Fantasy Football Week 6: Buying or Selling Top Injured Players

I don't have a crystal ball, but if I did, I'd probably drop it and break it, like, instantly. I had a magic eight ball once, but I always asked it silly questions. I've read my fair share of fortunes in my day from fortune cookies, but I always got the impression they weren't terribly specific. I have a hard time maintaining a straight face while I listen to someone talk about their horoscope. I don't trust the Old Farmer's Almanac.

The point I'm trying to make here is that I can neither see the future nor am I particularly interested in knowing what comes next. Live in the moment and all that jazz, you know? Which means I can't tell you how certain players are going to react to injuries. I'm no Nostradamus. 

What I can do, however, is surmise whether you should buy or sell certain players dealing with injuries given their relative fantasy value, the potential length of the injury and any other factors. So while they say you shouldn't kick a man while he's down, nobody ever said anything about selling him off while he's injured. 
 

Buying: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

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Two weeks ago, Calvin Johnson was a decoy. Last week, he had to leave the game after re-aggravating his ankle injury. This week, it's hard to imagine Megatron playing, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

The following excerpt from Johnson, per Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com, probably influenced Birkett's line of thinking:

But yes, I'm still buying.

Look, you might be without Johnson for one week, maybe two. But we're still talking about a player who had 44 fantasy points through the first three weeks this season. We're still talking about the guy who finished third among wide receivers in fantasy points last year, and that was while battling various bumps and bruises.

Yes, the increasing amount of injuries is concerning. But so is the idea of selling low on Johnson, only to watch him absolutely blow up once he returns and is healthy. With a player of Megatron's stature, you have to bite the bullet and wait out his injury woes. 

Buying: Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints

Bill Haber/Associated Press

If you were even considering selling off Jimmy Graham, which is just crazy, please heed the following words.

"It is considered to be a sprained shoulder," Adam Schefter said on Monday's NFL Live of the injury that forced Graham to leave Sunday's game early, per Rotoworld. "It is not considered to be a serious injury."  

So there you have it. Even if it was somewhat serious, he'd have a bye week to rest and recuperate. 

Graham has had a somewhat slow start to the season, sure, but his 51 fantasy points are still third among tight ends. If there's an owner out there getting antsy over his start or injury history, you might be able to twist their arm and land the game's elite tight end.

Hey, it's worth a shot!

Selling: Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos

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Perhaps if Montee Ball was tearing things up to this point in the season, I wouldn't be concerned with losing him for several weeks. But even before he was lost in Week 5 to an injury, he was averaging just 7.3 fantasy points per week and wasn't having the sort of breakthrough season that Knowshon Moreno experienced in 2013 in Denver's offense.

It's possible that Ball will blow up, of course, and his 13 points in Week 1 and eight points in Week 2 were solid outputs. But Ball simply hasn't resembled the RB1 that many folks drafted him to be, and now he could miss the rest of the month due to injury.

Can you afford to sit on him for that time and hope he becomes an RB1 upon his return? Certainly. Might now be a good time to cut ties, even if you are selling a bit low? Absolutely.

Buying: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

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This could easily become a "selling" situation depending on how serious A.J. Green's recent injury turns out to be. Coley Harvey of ESPN had an update on Wednesday afternoon:

That doesn't sound great. Of course, Green has battled with a toe injury for much of the season and has still posted double-digit points in the three games he's started this year, so I wouldn't worry too much about the elite receiver just yet.

If this injury ends up being serious, we can all panic. For now, hold tight to this WR1.

Buying: Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants

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Andre Williams might tear things up in the next two weeks. He's certainly been pretty good in the past two weeks with 25 fantasy points for owners, albeit in garbage time and in relief of the injured Jennings last week. 

But he isn't going to win the starting job while Jennings is down with an injury. Far from it. He's the better receiving option, the better blocker and, oh yeah, he has 505 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns this season. He's played quite well.

So yes, I'm buying. Sure, I know I won't have him for three weeks, but once the Giants come off the bye and return to action in Week 9, Jennings should continue tearing it up and earning his high-end RB2 designation. If the Jennings owner in your league is struggling and needs help now, try to steal Jennings off of him or her for a bargain.

Selling: Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions

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Even if both of these players weren't battling knocks and even if they do play this week, I'm selling here. Once again they're splitting reps but, unlike last year, neither one has been very good for fantasy owners, with Bush totaling 31 points and Bell offering just 24.

The Lions simply aren't a great running team, and with Matt Stafford at the helm and a ton of weapons to utilize in the passing game, why would they be? 

Again, you're selling low here, but this sure looks like a sinking ship for fantasy owners. Jump off now and salvage what you can in return for selling.

All point totals and points-against statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues. 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and make some corny jokes, too. It's more fun than Russell Wilson imitating a chicken with its head cut off.