Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 6: Making the Call on Fantasy Football Fringe Starters

Sometimes, fantasy football is the act of disregarding nostalgia.

That player who was producing for you last year but isn't doing squat this year? Time to sit him. That player you loved to hate last year because he generally stunk but has been lighting it up so far this year? It's time to start him, folks.

Below, we'll try to dismiss nostalgia and preconceptions and get down to the nitty-gritty business of deciding how smart it is to start or sit a player this week. 

Start 'Em: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

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The easy way to advocate starting Eli Manning this week is to note that Austin Davis, a player many folks probably hadn't even heard of before this season, just put up 26 fantasy points against the Philadelphia Eagles, a defense now allowing 21.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per week, 31st in the NFL.

The Eagles not only aren't great on defense (especially against the pass, as they give up 274.2 passing yards per game, 29th in the NFL), but due to their fast-paced offense they often concede time of possession to their opponents, meaning fantasy players facing the Eagles potentially will get far more opportunities to produce than normal. 

So that's the easy way to advocate starting Manning. Matchup, matchup, matchup!

But let's not forget that Manning has been pretty solid for fantasy owners this year. He has 15 or more fantasy points in four straight weeks and is currently eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points in standard leagues.

He has a reliable target in Victor Cruz, a red-zone threat in Larry Donnell and two talented young receivers in Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. The new offensive system implemented by Ben McAdoo seems to be clicking. 

It's always a little unnerving having to start Manning, but all indications are that he's a pretty safe QB1 this week. 

Sit 'Em: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton is not playing poorly this season. In four games he's thrown for 983 yards, five touchdowns and thrown just one interception, which keeps him on pace to be pretty close to his season averages in each of those categories while dramatically cutting down on his interceptions. He's completing 61.2 percent of his passes, above his career average and just under where he finished last year (61.7). Heck, he has a 94.6 quarterback rating.

So why has his fantasy output plummeted so quickly? Because he's rushed just 14 times for 42 yards and no scores, that's why.

If Newton isn't running, he just isn't that valuable as a fantasy quarterback. In the past three seasons he's averaged 677 rushing yards and nine rushing scores, which equates to 103 total fantasy points, or about six points per week. Take away his impact in the rushing game and, as a pocket passer alone, he's nothing more than a QB2. 

Which is why I think that, until he starts making an impact on the ground, you're probably best keeping him on your bench unless you have a truly dreadful option as your QB2. Especially this week, when he has a tough matchup against a very good Cincinnati Bengals defense.

Sure, Tom Brady just posted 20 fantasy points against the Bengals, but that was in New England. In their last 10 home games, the Bengals are allowing 9.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and even that figure skews a bit high since Andrew Luck put up 32 points against Cincy in Week 14 last year. Luck is the only quarterback to score more than 12 fantasy points against the Bengals in Cincinnati in the past 10 games. 

In other words, Newton's ceiling this week feels pretty darn low. It's possible he'll start making plays in the run game again, but it's a risk I don't think you should be willing to take.

Start 'Em: Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants

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There's no question that when Rashad Jennings is healthy, he's the lead back in what has been a solid New York running game this season. But with Jennings unlikely to play with an injury, Andre Williams becomes the beneficiary of a very tasty matchup against the Eagles.

But before we get into that, Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News has more on the Jennings injury:

Williams is arguably as talented a runner as Jennings—the latter won the job by being better in pass protection and catching the ball out of the backfield—so the New York running game shouldn't miss a beat this week. And Williams has accumulated 25 fantasy points the past two weeks, so he's proven he can make the most of his opportunities. 

The Eagles give up 19.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs per game, 19th in the NFL, so the matchup is favorable for Williams. He's a very nice RB2 option for owners this week.

Sit 'Em: Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

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Stevan Ridley is one of the most frustrating players to own in fantasy football. In Weeks 2 and 5 he rushed for 214 yards, two touchdowns and accumulated 33 fantasy points. In the other three weeks of the season he's rushed for 103 yards and totaled nine fantasy points. He's Mr. Hit Or Miss.

Vereen hasn't been much more consistent for owners and has flashed less overall upside than Ridley, since when the Patriots really decide to grind things out on the ground, it's the latter who gets the majority of the carries. 

So yes, coming into Week 6, it's pretty darn hard to predict when either one of these players is worth starting. But perhaps this week the best move is simply to bench both. The Buffalo Bills are allowing just 9.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week, second in the NFL, and they're allowing just 71 rushing yards per game, also second in the NFL. 

The Patriots overcame a tough matchup in Week 5 against the Bengals, yes, but that was in New England. In Buffalo and with Tom Brady and the passing game finally getting untracked, look for the Pats to establish the passing game and lean on it against Buffalo's excellent run defense.

Start 'Em: Steve Smith Sr., WR, Baltimore Ravens

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After a brilliant start to the season, the fiery Smith was subdued in Week 5, catching just five passes for 34 yards and losing a fumble against the Indianapolis Colts. Perhaps some folks will think this suggests Smith's bubble has burst. 

Hold your horses, folks.

Smith was still targeted seven times on the afternoon, however, and now has a brilliant matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense giving up 27.2 fantasy points to opposing wideouts per week, 30th in the NFL. That figure is skewed a bit by the fact that the Bucs gave up 58 fantasy points to the Atlanta Falcons receivers in Week 3, but still, the Bucs gave up 58 fantasy points to the Atlanta Falcons receivers in Week 3!

Start Smith with confidence this week.

Sit 'Em: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

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Sammy Watkins is a rookie wide receiver, so you're always going to take the good with the bad. And there's been not only been the good—a total of 17 fantasy points the past two weeks—but also the great, like his eight receptions for 117 yards and touchdown in Week 2.

But there's also been the bad, like his three receptions for 31 yards in Week 1 or two receptions for 19 yards in Week 3. This week, I'm expecting the bad.

For starters, he has a brutal matchup against Darrelle Revis, a corner who for much of the year was stuck playing a side but on Sunday night was finally allowed to do what he does best—lock down an opposing wide receiver.

The result was A.J. Green finishing with four catches for 64 yards and a fumble when lined up against Revis, per Ben Volin of The Boston Globe.

“It was great, man. We did a lot of things game plan-wise where I can be matched up against A.J.,” Revis told Volin after the game. “My thing was just try to get up there and get physical with him and be a fly to him, just try to disrupt him as much as I could.”

I expect Revis will do the same to Watkins on Sunday, and the rookie isn't as polished yet as the elite Green. If that's the case, the promising Watkins could struggle to get anything going, and Kyle Orton is smart enough to avoid throwing on Revis. Expect a quiet afternoon for the rook.

All point totals and points-against statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues.

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