
NHL Predictions 2014: Preview and Picks for the Atlantic Division
After the NHL realigned its divisions to start the 2013-14 season, the group of eight teams in the Atlantic Division stood out as being tangibly superior to its Eastern Conference brothers in the Metropolitan Division.
Though the Metropolitan's New York Rangers ended up representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final, it was the Presidents' Trophy-winning Boston Bruins of the Atlantic that set the standard for regular-season play.
On the eve of the new 2014-15 campaign, here's a look at the ins and outs of this year's Atlantic group, as well as predictions for how the season will unfold.
The Favorite: Montreal Canadiens
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Just two years into the tenure of general manager Marc Bergevin, the Montreal Canadiens have been remade as a dynamic, balanced team that's on par with the elite squads of the Eastern Conference, both in the regular season and in the playoffs.
After winning their Northeast Division in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, the Canadiens let it be known last spring that they're back in the Stanley Cup hunt when they knocked off the Eastern Conference's top seed, the Boston Bruins, in seven games.
Despite that success, the Canadiens were aggressive about upgrading their lineup over the summer.
With an eye toward handing over the team's leadership to its young core, captain Brian Gionta left as a free agent while forward Danny Briere and defenseman Josh Gorges were traded. Trade-deadline acquisition Thomas Vanek was also allowed to move on to the Minnesota Wild after a disappointing playoffs.
New to the team: defense and faceoff specialist Manny Malhotra signed on as a free agent, as did defenseman Tom Gilbert and undrafted Czech sensation Jiri Sekac, who has been impressing with his scoring touch in the preseason. By trading Briere for P.A. Parenteau during the offeseason, the Canadiens get an offensive upgrade who's also five years younger.
Two main topics swirled around the Canadiens during the offseason: P.K. Subban's contract and the question of the captaincy.
Two years after signing a short-term bridge contract, Subban endured a contentious negotiation and fiery arbitration hearing before breaking the bank when the Canadiens agreed to give him the third-highest cap hit in the NHL for the upcoming season, per CapGeek.com, with an eight-year, $72 million contract.
The 2013 Norris Trophy winner has been a divisive figure through the first five years of his NHL career but should be entering his peak years at age 25. Subban has also been tapped as a key part of the Canadiens' leadership core.
Rather than naming a single captain, the organization has anointed Subban, fellow defenseman Andrei Markov and forwards Max Pacioretty and Tomas Plekanec as their four alternates for the upcoming season of transition.
Montreal's other key leader—and elite player—is goaltender Carey Price. He showed he's among the best in the world in 2014, winning a gold medal at the Sochi Olympics and providing an anchor for the Canadiens until he was knocked out of the playoffs by injury during the Eastern Conference Final.
Since being beaten down by the Ottawa Senators in the first round of the 2013 playoffs, the Canadiens have added more size and grit to their lineup, which augments the skill that they boast at all positions.
Look for Montreal to challenge once again for top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.
The Challenger: Boston Bruins
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The Boston Bruins were the class of the Eastern Conference in 2013-14, finishing at the top of the standings and aiming to recapture the Stanley Cup they won in 2011.
After getting bounced by the Montreal Canadiens in the second round, Boston will return with a similar lineup but will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's success.
Most notably, the team will be without 30-goal scorer Jarome Iginla, who couldn't be signed due to Boston's salary-cap limitations. The good news for Bruins fans is that restricted free agents Reilly Smith and Torey Krug agreed to matching one-year, $1.4 million contracts this week, per ESPN.com. Both Smith and Krug were young players on the rise last season, who will be expected to carry more of the load going forward.
Beyond Iginla, Boston's only other departures were secondary. Fourth-line winger Shawn Thornton signed a free-agent contract with the Florida Panthers while backup goalie Chad Johnson inked a deal with the New York Islanders.
Budget issues also prevented the Bruins from bringing in any significant new faces. Two-time Olympian Simon Gagne remains in camp on a professional tryout and could make the team as a depth forward, but new blood is more likely to come up from the Providence Bruins. Forwards like Matt Fraser and Ryan Spooner have shown well in preseason and could help plug the holes up front.
The Bottom-Dweller: Buffalo Sabres
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The Buffalo Sabres finished last in the Atlantic Division—and the Eastern Conference—in 2013-14.
The Sabres will get better, but last year they finished 14 points behind the Florida Panthers, who are also on an upswing, and 32 points behind the sixth-place Toronto Maple Leafs. The mood around the team should improve, but it's unlikely that will translate into a move up the standings.
Most of Buffalo's offseason player personnel moves were positive. Defenseman Christian Ehrhoff and forward Ville Leino were released through compliance buyouts, while secondary players Cory Conacher and John Scott also left town.
To replace them, the Sabres brought in two excellent leaders from Montreal in Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges. They also brought back free agent Matt Moulson and drafted second-overall pick Sam Reinhart.
The Sabres look dramatically different in net after 11-season Sabre Ryan Miller left at the 2014 trade deadline. Michal Neuvirth and Jhonas Enroth both have potential, but for the moment, they're a downgrade after Miller's generally fine work in Buffalo over the last decade.
Expect to see signs of hope from the Sabres, but don't expect them to move out of their position as one of the front-runners in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes at next year's draft.
Best Old Rivalry: Montreal Canadiens-Boston Bruins
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Since their induction into the National Hockey League in 1924, the Boston Bruins have been facing off against the Montreal Canadiens for nearly 90 years, creating one of the most storied rivalries in sports.
Depending where your allegiances lie, key moments through history include the Rocket Richard riot, which was kindled by a Habs-Bruins game in 1955, The Canadiens' elimination of the defending champion Bruins in 1971 and Don Cherry's infamous too-many-men penalty when he coached Boston against Montreal during the 1979 playoffs.
Though Montreal has the edge in the rivalry, Boston has been the better team in recent times, especially in the postseason. When the Habs beat the Bruins in seven games in the second round of the 2014 playoffs, the balance of power shifted back—for now.
The Canadiens and the Bruins are still the elite teams in the Atlantic Division. With plenty of bad blood still simmering from last year's playoffs, watch for more high-intensity battles this season, kicking off on Thursday, October 16 in Montreal.
Best New Rivalry: Toronto Maple Leafs-Buffalo Sabres
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With four teams from the NHL's Original Six playing in the Atlantic Division, the idea of a "new rivalry" is somewhat relative.
Separated by a national border and an 89-mile stretch of freeway, the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs are generally seen as friends more than foes. The last couple of preseasons are starting to change that perception.
Home-and-home games during the 2013-14 preseason started off mildly enough. The Leafs won Game 1 in an epic 15-round shootout, but the real sparks flew the following night in Toronto, where an incident between John Scott of Buffalo and Phil Kessel of Toronto precipitated a line brawl that included a goalie fight between Ryan Miller and Jonathan Bernier. New Leaf David Clarkson also earned himself a 10-game suspension for leaving the bench to participate in the altercation.
After the dust eventually settled, home ice dictated the results during the regular season, where Toronto emerged with a 3-2 series win.
This year, the fireworks have been a bit dimmer, but the series has still been scrappy. Toronto won both sides of the home-and-home, with notable fisticuffs between Dion Phaneuf vs. Drew Stafford and David Clarkson vs. Cody McCormick in Game 1. Clarkson's orbital bone was fractured in his fight, but he hopes to be available for the Maple Leafs on opening night, according to Michael Traikos of the National Post.
Thanks to long stretches of ineptitude from both sides over the past 44 seasons, the Leafs and Sabres have met just once in the postseason. Buffalo won the 1999 Eastern Conference Final before falling to the Dallas Stars.
Given how much bad blood can boil between these two teams in preseason, sparks would certainly fly if were to meet today in the playoffs.
Best Line: Milan Lucic, David Krejci and Loui Eriksson of the Boston Bruins
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Tradition rules the day in the Atlantic Division, so this year's best line will be a variation on last season's top grouping. A healthy Loui Eriksson should have no trouble slotting in on the right wing with Milan Lucic and David Krejci of the Boston Bruins.
Between his two concussions, Eriksson managed just 61 games and 37 points with the Bruins after being acquired as the centerpiece of the Tyler Seguin trade during the summer of 2013. Now fully healthy, it's expected that he'll slide into Jarome Iginla's old spot alongside the tried and true pairing of Lucic and Krejci.
Though concussions tend to cause cumulative damage, Eriksson was a durable player before arriving in Boston, missing just three games in the previous five seasons. He scored 36 goals for the Dallas Stars in 2008-09 and could reach a similar level with a full season's work on Boston's top line.
Best Defense Pairing: Erik Karlsson and Marc Methot of the Ottawa Senators
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With all due respect to past Norris Trophy winners P.K. Subban of Montreal and Zdeno Chara of Boston, the standout defensive pair in the Atlantic in 2014-15 will be Erik Karlsson and Marc Methot of the Ottawa Senators.
Though the Senators will struggle to score goals and their goaltending won't be as airtight as it was two years ago, Karlsson and Methot are poised for career years. Karlsson has just been named team captain at age 24 and is fully recovered from the nasty Achilles injury he suffered in February of 2013. Steady veteran Methot is now 29 and is entering a contract year, where he'll be looking to prove his value.
Senators general manager Bryan Murray told Lisa Kelly of the Canadian Press that he wants to keep Methot in the fold. "We are trying to indicate to Marc that we’d really like to keep him and sign him here,” Murray said, per The Globe and Mail. “There’s no other intent on our part, but I haven’t heard back from his agent."
Murray's also quick to praise Karlsson on the eve of the new season. “I think he’s back to where he can be as a player and he’ll show that he can take charge of helping us be a real good team over the course of time.”
Best Goalie: Carey Price of the Montreal Canadiens
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Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins won the Vezina Trophy for the 2013-14 season after leading the league with seven regular-season shutouts, placing second to Josh Harding with a .930 save percentage, and finishing fourth in the league with a 2.04 goals-against average, all while backing his team to a Presidents' Trophy.
This year, expect to see Carey Price eclipse Rask's achievements in the Atlantic Division.
Though his numbers weren't as good as Rask's, Price had a career year in 2013-14, ranking among the top five in the league with six shoutouts and a .927 save percentage while placing 14th overall with a 2.32 goals-against average.
His numbers didn't change much in the playoffs. Price showed that he could make the big saves as he backstopped his team to series wins against the fiery Tampa Bay Lightning and rugged Boston Bruins before he was knocked out of playoff action with an injury after a collision with Chris Kreider of the New York Rangers.
Price's crowning achievement of the 2013-14 season was his performance in the Sochi Olympics, where he posted three shutouts and allowed just two goals in five games as Team Canada skated to its second consecutive gold medal.
Price is now 27, and we're seeing glimpses of his competitive fire as he enters his goaltending prime. As his Montreal Canadiens mature around him, expect to see more of that determination on display, especially in big-game situations.
Projected 2014-15 Standings
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1. Montreal Canadiens: The Habs' transition period will be a success, with young leaders Subban, Pacioretty and Price all stepping up to guide the team to the top of the Atlantic.
2. Boston Bruins: Jarome Iginla has departed, and Zdeno Chara is another year older. The Bruins will still be good, but not as good as last season.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning: Though the Lightning drop a rank from their second-place standing last season, their point total will rise thanks to a full season from Hart Trophy candidate Steven Stamkos and the contributions of new additions like Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle and rookies Jonathan Drouin and Vladislav Namestnikov.
4. Detroit Red Wings: With a healthier lineup that includes a solid contribution from center Stephen Weiss, the Wings will enjoy a smoother season but will remain on the playoff bubble.
5. Ottawa Senators: With few on-ice changes for he new season, the Senators will continue adapting to the post-Alfredsson years under youthful-but-enthusiastic captain Erik Karlsson.
6. Toronto Maple Leafs: Despite new-school summer hirings like boy wonder Kyle Dubas as assistant general manager, the Leafs still have one-and-a-half feet firmly planted in old-school thinking, which will lead to conflict. In 2014-15, the Leafs' on-ice challenges will be secondary to the the power struggles behind the scenes at Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment.
7. Florida Panthers: The Panthers' new lineup additions will improve their on-ice product and might even draw some paying customers to the cavernous BB&T Center. The team remains a long way from playoff contention and will struggle to move up the ranks of the Atlantic.
8. Buffalo Sabres: After jettisoning all their high-priced veterans over the last couple of seasons, the Sabres will be a more stable team in 2014-15, but still won't win much. Expect the main focus in Buffalo to remain on whether the Sabres will be able to win the draft lottery and scoop up hockey's next generational player, Connor McDavid.
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