College Football Picks Week 6: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams
As if to apologize for the past few weeks, college football is back with a bang to kick off the month of October.
In a sense, the apology is unnecessary, as a lackluster slate on paper produced a number of high-quality affairs and shocking upsets in the infancy of conference play.
Imagine what the schedule has in store now, with plenty of must-see contests bunched into one week.
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The action is particularly thick in the SEC and the Big Ten, and there's a Stanford-Notre Dame matchup for good measure. Let's take a look at the slate of odds for the Top 25 teams and break down a few in-depth.
Week 6 Top 25 Odds and Predictions
| Wake Forest | No. 1 Florida State | FSU -38 | FSU |
| Arizona | No. 2 Oregon | ORE -22.5 | FINAL -- ARI 31, ORE 24 |
| No. 3 Alabama | No. 11 Ole Miss | ALA -7 | ALA |
| No. 4 Oklahoma | No. 25 TCU | OKL -6 | TCU |
| No. 15 LSU | No. 5 Auburn | AUB -7.5 | AUB |
| No. 6 Texas A&M | No. 12 Mississippi State | MISS -2 | A&M |
| No. 7 Baylor | Texas | BAY -15.5 | BAY |
| Utah | No. 8 UCLA | UCLA -13 | UCLA |
| No. 14 Stanford | No. 9 Notre Dame | STAN - 2 | ND |
| No. 19 Nebraska | No. 10 Michigan State | MSU -7 | NEB |
| Vanderbilt | No. 13 Georgia | GEO -33.5 | GEO |
| Arizona State | No. 16 USC | USC -12.5 | USC |
| No. 17 Wisconsin | Northwestern | WIS -8.5 | WIS |
| Utah State | No. 18 BYU | BYU -21 | BYU |
| No. 20 Ohio State | Maryland | OSU -8.5 | MD |
| Iowa State | No. 21 Oklahoma State | OKU -17 | OKU |
| SMU | No. 22 East Carolina | ECU -41 | SMU |
| Texas Tech | No. 23 Kansas State | KSU -14 | KSU |
Note: All odds, updated as of 8 p.m. ET on Oct. 2, are courtesy of Odds Shark. AP poll via The Associated Press.
Odds to Avoid
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Mississippi State (-2)
Say hello to the king of must-avoid matchups.
On one side of the ring are the No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies. They have fully put the Johnny Manziel era behind them thanks to the stellar play of sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill, who has quickly ballooned his stat line to 1,745 yards and 17 touchdowns to two interceptions.
As a result, the Aggies rank No. 2 in the nation with an average of 51.2 points per game.
In the opposite corner, though, are the No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs, a budding national power that ranks just outside the top 20 in scoring thanks to 41.3 points per game on average. The leader is quarterback Dak Prescott, who has 964 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions and another 378 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Oh, and he just led the Bulldogs to an upset of LSU in Baton Rouge.
The knee-jerk reaction seems to be with Texas A&M. That is how Vegas initially came out swinging, but things shifted to the Bulldogs' side as the week progressed. Perhaps the line is on to something, right?
As ESPN CollegeFootball notes, many would argue, and perhaps rightfully so, that the senior is more reliable in a matchup such as this:
Feel free to add the upset of LSU and a bye week to prepare, not to mention the fact that the Aggies needed overtime to down Arkansas (although that is not as horrible as it would have been in years past.).
This one could go either way. Superb halftime adjustments and the fact that the Aggies have outscored opponents by 59 points in the fourth quarter this year tilt things in their favor, but is this really a line to invest hard-earned cash on? Probably not.
Prediction: Aggies 35, Bulldogs 30
No. 19 Nebraska vs. No. 10 Michigan State (-7)
Two teams that impose their will through the ground game and ground defense have a touchdown spread? Please.
No. 19 Nebraska may be the underdog, but Bo Pelini's team ranks No. 3 in the nation in rushing, as a number of names contribute an average of 354.8 yards per game:
| Ameer Abdullah | 114 | 833 | 7.3 | 57 (TD) | 8 |
| Tommy Armstrong Jr. | 50 | 420 | 8.4 | 42 | 2 |
| Imani Cross | 34 | 224 | 6.6 | 62 (TD) | 3 |
| Terrell Newby | 35 | 176 | 5.0 | 43 | 3 |
Michigan State comes in at No. 20 thanks to 252.0 yards on the ground per game, led by reliable senior back Jeremy Langford, who has 340 yards and three scores on 5.5 yards per carry.
The Spartans are known for their defense, although that notion is being put to the test this year, as Mark Dantonio's team is surrendering an average of 20.3 points per game. The 46 points allowed to Oregon might skew the numbers, but the Spartans also surrendered 14 points to both Eastern Michigan and Wyoming. That's not what we are accustomed to seeing from the school.
Many will point to the fact that Pelini is 2-1 against Michigan State since 2011, but he is not buying into talk about past success, as he explained in a recent news conference:
"We've had some success, but they've had success, too. It's who executes on any given day. … I don't buy into, I don't worry about what's happened in the past or anything like that. It's about what's gonna happen Saturday night and how two football teams are gonna play Saturday night.
"
Coach speak is for coaches and players, though. That 41-28 Spartans victory last season was the team's first in eight attempts, and the 182 rushing yards allowed were the second most the unit has given up in the past two seasons.
In that game, Ameer Abdullah rushed for 123 yards. It stands to reason that he and the Cornhuskers as a whole are better this year. Meanwhile, the Michigan State defense has not lived up to expectations.
This one could go either way, and, as an added negative, the spread is too large. Steer clear despite the big-game allure.
Prediction: Cornhuskers 48, Spartans 44
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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