washington (-5.5)	1 p.m.	46	Titans	Under
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at St. Louis Rams	1 p.m.	43	Seahawks	Over
Cleveland Browns (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	44.5	Browns	Under
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	1 p.m.	50	Bengals	Over
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-7)	1 p.m.	42.5	Vikings	Under
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3)	1 p.m.	48	Bears	Over
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-1)	1 p.m.	48	Lions	Under
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)	1 p.m.	50	Panthers	Over
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-5.5)	4:05 p.m.	45	Chargers	Over
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Oakland Raiders	4:25 p.m.	44.5	Cardinals	Over
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	4:25 p.m.	47.5	Giants	Over
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7)	8:30 p.m.	49	Broncos	Over
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	44.5	Steelers	Under

Spread Picks

Titans (+5.5) over Washington

In a matchup of two floundering teams, it is puzzling that Washington is such a sizable favorite.  Regardless of whether Jake Locker returns to the lineup for the Titans, there are reasons to believe that Tennessee could not only cover this line, but also win straight up.

Kirk Cousins' issues with turnovers are well-documented, and the Titans have picked off 3.3 percent of opposing passes, good for seventh in the league, per TeamRankings.com.  Moreover, Cousins' eight picks this year have come at the worst possible moments:

With plodding veteran Shonn Greene out of the lineup, rookie Bishop Sankey will receive an opportunity to exploit a Washington linebacking crew that could be without starting inside backer Perry Riley.  Look for the rookie and slot receiver Kendall Wright to exploit favorable matchups as the Titans keep this game close.

Seahawks (-7) over Rams

The Seahawks have been uncharacteristically shaky on offense this season, but the Rams could provide a nice antidote to those issues.  St. Louis' much-ballyhooed defensive line looked like arguably the most fearsome unit in the league before the season.  But saying that the pass rush has disappointed would be remarkably generous; in fact, the Rams have been historically incompetent in sacking quarterbacks:

"

Rams are first team since 1964 (as far as STATS can check) with 1 or fewer sacks through their first 5 games. (via @nflnetwork research)

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) October 14, 2014"

Seattle's line has had issues protecting Russell Wilson, as the Seahawks rank 23rd in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack metric.  Part of that stems from Wilson's tendency to break the pocket too quickly, but when the Seahawks' play-action bootleg and roll-out concepts fail, there is not a reliable Plan B.

However, the Seahawks should receive enough time to let their vertical passing concepts develop.  Coupled with the defense facing promising yet turnover-prone Rams quarterback Austin Davis, this line feels a couple points too low.

Over/Under Picks

Over (44.5) on Cardinals vs. Raiders

The "Carson Palmer Revenge Bowl" should be a higher-scoring affair than the 44.5-point combined total suggests.  It is not difficult to imagine Arizona scoring in the high 20s or low 30s; Oakland's defense ranks 27th in DVOA, and the Cardinals scored 30 points in Palmer's return to the lineup last week.

However, Derek Carr's continued emergence could allow the Raiders to score enough points on a depleted Arizona defense to push this to the overs.  The Fresno State product came into the league with concerns about his mechanics and pocket presence, but in demonstrating impressive poise under pressure and a willingness to take deep shots to his tall receivers, Carr has suggested that he will fare better than his older brother did:

Arizona does possess the physical press-coverage corners to combat the big Oakland receivers, but even if the likes of Andre Holmes and James Jones are contained, the Raiders could feed Darren McFadden the ball after he rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries last week.  Playing at home, expect Oakland to score just enough (high teens, low 20s) to push this one on the overs.

Under (49.5) on Falcons vs. Ravens

The key to this matchup is how well Atlanta's offense can travel on the road.  Over the past two seasons, the Falcons have averaged just 20.5 points per game in eight outdoor road contests, losing each of those games, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Baltimore's ragged secondary may seem like an enticing matchup for Julio Jones and Roddy White, but the Ravens possess a massive advantage on the front seven that should nullify whatever edge the Falcons possess on the perimeter.  With a trio of excellent pass-rushers and stalwarts C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith in the middle, it is difficult to imagine the Falcons' injury-plagued offensive line providing Matt Ryan enough time:

The Ravens offense may have appeared explosive against Tampa Bay last week, but before that matchup, they were averaging a roughly league-average 5.6 yards per play.  Thus, assuming the Ravens can clamp down on Ryan and Co., it is difficult to imagine the Ravens scoring enough to push this line to the overs.