Odds for Junior-Eligible Draft Picks to Make 2014-15 NHL Rosters

When most top NHL players are drafted at age 18, even the best of the bunch typically need more time to develop before they graduate to the big league.

That's one of the reasons why young draftees aren't permitted to play in the NHL's top developmental league, the American Hockey League, until they're nearly 20 years old.

Here's a good explanation of AHL eligibility rules, from the Utica Comets website:

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American and Canadian-born players must be 20 years old by Jan. 15 of the current season in order to be eligible to play in the American Hockey League. When it comes to Europeans, they are eligible to play as long as they are not playing/or have been drafted in the Canadian Hockey League (Western Hockey League, Ontario Hockey League, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League). Same rules apply if they have enrolled in college in the United States.  The minimum age for those players is 18.

So when a player is drafted, they can either enter the NHL immediately or return to the amateur ranks. They cannot play in the AHL until they are 20 (or about to turn 20).

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Whether they were drafted in 2013 or 2014, promising draft choices who are too young for the AHL are given a nine-game window to crack an NHL lineup without burning off a year of their entry-level contracts. 

In 2013, a strong draft class saw seven of the top 10 picks jump directly into the NHL—an extraordinary group led by Calder Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon.

Here's a look at the junior-eligible players who are trying to crack NHL lineups this year, with the odds of them being able to achieve their goals.

Andre Burakovsky: Washington Capitals

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Date of Birth: February 9, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen 23rd overall by the Washington Capitals in 2013

Current Status

Not as high-profile as the other players on this list, new Capitals coach Barry Trotz has high praise for Burakovsky's playing style, as Chuck Gormley of CSN Washington reports:

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He’s got qualities that I see in players like Henrik Zetterberg. That’s a player he sort of plays like. He’s hard on pucks, he’s got a skill level that’s good and his work ethic at both ends of the ice is really, really good. He’s got a good career ahead of him if he wants it.

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Trotz is giving his speedy Swede every chance to succeed. Debuting as a second-line center on a line with Marcus Johansson and Troy Brouwer, Burakovsky scored Washington's only goal in the team's season opener but couldn't convert in the shootout. The Caps got a single point but ultimately fell to the Montreal Canadiens by a score of 2-1.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 5-1

Leon Draisaitl: Edmonton Oilers

JASON FRANSON/Associated Press

Date of Birth: October 27, 1995 (age 18)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen third overall by the Edmonton Oilers in 2014

Current Status

At 6'2" and 204 pounds, Draisaitl is a boy in a man's body. He showed a manly enough playing style to earn a shot at Edmonton's second-line center spot for Thursday's season opener, flanked by new arrival Benoit Pouliot and enigmatic Nail Yakupov.

Draisaitl fills a gaping hole in the Oilers lineup, and coach Dallas Eakins sounds like he expects Draisaitl to be a full-time fixture with the team, according to the Oilers' Twitter account: "Go play. I don't want you in awe of anything. He deserves to be here. He's earned it. He's an NHL player."

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 5-1

Jonathan Drouin: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Date of Birth: March 28, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen third overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2013

Current Status

Seven of the top 10 picks from the 2013 draft debuted with their NHL teams last year, but third-ranked Drouin was the highest pick to be returned to his junior team.

After posting 108 points in 46 games with the Halifax Mooseheads in 2013-14, Drouin has been projected as the favorite to win the Calder Trophy by NHL.com. He hasn't played in preseason due to a thumb injury and was scratched from the Lightning's lineup for Thursday's opener.

In an interview with Richard Peckham during the Lightning's fan fest, Steve Yzerman confirmed that Drouin's position is safe despite his injury but wouldn't commit to keeping the crafty playmaker in the lineup beyond the nine-game trial period.

Drouin will need to dazzle once he's healthy if he hopes to live up to his billing this season.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 3-1

Anthony Duclair: New York Rangers

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Date of Birth: August 26, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen 80th overall by the New York Rangers in 2013

Current Status

After Duclair came out of nowhere to lead the Rangers in preseason scoring, general manager Glen Sather did some wheeling and dealing to create enough roster space to sign the third-rounder to a contract and get him a spot in New York's opening night lineup.

Coach Alain Vigneault is loving what he has seen from Duclair so far, per NHL.com: "He's got the hands, the speed, the thinking with the puck. Can that continue when the season starts against a full NHL lineup with full NHL pace and intensity? He's going to get a chance to prove that. He's earned the right to start with us Thursday."

It's far from guaranteed that third-round draft picks will ever crack the NHL. If Duclair sticks with the Rangers as a 19-year-old, he should have a very bright future ahead.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 20-1

Aaron Ekblad: Florida Panthers

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Date of Birth: February 7, 1996 (age 18)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen first overall by the Florida Panthers in 2014

Current Status

Paired with veteran Brian Campbell, the youngest player with a chance to stick made his NHL debut against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, posting an assist and a plus-one rating.

"Of course, the regular season is going to be a whole different pace," Ekblad told Nate Taylor of the Sun Sentinel as he prepared for the game. "I assume it's going to be much faster. It's going to be more intense hockey, and I'm ready for it."

For his part, coach Gerard Gallant sounds like he expects Ekblad to stay with the team for the long haul. "He'll be fine," he said.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 2-1

Bo Horvat: Vancouver Canucks

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Date of Birth: April 5, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen ninth overall by the Vancouver Canucks in 2013

Current Status

Determined not to be returned to junior hockey, Horvat impressed during the Canucks' preseason but injured his shoulder in a collision with Tyler Pitlick in a preseason game against Edmonton on October 2, per TSN.

Horvat starts the season on injured reserve, also per TSN. Canucks president Trevor Linden referred to the injury as "week-by-week" on Wednesday, per Matthew Sekeres of TSN1040 Radio, but added that Horvat will get a chance to show his stuff when he's healthy.

The setback delays Horvat's NHL debut, but he'll likely get a chance to join the AHL's Utica Comets for a conditioning assignment before he suits up for the Canucks—an option that wouldn't otherwise have been available for the 19-year-old.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 8-1

Curtis Lazar: Ottawa Senators

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Date of Birth: February 2, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen 17th overall by the Ottawa Senators in 2013

Current Status

With his February birthday, Curtis Lazar misses the cutoff for AHL eligibility in 2014-15 by just a few weeks. He's looking to make his age a non-issue by sticking with the Senators.

Lazar is a strong two-way center who has impressed during preseason with his outstanding work ethic. According to Dan Seguin of CBC Ottawa, "Bryan Murray says he expects Curtis Lazar will be with the Sens long term, not just for a nine-game trial."

Murray told Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen that Lazar's play made it easy to keep him around: "Each and every game (in training camp) was outstanding. For a young player, he certainly showed he can play a two-way game. Very responsible. Paul (MacLean) had him killing penalties. I can only see a player like him expanding his role as we go forward."

Lazar tallied two shots, three hits and an impressive 62 percent success rate in the faceoff circle in his NHL debut, as the Senators fell 3-2 to the Nashville Predators.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 3-1

Darnell Nurse: Edmonton Oilers

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Date of Birth: February 4, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen seventh overall by the Edmonton Oilers in 2013

Current Status

Like Lazar, Darnell Nurse's February birthday falls just weeks after the cutoff for AHL eligibility this season. Like Lazar, Nurse is gunning to stay in the NHL. But unlike Lazar, his regular season is starting in the press box.

Nurse made Edmonton's 23-man opening-night roster but will sit out the team's first game as a healthy scratch along with other top prospect Oscar Klefbom in favor of 26-year-old training camp surprise Brad Hunt.

If Hunt manages to solidify his spot in the lineup, Nurse could be headed back to the Soo Greyhounds sooner rather than later.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 25-1

Sam Reinhart: Buffalo Sabres

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Date of Birth: November 6, 1995 (age 18)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen second overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2014

Current Status

Reinhart won't turn 19 for another month, but his strong hockey pedigree and impressive skill set is earning him a look at center on a third line that is flanked by Cody Hodgson and new Buffalo captain Brian Gionta. The pair is expected to help provide a steadying influence on the rookie.

"We looked throughout the whole lineup which combination would suit [Reinhart] the best, especially early," coach Ted Nolan told Joe Yerdon of NHL.com. "And Gionta, he's not wearing the captain's 'C' for no reason; he's a true leader."

Reinhart's first NHL game was a quiet one. He finished with no shots and two blocks in 13 minutes, 37 seconds of ice time as the Sabres fell to the Columbus Blue Jackets by a score of 3-1. Still growing into his body, there's a strong chance that Reinhart will be returned to the Kootenay Ice of the WHL.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 40-1

Nikita Zadorov: Buffalo Sabres

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Date of Birth: April 16, 1995 (age 19)

Draft Pedigree: Chosen 16th overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2013

Current Status

Russian defenseman Nikita Zadorov spent a seven-game trial with the Buffalo Sabres in 2013-14. He scored one goal before being returned to his junior team, the London Knights.

This season, Zadorov made Buffalo's 23-man opening-night roster thanks, in part, to an upper-body injury to Mark Pysyk. Coach Ted Nolan told NHL.com that the team is still deciding whether or not Zadorov will be a fit this season: "He's physically big enough and needs to work on parts of his game; we'll evaluate that decision."

With Zadorov scratched for the season opener on Thursday night, he may not get much of a look before heading back to the OHL for his third season with the London Knights.

Odds of Sticking in the NHL: 50-1