NFL Week 6 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Putting together the over/under lines during NFL season is like pulling out your own teeth. There's no method to it, and it will be painful. Unlike pulling your own molars out, guessing correctly with football games gives you bragging rights over anyone who dared challenge you. 

Week 6 odds are particularly interesting to examine because we have at least four games of evidence to judge teams by, and most matchups are between good teams. Sure, you'll have the likely blowouts (Denver vs. New York Jets), but good luck finding another one you can definitively say is a mismatch. 

One thing the NFL has going for it is the unknown. We have ideas about who the best teams are, but our response changes each week because games tell their own story. When you have too much time between games, all that's left is the analysis. 

Here are our over/under picks for Week 6, complete with some insights about the games we have the most questions about. 

Away	Home	Over/Under	Prediction
Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans	46	Colts, 24-17
New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills	45	Patriots, 24-17
Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	45	Bengals, 26-21
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	47	Browns, 28-24
Green Bay Packers	Miami Dolphins	49	Packers, 31-20
Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings	N/A	Lions, 23-21
Denver Broncos	New York Jets	47.5	Broncos, 35-17
Baltimore Ravens	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	43	Ravens, 27-24
Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	N/A	Titans, 28-20
San Diego Chargers	Oakland Raiders	43	Chargers, 27-10
Chicago Bears	Atlanta Falcons	53.5	Falcons, 34-31
Washington	Arizona Cardinals	N/A	Cardinals, 26-24
Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	47	Seahawks, 30-23
New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	50	Giants, 28-24
San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	43.5	49ers, 23-16

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

What I said about the NFL being an unknown earlier is true, but I have no problem definitively saying that oddsmakers are foolish to set the over/under line between the Bears and Falcons at 53.5 points. 

Using a combination of offensive firepower and defensive ineptitude, we can easily deduce that points are going to come in droves. The Bears are 17th in the NFL in yards allowed, but that gets washed away quickly when you see they are 23rd in points allowed. 

A big problem for the Bears defense is getting stops. They have won two games this year in which they have forced seven turnovers. In their three losses, opponents have a total of four turnovers. 

The Bears also have no consistency in the running game. Their first rushing touchdown came last week and it wasn't from Matt Forte, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Fortunately for the Bears, their defense doesn't need to be on point or forcing turnovers to win in Week 6 because the Falcons are allowing the fourth-most yards and points per game. 

Unfortunately for Marc Trestman's team, they are playing in Atlanta where the Falcons are 2-0 with 93 points scored and 1,056 yards. Chicago's pass defense, which got victimized by Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson two weeks ago, has to go up against Julio Jones and Roddy White. 

You could set the over/under for this game at 100 and it still might not be enough, but 53.5 is kiddie stuff. 

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

A game between the Patriots and Bills would normally be one to bet the under on because the latter has infrequently been able to keep up with the former. This time, though, it's because the Patriots don't have a potent offense and the Bills are using Kyle Orton as their starting quarterback. 

It's strange to say the Patriots have problems on offense coming off a game in which they scored 43 points against the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals, but this league is fickle. You can go from losing by 27 one week to winning by 26 points the next. The best teams find a balance and consistency. 

So far this season, all that we can say about New England is we don't know what the team will look like. Kevin Seifert of ESPN noted the biggest difference for Tom Brady from Week 5 to Week 6 was the offensive line:

"

The Cincinnati Bengals hit or put Brady under duress on 13.2 percent of his dropbacks, a notable reduction from a figure of 20 percent in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs. In other words, Brady had a cleaner pocket to throw from in Week 5. Not surprisingly, he had his most accurate downfield passing game of the season, completing 6 of 9 passes of at least 15 yards past the line of scrimmage for 128 yards and a touchdown.

"

However, Brady will be going up against a Buffalo defense that is tied for the NFL lead with 17 sacks. As good as Cincinnati's defense is, it only has eight sacks this season. It's not enough to make me pick the Bills to win, but it does suggest this game will be closer than it seemed when the year started. 

With Kyle Orton under center for Buffalo, the Bills are only going to go so far. He did throw for over 300 yards against Detroit last week, but he struggled putting the ball in the end zone with one touchdown in three red-zone trips. 

The Bills will be fired up, looking to take control of the AFC East with a home game against their bitter rivals, but they still aren't good enough to beat New England in a close, low-scoring game. 

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Ron Antonelli/Getty Images

This is a case where the over/under is fascinating and frustrating to think about. The Broncos are one of the most prolific scoring teams in the NFL. They've scored at least 20 points in all four of their games and more than 30 twice. 

The Jets are not a prolific scoring team, to put it lightly. By points per game, only Jacksonville and Oakland are worse. By passing yards, no team is worse. Rex Ryan's defense is doing all it can to keep the game close, but you can only put so much on one unit before the weight eventually causes it to crumble. 

Things have gotten so bad for New York at quarterback that the New York Daily News is begging Rex Ryan and John Idzik to bring back Tim Tebow:

This brings me to why this game is baffling. When looking at the over/under, typically you want to think about what both teams are going to do. Since we know the Jets are going to struggle offensively due to their horrid quarterback situation and no playmakers on the outside, the onus falls on Denver to score at least 30-35 points to reach the total set. 

The Broncos are certainly capable of reaching those offensive heights, but how much will they pile on before calling off the dogs? This brings up the question of whether that will allow the Jets to get a touchdown in garbage time. 

Do you see how frustrating it is to be a gambler? Take the over because the Broncos are going to score a lot of points and the Jets are capable of showing something. I think. 

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