NFL Picks and Predictions Week 6: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosOct 11, 2014

Can you feel it in the air?

My fellow members of #TeamDegenerate, the splendor and wonderment of an NFL Sunday is almost at hand. 12 hours of gambling bliss await.

I can't wait for it.

The Week 6 slate of games is excellent and features numerous opportunities to cash in and beat the books. While I didn't feel confident about Week 5, I feel good about Week 6. I'm ready to rock.

As always, I'll provide you with picks against the spread for every game, a survivor lock of the week, five best bets and four over/under plays.

It's time to get set for the action.

Here is my ultimate bettor's guide to NFL Week 6.

Total Season ATS: 40-35-2 (including Indianapolis this past Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 14-11

Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis at Houston

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David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Final Score: Indianapolis 33, Houston 28 (Indianapolis covers minus-2.5)

This was an easy game to predict.

One team employs Andrew Luck at quarterback, and the other trots out Ryan Fitzpatrick. Does anything else need to be said?

When the Texans got the ball at the end of the game down by five, was there any doubt that Fitzpatrick was going to turn it over? I felt like I was watching a horror movie and the blonde teenager walked into the house inhabited by the killer. It was only a matter of time before the inevitable happened.

By the way: As much as I love watching Luck (and the man crush is strong), I might enjoy Texans defensive end J.J. Watt even more. He is an absolute beast and looks likely to run away with Defensive Player of the Year honors. Right now, he'd be my choice for league MVP.

But on Thursday night, Luck was too good. He's so excellent that he makes the Colts a Super Bowl contender despite the rest of the roster being questionable at best.

Aside from Indianapolis, the AFC South is weak. As in the weakest division in football—and it's not even close.

That means that every time the Colts play an opponent from the AFC South, the only play is to roll with Luck and company.

I hope you did that this past Thursday.

I know I did.

Green Bay at Miami

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Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Line: Green Bay -3

Hey, everyone! It's the Joe Philbin Bowl!

On Sunday, when the Packers and Dolphins do battle in Miami, it'll be the first time that Philbin—the current Dolphins head coach—will face his former team, Green Bay, where he served as the offensive coordinator from 2007-2011.

And after the game is over, he'll probably wish he hadn't.

I debated pulling the upset with Miami, but I just can't go against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Ever since he told the Green Bay faithful to "R-E-L-A-X" on his radio show (h/t ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky), Rodgers has thrown seven touchdown passes against zero interceptions—and for those not versed in basic arithmetic, that's pretty good.

While the Dolphins will present a greater defensive challenge than either Chicago or Minnesota (Rodgers' last two victims), the Packers have the receivers to get the job done. And at the end of the day, I have more faith and confidence in Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers than I do in Philbin and Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

The Packers will win a close game and cover the spread.

The Pick: Green Bay -3

New England at Buffalo

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Jose Juarez/Associated Press

Line: New England at Buffalo (+3)

Everyone has a friend that they wish could just get it together.

You know who I'm talking about: The guy who just can't catch a break. The dude that falls in love with a girl only to have her tear his heart out in sinister fashion. The guy who is up for the promotion at work but is seemingly always passed over.

After a while, you sort of give up hope that the person will ever find success and just go on with your own life. But one day, you find out that he landed his dream girl. You learn that he got the big raise and corner office. All of a sudden, his life has turned around, and it makes you feel good.

The Buffalo Bills are that friend.

After 14 years without the postseason—and the specter of the team potentially leaving Western New York looming large—the Bills are starting to rack up victories, both on and off the field.

The Bills have a new owner in local billionaire Terry Pegula, who has vowed to keep them in Buffalo. The head coach, Doug Marrone, showed a ton of moxie in benching his awful quarterback, EJ Manuel, in favor of Kyle Orton. The team is 3-2 and will host the big, bad Patriots in Week 6, with the winner claiming sole possession of first place in the AFC East.

And the Bills are going to get the job done.

The karmic snowball has begun to roll downhill, and it's fixing to evolve into an avalanche. The Bills defensive line will overpower New England's offensive line and frustrate Tom Brady. Orton will avoid the big mistake and get the ball in the hands of electric rookie receiver Sammy Watkins.

For three hours on Sunday, the crowd at Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to be bloodthirsty, and when it's all said and done, they're going to be jubilant.

That's because after 15 long years, their friend—the Buffalo Bills—has started to win at life.

Forget the points. Give me Marrone, Orton, Pegula and the Bills to win outright.

The Pick: Buffalo (+3)

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Carolina at Cincinnati

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MIKE MCCARN/Associated Press

Line: Carolina at Cincinnati (-7)

This is a puzzling line.

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a stirring comeback win over the Bears, while the Cincinnati Bengals just got smacked around in prime time by the Patriots.

So why are the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home?

I'm not going to overthink this one or let Vegas pull a Jedi mind trick on me. These are the droids I'm looking for, damn it!

Cam Newton is playing outstanding football, and the Panthers have a solid defense. Plus, star receiver A.J. Green won't be suiting up for the Bengals.

I like Cincinnati to win a close game, but Newton will keep the Panthers within striking distance and keep the game close right down to the wire.

The Pick: Carolina (+7)

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

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Wade Payne/Associated Press

Line: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2)

Is Week 6 too early to hit the eject button on a preseason prediction?

If it is, I don't care. Because for the last six months, I've been the driver of the Pittsburgh Steelers bandwagon. Hell, I built the damn thing.

Both here and on Twitter, I've been trumpeting the Steelers as the 2014 AFC North champions. I've told anyone with two ears that would listen that Pittsburgh would be back in the postseason. I've been adamant that the black and yellow are back, baby!

And I've been wrong on all counts.

While the Steelers are 3-2, they haven't exactly been impressive in doing so. And on Sunday, they'll take on a plucky Browns squad that has the look and feel of a contender.

The Cleveland fans will be rabid. Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer is quickly becoming a folk hero. The outstanding offensive line will pummel the Steelers defensive front.

I'm sorry, Pittsburgh. I might have built the Steelers bandwagon with my bare, calloused hands, but I've had enough.

I'm out.

The Pick: Cleveland (-2)

Detroit at Minnesota

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Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Line: Detroit at Minnesota (+1.5)

Take a look at the above picture.

That face belongs to Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. And last Thursday night in Green Bay, he was not a happy camper.

You see, Bridgewater was coming off the first start of his NFL career, a 41-28 home triumph over the Falcons. He was excellent in that game, giving Vikings fans hope for the future.

But an ankle injury he suffered against Atlanta left him unable to play the following Thursday night, so Bridgewater was forced to watch from the sideline as third-stringer Christian Ponder bumbled and stumbled through 60 unwatchable minutes, setting quarterback play back at least 50 years.

For the last 10 days, Bridgewater has surely been champing at the bit to return to the gridiron. He wants—nay, he needs—to get the images of Ponder's gruesome decision-making out of his head.

And he'll do just that on Sunday against a Lions team that could be without star receiver Calvin Johnson.

Give me Bridgewater, Mike Zimmer and the Vikings to pull off the home upset over the Lions.

And I'll take the "over" on Matthew Stafford interceptions, thank you very much.

The Pick: Minnesota (+1.5)

Denver at NY Jets

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Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Line: Denver at NY Jets (+8.5)

In Week 2, I picked the Jets to cover the spread against the Packers and thought there was a chance I'd be hauled off to a psychiatric ward as a result.

Lo and behold, Gang Green actually stayed within the number and made me look pretty smart, thank you very much.

While the intelligent move would be to never tempt fate again by picking the Jets in an iffy situation, I'm going back to the well. I'm taking the Jets to cover the spread against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos!

Now, before the men in the white jackets arrive and declare me crazy, let me share my reasoning.

First of all, it's too many points. The Jets are playing at home. Rex Ryan's defenses might not always beat Manning, but they at least give him some issues. Plus, this is the proverbial "back against the wall" game for a team in disarray.

I know that the Jets are an embarrassing clown show. I'm fully aware that when Ryan told reporters backup quarterback Michael Vick had "guts" for saying he wasn't prepared to play last week, he should have been wearing white face paint, a red nose and a flower that shoots out water. I understand that the Jets are the weaker team.

But this is about pride, and the Jets will be ready to play.

Don't get me wrong—the Broncos are going to win the game. But the Jets will keep it within a touchdown.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I gotta bounce. The dudes with the white coats are here.

The Pick: NY Jets (+8.5)

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

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Evan Vucci/Associated Press

Line: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

A fun gambling exercise that I engage in each and every week is to flip the line and see if I feel the same way about the result.

To do this, simply move the line six points depending on the home team. This means that if the Ravens and Buccaneers were playing in Baltimore instead of Tampa Bay, the Ravens would be minus-9.5.

So, if the game was in Baltimore and the Ravens were minus-9.5 against Mike Glennon and the Buccaneers, would you feel confident about laying the points?

I would.

That means the Ravens are the pick on the road at minus-3.5.

The Pick: Baltimore (-3.5)

Jacksonville at Tennessee

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Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Line: Jacksonville at Tennessee (-6)

Sunday's game between the hapless Jaguars and inept Titans will be positively gross. An affront to football. A disgrace to the legends that came before us.

And when two terrible teams meet, #TeamDegenerate members know what to do.

Take those points and don't look back, yo.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+6)

San Diego at Oakland

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Ben Margot/Associated Press

Line: San Diego at Oakland (+7)

This past week, Oakland Raiders interim coach Tony Sparano (replacing the deposed and clueless Dennis Allen) held a funeral for a football, hoping to galvanize his winless team for the remainder of the season.

What Sparano should have done is hold a funeral for his own team and then a second one for his chances of landing the job on a permanent basis.

The Raiders are horrendous. They have no talent. The SEC has teams that would produce more fantasy football starters than Oakland.

Conversely, the San Diego Chargers are the belle of the ball and the love of my life. I take them every week to cover the spread (both here and in the Hilton SuperContest, where I'm sponsored by my good friends over at Odds Shark), and they always come through for me.

I'm a loyal dude. I stick by the people I love. The Chargers could be playing basketball against the San Antonio Spurs, and I'd bet on Philip Rivers and company—such is my adoration for them.

This one is going to be ugly. The Chargers are going to thrash the Raiders. It might as well be a funeral.

Remember, #TeamDegenerate members: Winners bet with streaks. Losers go against them.

And when it's all said and done, I'll be singing to myself:

San Diego...Super Chargers! San Diego...Chargers! Charge!

The Pick: San Diego (-7)

Washington at Arizona

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Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Line: Washington at Arizona (-3)

I want to be very clear about this.

If Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton starts at quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, this game will not be close. The Cardinals will win by double digits and represent a fantastic value pick at the current spread (-3).

But—and this is a major but—if third-string passer Logan Thomas is under center for the #Birdgang, the Redskins will pull the upset.

Why is that? Because Thomas isn't any good. Because he barely looked like a functional quarterback in the ACC. Because he threw 29 interceptions over his final two seasons at Virginia Tech.

I know that Thomas is a favorite of Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, and regular readers of this column know I have a man crush on Arians. But Thomas isn't ready for prime time. I have no doubt in Arians' wizardry and firmly believe he could help Thomas evolve into an NFL-caliber quarterback.

But that time is not now.

If Palmer or Stanton starts, play the Cardinals with supreme confidence.

If Thomas starts, I'm not sure the Cardinals would beat Florida State.

The Pick: Arizona (-3) (if Palmer or Stanton starts) | Washington (+3) (if Thomas starts)

Chicago at Atlanta

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Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Line: Chicago at Atlanta (-3.5)

As of right now, both the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons are bad football teams.

Both squads feature explosive offenses and defenses that couldn't stop a nosebleed.

Vegas did us a favor by adding the hook (that extra half-point) to the line. It made the decision a lot easier.

Take the points and thank me on Monday morning.

The Pick: Chicago (+3.5)

Dallas at Seattle

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John Froschauer/Associated Press

Line: Dallas at Seattle (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have been the NFL's most pleasant surprise this season.

Through five weeks, Jason Garrett is my coach of the year. DeMarco Murray is in the mix for NFL MVP. The defense has been better than expected.

I admit it, Cowboys fans: I was dead wrong about your team.

With that said, there is no chance the Cowboys go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks. There's a better shot of going back in time and having Tony Romo not botch the hold in the 2006 NFC Wild Card Game than Dallas winning outright on Sunday.

My No. 1 gambling mantra for this season is to take the Seahawks at home, regardless of the spread and opponent.

Sorry, Dallas. You're walking into the lion's den.

And you ain't coming out alive.

The Pick: Seattle (-7.5)

Sunday Night Football: NY Giants at Philadelphia

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Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Line: NY Giants at Philadelphia (-3)

This week, there's been a ton of trash talk between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles in advance of Sunday night's showdown in the City of Brotherly Love.

As #TeamDegenerate members surely know, I am a lifelong New Yorker. I don't need to say I'm a proud New Yorker, because anyone from New York is aware that we live in the greatest city in the history of organized civilization.

On Sunday night, the Giants will prove their superiority over the Eagles. Big Blue is the better team with the better defense and hotter quarterback (and I'm talking on-field play here, you degenerate).

Forget the points. Give me the Giants to win outright.

Let's hear it for New York, people.

The Pick: NY Giants (+3)

Monday Night Football: San Francisco at St. Louis

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Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Line: San Francisco at St. Louis (+3.5)

I'll admit it: Part of me wants to take the St. Louis Rams at plus-3.5 on Monday night against San Francisco.

I love prime-time home underdogs, and Rams undrafted rookie quarterback Austin Davis has been a revelation. He authored my favorite backdoor cover of the season last week, leading a late charge to close within the number in Philadelphia (St. Louis was plus-seven and lost 34-28).

But let's be real. The 49ers are the better team with the better coach, quarterback and defense.

Where in the hell has the Rams' pass rush gone? Through four games, St. Louis has only managed one sack on the season—one!—despite possessing a cavalcade of talent along the front four. How is that even possible?

I can't take the Rams. I refuse. I won't do it.

I'm taking the better team.

Give me the 49ers—with confidence.

The Pick: San Francisco (-3.5)