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Brandon Crawford's fourth-inning grand slam started the scoring in Pittsubrgh, and Madison Bumgarner did the rest for the Giants.
Brandon Crawford's fourth-inning grand slam started the scoring in Pittsubrgh, and Madison Bumgarner did the rest for the Giants.Associated Press

Updated 2014 World Series Odds for Each of MLB's 8 Division Series Contenders

Jason CataniaOct 2, 2014

The party that is the 2014 Major League Baseball postseason officially has started, the guests have arrived—although two have left already—and drinks (i.e., champagne) have been served.

The two Wild Card Games are in the books and the four division series are about to get underway, so we know not only who's in and who's out, but also who plays whom.

With the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates gone and the two ALDS matchups set for Thursday, Oct. 2, it's time to lay out the odds for the eight remaining teams when it comes to winning it all.

The previous odds have been shaken up a bit.

San Francisco Giants (NL Wild Card Winner, No. 4 Seed)

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Madison Bumgarner was dominant in the NL Wild Card Game, but he can only start one game in the NLDS.
Madison Bumgarner was dominant in the NL Wild Card Game, but he can only start one game in the NLDS.

The San Francisco Giants are on to the next round, and that alone gives their World Series-winning odds a bit of a boost, simply because they've gotten past the do-or-die Wild Card Game and moved on to a five-game series.

That's not the only reason why, though. While ace Madison Bumgarner was an absolute beast in hurling a four-hit shutout of the Pirates on Wednesday night, the offense produced plenty of production to tally eight runs on 11 hits.

Add it all up, and it would seem San Francisco gained some momentum as the team moves on to the NLDS.

Except: Up next is the Washington Nationals, who are the NL's top seed and arguably the most complete club in the sport right now, and the Giants have to wait until Game 3 to use Bumgarner again. In other words, their odds improved with the play-in game victory, but they didn't improve by much.

For what it's worth, the Pirates had slightly better odds in the initial listing before the playoffs started, because Pittsburgh has a deeper, more talented roster than San Francisco does. The problem, of course, was getting by Bumgarner.

Odds: 10-1

Kansas City Royals (AL Wild Card Winner, No. 4 Seed)

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The Kansas City Royals improved their postseason odds just by advancing from a do-or-die game to a full series.
The Kansas City Royals improved their postseason odds just by advancing from a do-or-die game to a full series.

So much for the Athletics, who had the best odds of all the Wild Card entrants entering the postseason, primarily because of top-notch arms like Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija and Sonny Gray.

Well, when the Kansas City Royals bunted and stole their way to the win in Tuesday night's extra-inning affair, the focus shifted to baseball's best story of the moment.

As thrilling as said story is, however, it's still a lot to ask for K.C. to make it past the incredibly potent Los Angeles Angels offense, fueled by soon-to-be-named MVP Mike Trout and friends.

The Royals rotation is going to have its hands full trying to tame Trout, Albert Pujols and the rest of the gang, a task that falls on, in order, lefty Jason Vargas in Game 1, followed by right-handers Yordano Ventura and James Shields, as T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports.

Manager Ned Yost explained his choice of Vargas for the opener, via Sullivan:

"

We like the fact that he's a veteran guy. He's very composed and it's going to be a pretty electric atmosphere. We just thought that he was the right guy to start Game 1. ...We like [Vargas] pitching in this park. His ERA is two runs less on the road. We feel like Vargy can get us off to a good start.

"

The former Angel posted a 4.53 ERA at home in 2014, but he was, in fact, much better on the road, as his 2.73 ERA indicates. Maybe his familiarity with many of the hitters in the L.A. lineup will help too.

Otherwise, the Royals will have their work cut out for them when it comes to 1) limiting how much the Angels score and 2) keeping up because of their own lack of power.

Odds: 9-1

St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champions, No. 3 Seed)

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A lot is resting on Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who is up against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS.
A lot is resting on Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who is up against Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS.

If you're going to watch just one of the four Game 1s from the Division Series round, make it this one Friday night.

With Cy Young favorite Clayton Kershaw and St. Louis Cardinals stud Adam Wainwright—two of the top five starters in the game—going up against each other for just the third time ever and first since 2012, we're liable to see something special every time a pitch is thrown.

Kershaw goes in as the most dominant arm around (21-3, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.8 K/9), but we all remember what happened the last time he was on a mound in October—against the Cardinals, no less.

The outcome of this should-be-epic showdown is going to set the tone for the series, and if St. Louis loses, it will put a ton of pressure on Lance Lynn in Game 2, because the Cardinals have to be wondering what young righty Michael Wacha is capable of coming off a shoulder injury.

Odds: 8-1

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Los Angeles Angels (AL West Champions, No. 1 Seed)

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The Angels need Mike Trout to perform under the bright lights of the playoffs for the first time.
The Angels need Mike Trout to perform under the bright lights of the playoffs for the first time.

From the Angels' perspective, facing the Royals appears to be a better matchup than the Athletics and their deep starting rotation would have been.

Kansas City's starters are solid, but they're more about eating innings than shutting down—or sitting down—the opposition. To wit, the Royals rotation struck out just 17.3 percent of batters faced in 2014, which ranks as the fifth-lowest in MLB. (The A's, by comparison, rang up 20.7 percent, which was sixth-most.)

That bodes well for the Angels, who make a good amount of contact and tend to do a lot of damage when they do: Their .147 isolated power (ISO) checks in as the fifth-best mark.

This is a talented and deep lineup that boasts an above-average weighted on-base average (wOBA) at just about every position, from Trout in center (.402) to catcher Chris Iannetta (.343) to Kole Calhoun in right (.341) to Pujols at first (.340) to second baseman Howie Kendrick (.328). If Josh Hamilton, who is battling through side soreness, can give L.A. anything, that's just gravy.

While the starting pitching is a concern, Jered Weaver should provide some stability in Game 1, particularly since it's at home, where he owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. And rookie Matt Shoemaker told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times he has "no doubt" he will pitch after recovering from a strained left rib cage. That tilts things a bit more in the Angels' direction and ups their odds just a tad too.

Odds: 6-1

Baltimore Orioles (AL East Champions, No. 2 Seed)

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Game 1 starter Chris Tillman isn't a true No. 1, but he's the Orioles' ace.
Game 1 starter Chris Tillman isn't a true No. 1, but he's the Orioles' ace.

In the Detroit Tigers, the Baltimore Orioles might be up against the best collection of starters left in the postseason on the AL side, but they like their chances with the man they're sending to the mound in Game 1.

Even though Chris Tillman is making his playoff debut Thursday evening, he's been working toward this over the course of a fantastic second half.

Here's how good Tillman has been, from Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun:

"

He had a remarkable second half, continued his emergence as a leader in the Orioles starting rotation and continued to gain the confidence of manager Buck Showalter...

Before his last start of the season on Friday—which was essentially just a tune-up for the postseason—Tillman recorded 20 consecutive starts in which he allowed three earned runs or fewer, tied with Steve Barber for the second-longest streak in Orioles history. In that span, he had a 2.21 ERA and held opponents to a .214 batting average.

The Orioles have won 11 of his last 12 starts, the only loss coming last week in Toronto.

"

If Tillman and the rest of the rotation can give the team even six solid innings, the O's dynamic bullpen is going to make it tough for the Tigers to score late in games.

As for the other aspects, Baltimore's big bats, namely home run leader Nelson Cruz and uber-consistent Adam Jones, need to do damage when they get the chance. And the Orioles need to continue to play steady defense, an area where they have a large advantage over the Tigers' mediocre gloves.

Odds: 6-1

Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Champions, No. 2 Seed)

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Matt Kemp regained his mojo with a monster second half in which he hit .309 with 17 homers.
Matt Kemp regained his mojo with a monster second half in which he hit .309 with 17 homers.

For all the talk of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the Los Angeles Dodgers offense somehow has been overlooked.

That's just silly, though, considering how potent the lineup was in the second half. In fact, L.A. topped MLB in both wOBA (.333) and WAR (14.2) after the break, thanks to the strong finishes from Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonalez, Carl Crawford and even utility man Justin Turner.

Plus, this team can draw on last year's run to the NLCS, as Michael Lananna of MLB.com writes:

"

"I think this team has a lot of swagger," Crawford said. "It's no secret."

Part of that swagger comes from last year's experience. 

"I think people from last year learned a lot about themselves, have grown and know how to handle that pressure of being in the playoffs," outfielder Matt Kemp said. "I've been in the playoffs a couple times, it's intense. It's not something you can just go in and be ready for."

"

Speaking of Kemp, he was the NL Player of the Month for September after hitting .322 with 21 runs, nine homers and 25 RBI—the last two of which led baseball. (Technically, though, Kemp tied for the RBI lead—with Gonzalez.)

Other than the shaky bullpen, the biggest question heading into Friday's first game is the status of Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is recovering from left shoulder soreness that has kept him out since Sept. 12. The southpaw threw 45 pitches in a simulated game Wednesday, according to the team, and as long as he checks out, Ryu should go in Game 3.

Oh, and in case you're wondering, there are indications, via Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles, the Dodgers could go with Kershaw on short rest if there is a Game 4.

Odds: 5-1

Detroit Tigers (AL Central Champions, No. 3 Seed)

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Max Scherzer will go for the Tigers against the Orioles in the first game of the ALDS.
Max Scherzer will go for the Tigers against the Orioles in the first game of the ALDS.

The Detroit Tigers are in good shape for Thursday's Game 1, what with last year's AL Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer, set to start. He'll be followed by Justin Verlander and David Price, so the rotation is set up well, even after the club had to use Price in Game 162 to secure the AL Central crown.

There are a couple of things to consider, though. The first is just how manager Brad Ausmus will use Anibal Sanchez out of the bullpen now that the starter has recovered from a pectoral strain that kept him out for most of the final two months. Ausmus did say, however, that he expects to use Sanchez in big spots.

"I'm fully confident with him pitching in high-leverage situations," Ausmus said, according to James Schmehl of MLive.com. "This is a guy who has excellent stuff. He's battle-tested and I don't think he'll have any problem coming out of the bullpen."

That could be a big weapon for the Tigers, especially given that unit's struggles throughout 2014.

The other consideration—and one that is of much higher concern—is the pelvis injury that could limit Rajai Davis, the team's starting center fielder and biggest stolen-base threat, or even keep him off the division series roster altogether, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.

That could lead to something nobody wants to see: Detroit having to turn to the likes of Ezequiel Carrera and/or Don Kelly to fill in.

Odds: 5-1

Washington Nationals (NL East Champions, No. 1 Seed)

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Coming off his no-hitter in the final game of the season, Jordan Zimmermann is ready for October.
Coming off his no-hitter in the final game of the season, Jordan Zimmermann is ready for October.

Now that the Washington Nationals know they're facing the Giants in Game 1 Friday afternoon, we should find out soon how manager Matt Williams aligns his rotation, which is the deepest in the majors.

It's so deep, in fact, that Tanner Roark—who put up a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 198.2 innings, each of which ranked third on the team—is expected to be on the outside looking in. As Adam Kilgore of the The Washington Post writes: "The Nationals are expected to start [Stephen] Strasburg in Game 1 followed by Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez."

There's always the chance for second-guessing, but the Nationals should consider the choice a sort of can't-go-wrong decision.

Washington also gets to take some comfort in the fact that San Francisco likely can only use Bumgarner once in the NLDS after the ace left-hander hurled a complete-game shutout—and threw 109 pitches in doing so—to get the Giants to this round.

That's the sort of advantage that comes from finishing with the top seed and getting to face the Wild Card Game winner. As the best team in the NL, the Nationals earned that. Now it's time to find out if they can capitalize with a trip to the National League Championship Series for the first time since the return to D.C.

Odds: 4-1

Statistics are accurate through Oct. 1 and are courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

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